The first quarter of 2010 is closed and the results are in. My picks surpassed the primary indices by a large margin. The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010 , was the culmination of a process presented to our readers and finally narrowed down to the select group using final prices from Monday, December 28, 2009.

For comparison I tracked the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ. Each of these produced positive results for the quarter.

Many retail investors have been shrieking as General Electric (GE) hovers around ten year lows and has gone nowhere all year while almost everything else has appreciated. GE is on hot lists and not lists for 2010.

It is one of my holdover picks from 2009 and if it does not improve in the next few days will be my only loser -- for the other, a winner, see: Chasing Value: 2010 -- #3 EZCORP.

If stocks were drums then there would be no stock that I have been pounding louder than Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) for the last decade!

The stock has been moving upward every day for over a week gaining more than 50% in that time. It is up about 11% to $152.00 in mid day trading.

It was only two days ago that I posted Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical's right price outlining why the stock was a value, but determining the exact value was not possible. If there was anyone that heeded my call then, they must be smiling today.

It was July 1, 2008 when I first posted Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times. The title speaks for itself. This update, after nine weeks and horrible market conditions, is through Friday October 3, 2008.

The index for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed Friday at 1,099.23 , down 14.12%.

Each of my five picks is beating the market and three of the five are actually up despite crushing news in the financial sector, unemployment and housing. Congress did pass a Wall Street backstop/bailout bill that President Bush has signed, but only after adding another 450 pages and $130 billion to the amount. Although the five stocks have averaged a 0.75% loss, as intended, they easily beat the S&P by 13.37%.

Here are the five stocks that I still think are worth considering. For my original rationale see the linked story above.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It closed Friday at $66.16 -- up 2.75%. JNJ was featured in Barron's this month as the most respected from the top 100 companies in the world.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It closed October 3 at $46.08 -- up 0.06% 0.62% Teva (of Isreal) is the largest generic drug company in the world and just got bigger through the acquisition of Barr Pharmaceuticals last month.

It was only yesterday that I wrote about Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), noting the favorable metrics and that I put it on my watch list. And this morning I find that Gold & platinum prices soared to new highs, with gold futures setting a new record of $952.40 an ounce.

It seems investors the world over are rediscovering the precious metal after years of neglect. How could you expect anything else with social unrest, war and recession fears on the front pages of every newspaper, with China and India growing rapidly, placing high demand on all commodities, and with a head-in-the-sand administration just now lifting itself up to take a gander at the last few months of its dubious leadership.

Despite recession fears, there is also the serious possibility of dramatic inflation in the next few years based on deficit spending, the ever expanding federal government and lack of concern for the value (buying power) of the currency. It's pitiful. Gold has been an historic hedge against inflation, so why should now be any different?This has ignited one of my 2008 picks Chasing Value: Anglo American (AAUK) is down...but!, which has moved up sharply in the last week.

I do not know where the ceiling is on gold prices, but it does not seem historically high, and I still think AAUK and FCX belong on everyone's watch list.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.

But wait ... there's more! In the giving spirit of the holidays, here's a bonus pick for bargain-hunters looking for stocks under the $10 threshold. Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ: SWKS), manufactures semiconductors that are used primarily in wireless telephone handsets and infrastructure products. Nearly 40% of the company's sales are thanks to Motorola (NYSE: MOT) and Sony Ericsson Mobile.

The firm has been a solid performer in the earnings confessional of late, topping analysts' expectations consistently for the past five quarters, by an average surprise of nearly 15%. On November 1, the company reported fourth-quarter profit of $22 million, or 14 cents per share, a penny above Street expectations and a welcome change from a year-ago loss of $96.4 million (60 cents per share). Looking ahead to the current (first) quarter, SWKS officials targeted first-quarter profit -- excluding items -- of 15 to 17 cents per share.

Do your homework and buy when other investors are afraid: sound advice from Ken Kam, portfolio manager of the Masters 100 fund. In this edition of StockWatch: Between the Bells, the Marketocracy co-founder offers insight into his investment strategy.

Agreeing with recent StockWatch contributors, Ken says now is the time to be bullish. The ongoing mortgage meltdown may have spooked the credit markets, but companies themselves are doing well. Ken sees choice buying opportunities available for investors who have done their research.

Alas, Ken says it's still too early to return to the housing sector, despite discounted shares throughout the sector. The Federal Reserve's rate cut last month may have eased the worries of securitized mortgage owners, but the immediate future looks gray for homebuilders.

Instead, Ken recommends hunting for opportunity in the energy sector. Pausing recently after three years of growth, the energy sector now looks primed to gush again, if oil's unprecedented highs are any indicator.

Just looking for a hot tip? Ken's got one for you: Elan (NYSE: ELN). With buyout buzz surrounding its partner Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB), Elan could soon make a play for full rights to their joint multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri.

Want more tips? Check out these recent StockWatch interviews:

• Midas Funds portfolio manager Thomas Winmill
• Timothy Sykes, author of An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund
• AOL Money Coach Hilary Kramer
  

When I last wrote about Schlumberger LTD (NYSE: SLB) in January, the stock was trading at $60 and I predicted it to hit $80 in early 2007. SLB hit $80 around June, and then kept going even stronger than I'd expected. The stock was up over $110 until Friday, when its earnings announcement sent the stock down almost 10%. SLB's decline was part of a larger stock-market tumble, but the company was also punished for its declining results in North America.

Personally, I think this decline only creates a chance to buy. After all, SLB's net income was up 35% for the quarter, driven mostly by its international efforts. SLB has been assiduously building its international profile, and developing its ability to deliver custom services in each foreign location, and so I'm not surprised the company's bottom line is reaping the benefits of these efforts.

I also expect this growth to continue. SLB's equipment and services are aimed at the kind of unconventional drilling needed to find new sources -- the type of drilling that will only become more important as we keep using up reserves. As I wrote in January, SLB is one of the top two companies in the world for just about every type of product and service it offers, and it invests heavily in R&D to maintain its competitive edge.

Oil is a cyclical business and SLB has to deal with some unreliable governments, so this is a somewhat risky stock, but I think it has potential to keep growing and to make you some money if you get it at the right price.

Type of Stock: One of the leading oil services companies in the world.

Price Target: I'd be tempted to grab the stock around $100, where it's trading after Friday's tumble, but my advice would be to sit tight and see where it goes early in the week. You may be able to grab it in the mid $90s, which I think would leave you some room to enjoy some nice growth.

Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing.

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage

But what about oil?
But what about the dollar?
Is it enough?
Is it too much because of inflation?
Are they behind the curve?
Is it wrong that hedge funds get bailed out?

I have no objections to any boilerplate questions about the Fed and its rate cuts. They make sense. I do, however, occasionally want to suspend suspicion and cynicism and even, yes, skepticism, for the moment after something as monumental as yesterday's half-point cut.

I say that because sometimes my job conflicts with the need to be the skeptical reporter. That's because there's an overriding need on this site and in what I do for a living, which is try to make people money.

People want to know how the market will react, they want to know if it is time to buy, or too late to buy, or okay to buy, or good to sell. Those questions are obfuscators. They are theoretical. They get in the way of making money, and if answered incorrectly, they block the chance for making money.

Of course all of those issues are concerns, chiefly oil. It's not "good" that oil is going higher, even though to anyone with a car, it is obvious that it hasn't filtered through. I paid $2.60 yesterday, a dollar lower than I would think I would have had to pay given the price of crude. Weak dollar, possible inflation flare-up -- all bad.

But the simple answer is that things were not right going into the meeting. Big things. You shouldn't have T-bills so high when the 10-year is so low. That's 105 degrees on the thermometer. Those who fought 50 basis points, thinking it is too much, that it means panic, are the same people who would deny children antibiotics lest they scare the parents! It's all nonsense. Retail, autos and banks are real economy sectors, and everyone knew they were hurting.

For about 16 months I have been writing about business news, the over-all market, pet peeves and some stocks I like. At times I have responded to inquiries in the comments section or follow-up posts. Sometimes I have responded directly to some of our regular readers. Many of our readers are quite-well versed in the investment world and the stock market in particular; and I have learned some things from them too. On many occasions something a reader has commented on has stimulated another story, and I have done several sagas during my tenure.

BloggingStocks has improved every month and when I look at the company I am keeping lately I am flattered to be among them. Our editors have been extremely encouraging and supportive. One of the best features about this site that I think puts us head and shoulders above others is the almost instant feedback afforded by the comments section and the dialog that ensues. This is not possible in magazines or sites trying to compete online with large business journals.

Back on August 16, with the Dow opening under 13,000 for the first time since April, our BloggingStocks experts outlined a number of stock plays to ride out this volatile market. Picks ranged from Dow components and other household names to obscure business-to-business giants and foreign market leaders.

It goes without saying that it's pretty early to begin seriously evaluating our recommendations, but there's no harm in checking in on our stock plays.

Some performed better than others, obviously, but we happily report that all of our picks have gained since the feature ran! Seven picks are beating the Dow, which has gained about 2.95% since its August 15 close. One pick, Starbucks, is behind the Dow but ahead of the Nasdaq Composite Index, while three are trailing the Nasdaq.



Sheldon Liber's pick, Huaneng Power International Inc. (NYSE: HNP), leads the pack, despite one analyst's downgrade of China's top energy utility one day after our stock picks ran. Shares of HNP closed Thursday at $45.62, climbing 20.0% from $37.99 in the two weeks following the volatile-market feature.

The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) has been a big disappointment to me this year and to long-term shareholders it has been worse.

The brutal housing market, slowing construction, tapped-out consumers, tightening credit markets, not to mention rampant company mismanagement, have all played their part. Then you have the competition from Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), so maybe I was just early and there is a lot of opportunity ahead. I tend to think so, but this story is about the sale of Home Depot's Supply Unit:

The original deal was for private equity firms Bain Capital Partners, Carlyle Group and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice to purchase price HD Supply for $10.3 billion, now reduced to $8.5 billion. This is $1.8 billion less, but that is not the end of the story. Home Depot will be receiving 17.476% less money but is selling 12.5% less of the company so the real difference is a 4.976% reduction in the price. This is not such a bad deal since it now shares in the upside of the new entity's future. Some might argue a path to an upside that will be paved by a better management group.

Although I am sure I am in the minority on this issue, I think The Home Depot negotiated a good deal given the circumstances. It is better for all concerned. The banks have less exposure, the private equity buyers have less risk and a lower purchase price and HD gets to close the deal with some future upside. This may actually work out better than the original deal.

Does anyone believe that the new owners will not outpace HD's return on equity or invested capital? I would bet that remaining 12.5% interest in HD Supply doubles in value faster than Home Depot's stock value. Interestingly, while the words I read here and there make this deal out as a disappointment the action on Wall Street has the stock trading up as a I write, about $1.2 billion in capitalization. Given that the option of not closing the deal might have caused the stock to trade lower, the difference between the downside risk and the upside stock move probably equals or exceeds the $1.8 billion dollars. So I like the deal very much.

To verify my track record, including bad calls, read Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

A story in last night's MarketWatch reports that the short-term bond rally Monday put the Fed to the test. The piece discusses how investors, in their flight to the relative safety of government bonds, have been pushing down short term bond yields, and in turn saving the government money. On the other end of the spectrum, corporate bonds are having to issue higher yield paper to get anybody interested in them, as they are paying investors more for the perceived risk.

There are, however, investors who manage to find safety in a better place. To me, the smart investors are not putting their money away in T-Bills, but are running to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) stock. Since I touted BRK in Chasing Value: Berkshire Hathaway -- the time is now on June 11, 2007, the stock is up 10% from $3,612 to yesterday's closing price of $3,962. While T-Bills are safe, they are static and offer no upside potential. I realize that the whole purpose of 'safety' is to avoid downside risk, but there is a such thing as overdoing it and you do not need to hide your head in the sand. In fact, you can also diversify your safe havens and put your money in both blue chip stocks and bonds.

In the mean time, Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha and senior manager of Berkshire Hathaway, has $40 billion dollars in cash to play with in his very conservative sandbox, and invest in a multitude of opportunities. The following metrics for BRK stock are for June 11 and today:

This is a follow up to last week's story Volatile Markets: Anadarko Petroleum (APC) has valuable fuel reserves. I was looking at the latest Standard & Poors report about Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) and as usual find there are many things in the investment world that are quite perplexing. S&P gives the stock a 3 star rating (out of five) which by their methodology is a "hold". At the time of the report, last Friday August 17, 2007, a day after my story, APC was selling for $48.55. The report includes a 12 month target price by their own estimation of $58.00 per share.

This troubles me and maybe someone reading this post can explain it, or at least rationalize this to the rest of us. If S&P believes their own analysis then they are figuring this stock will be worth about 20% more next year (actually 19.46%) and rate it a hold. So that begs the question, why isn't a 20% return worthy of a buy rating. Obviously they disassociate their price target from their over all analysis, but I can't help but feel that this is bizarre. I would gladly take a 20% return on investment, wouldn't you?

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well, including any of my bad calls.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Welcome to our first major redesign of BloggingStocks. We're relaunching the site today with a clean, sophisticated design and some new ways to highlight the best posts our team of world class investment bloggers has to offer.

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