The first quarter of 2010 is closed and the results are in. My picks surpassed the primary indices by a large margin. The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010 , was the culmination of a process presented to our readers and finally narrowed down to the select group using final prices from Monday, December 28, 2009.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns

Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Apr 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Many retail investors have been shrieking as General Electric (GE) hovers around ten year lows and has gone nowhere all year while almost everything else has appreciated. GE is on hot lists and not lists for 2010.

It is one of my holdover picks from 2009 and if it does not improve in the next few days will be my only loser -- for the other, a winner, see: Chasing Value: 2010 -- #3 EZCORP.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 -- #6 General Electric

Chasing Value: 2010 -- #6 General Electric originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Dec 2009 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical surging ahead!

Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical surging ahead! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 24 Apr 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The index for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed Friday at 1,099.23 , down 14.12%.

Each of my five picks is beating the market and three of the five are actually up despite crushing news in the financial sector, unemployment and housing. Congress did pass a Wall Street backstop/bailout bill that President Bush has signed, but only after adding another 450 pages and $130 billion to the amount. Although the five stocks have averaged a 0.75% loss, as intended, they easily beat the S&P by 13.37%.

Here are the five stocks that I still think are worth considering. For my original rationale see the linked story above.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It closed Friday at $66.16 -- up 2.75%. JNJ was featured in Barron's this month as the most respected from the top 100 companies in the world.

Continue reading Serious Money: Stable stocks beating S&P 500 - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA, XEL

Serious Money: Stable stocks beating S&P 500 - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA, XEL originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It was only yesterday that I wrote about Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), noting the favorable metrics and that I put it on my watch list. And this morning I find that Gold & platinum prices soared to new highs, with gold futures setting a new record of $952.40 an ounce.

It seems investors the world over are rediscovering the precious metal after years of neglect. How could you expect anything else with social unrest, war and recession fears on the front pages of every newspaper, with China and India growing rapidly, placing high demand on all commodities, and with a head-in-the-sand administration just now lifting itself up to take a gander at the last few months of its dubious leadership.

Despite recession fears, there is also the serious possibility of dramatic inflation in the next few years based on deficit spending, the ever expanding federal government and lack of concern for the value (buying power) of the currency. It's pitiful. Gold has been an historic hedge against inflation, so why should now be any different?This has ignited one of my 2008 picks Chasing Value: Anglo American (AAUK) is down...but!, which has moved up sharply in the last week.

I do not know where the ceiling is on gold prices, but it does not seem historically high, and I still think AAUK and FCX belong on everyone's watch list.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.

Serious Money: Gold & platinum hit new highs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading An 11th stock under $10: Skyworks Solutions

An 11th stock under $10: Skyworks Solutions originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Nov 2007 17:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• Midas Funds portfolio manager Thomas Winmill
• Timothy Sykes, author of An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund
• AOL Money Coach Hilary Kramer
  

StockWatch: Between the Bells with Ken Kam originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Oct 2007 09:37:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage

Schlumberger Limited (SLB): A stumble or a fall? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 22 Oct 2007 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

But what about oil?
But what about the dollar?
Is it enough?
Is it too much because of inflation?
Are they behind the curve?
Is it wrong that hedge funds get bailed out?

I have no objections to any boilerplate questions about the Fed and its rate cuts. They make sense. I do, however, occasionally want to suspend suspicion and cynicism and even, yes, skepticism, for the moment after something as monumental as yesterday's half-point cut.

I say that because sometimes my job conflicts with the need to be the skeptical reporter. That's because there's an overriding need on this site and in what I do for a living, which is try to make people money.

People want to know how the market will react, they want to know if it is time to buy, or too late to buy, or okay to buy, or good to sell. Those questions are obfuscators. They are theoretical. They get in the way of making money, and if answered incorrectly, they block the chance for making money.

Of course all of those issues are concerns, chiefly oil. It's not "good" that oil is going higher, even though to anyone with a car, it is obvious that it hasn't filtered through. I paid $2.60 yesterday, a dollar lower than I would think I would have had to pay given the price of crude. Weak dollar, possible inflation flare-up -- all bad.

But the simple answer is that things were not right going into the meeting. Big things. You shouldn't have T-bills so high when the 10-year is so low. That's 105 degrees on the thermometer. Those who fought 50 basis points, thinking it is too much, that it means panic, are the same people who would deny children antibiotics lest they scare the parents! It's all nonsense. Retail, autos and banks are real economy sectors, and everyone knew they were hurting.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The cut has changed the market

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The cut has changed the market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Sep 2007 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For about 16 months I have been writing about business news, the over-all market, pet peeves and some stocks I like. At times I have responded to inquiries in the comments section or follow-up posts. Sometimes I have responded directly to some of our regular readers. Many of our readers are quite-well versed in the investment world and the stock market in particular; and I have learned some things from them too. On many occasions something a reader has commented on has stimulated another story, and I have done several sagas during my tenure.

BloggingStocks has improved every month and when I look at the company I am keeping lately I am flattered to be among them. Our editors have been extremely encouraging and supportive. One of the best features about this site that I think puts us head and shoulders above others is the almost instant feedback afforded by the comments section and the dialog that ensues. This is not possible in magazines or sites trying to compete online with large business journals.

Continue reading Calling all stock pickers - what stocks do you like now?

Calling all stock pickers - what stocks do you like now? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Sep 2007 22:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Volatile Markets: Checking our stock picks - Week 2

Volatile Markets: Checking our stock picks - Week 2 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 31 Aug 2007 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) has been a big disappointment to me this year and to long-term shareholders it has been worse.

The brutal housing market, slowing construction, tapped-out consumers, tightening credit markets, not to mention rampant company mismanagement, have all played their part. Then you have the competition from Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), so maybe I was just early and there is a lot of opportunity ahead. I tend to think so, but this story is about the sale of Home Depot's Supply Unit:

The original deal was for private equity firms Bain Capital Partners, Carlyle Group and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice to purchase price HD Supply for $10.3 billion, now reduced to $8.5 billion. This is $1.8 billion less, but that is not the end of the story. Home Depot will be receiving 17.476% less money but is selling 12.5% less of the company so the real difference is a 4.976% reduction in the price. This is not such a bad deal since it now shares in the upside of the new entity's future. Some might argue a path to an upside that will be paved by a better management group.

Although I am sure I am in the minority on this issue, I think The Home Depot negotiated a good deal given the circumstances. It is better for all concerned. The banks have less exposure, the private equity buyers have less risk and a lower purchase price and HD gets to close the deal with some future upside. This may actually work out better than the original deal.

Does anyone believe that the new owners will not outpace HD's return on equity or invested capital? I would bet that remaining 12.5% interest in HD Supply doubles in value faster than Home Depot's stock value. Interestingly, while the words I read here and there make this deal out as a disappointment the action on Wall Street has the stock trading up as a I write, about $1.2 billion in capitalization. Given that the option of not closing the deal might have caused the stock to trade lower, the difference between the downside risk and the upside stock move probably equals or exceeds the $1.8 billion dollars. So I like the deal very much.

To verify my track record, including bad calls, read Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Serious Money: Home Depot (HD) deal is fine by me originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Aug 2007 15:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A story in last night's MarketWatch reports that the short-term bond rally Monday put the Fed to the test. The piece discusses how investors, in their flight to the relative safety of government bonds, have been pushing down short term bond yields, and in turn saving the government money. On the other end of the spectrum, corporate bonds are having to issue higher yield paper to get anybody interested in them, as they are paying investors more for the perceived risk.

There are, however, investors who manage to find safety in a better place. To me, the smart investors are not putting their money away in T-Bills, but are running to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) stock. Since I touted BRK in Chasing Value: Berkshire Hathaway -- the time is now on June 11, 2007, the stock is up 10% from $3,612 to yesterday's closing price of $3,962. While T-Bills are safe, they are static and offer no upside potential. I realize that the whole purpose of 'safety' is to avoid downside risk, but there is a such thing as overdoing it and you do not need to hide your head in the sand. In fact, you can also diversify your safe havens and put your money in both blue chip stocks and bonds.

In the mean time, Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha and senior manager of Berkshire Hathaway, has $40 billion dollars in cash to play with in his very conservative sandbox, and invest in a multitude of opportunities. The following metrics for BRK stock are for June 11 and today:

Continue reading Serious Money: Safe havens -- T-Bills or Warren Buffett?

Serious Money: Safe havens -- T-Bills or Warren Buffett? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 21 Aug 2007 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is a follow up to last week's story Volatile Markets: Anadarko Petroleum (APC) has valuable fuel reserves. I was looking at the latest Standard & Poors report about Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) and as usual find there are many things in the investment world that are quite perplexing. S&P gives the stock a 3 star rating (out of five) which by their methodology is a "hold". At the time of the report, last Friday August 17, 2007, a day after my story, APC was selling for $48.55. The report includes a 12 month target price by their own estimation of $58.00 per share.

This troubles me and maybe someone reading this post can explain it, or at least rationalize this to the rest of us. If S&P believes their own analysis then they are figuring this stock will be worth about 20% more next year (actually 19.46%) and rate it a hold. So that begs the question, why isn't a 20% return worthy of a buy rating. Obviously they disassociate their price target from their over all analysis, but I can't help but feel that this is bizarre. I would gladly take a 20% return on investment, wouldn't you?

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well, including any of my bad calls.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Serious Money: S&P rates Anadarko (APC) a 'hold' with a 20% return? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 20 Aug 2007 18:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Welcome to our first major redesign of BloggingStocks. We're relaunching the site today with a clean, sophisticated design and some new ways to highlight the best posts our team of world class investment bloggers has to offer.

Looking for information about a specific company? Use our new horizontal navigation bar to see posts about one of the 350 or so stocks we cover. You can also click there to see the latest stock picks, opinions on business news of the day, financial analysis or country-by-country research.

With this new design we also make it easier for you to check out what we consider the best crop of posts each day. On the left side of the page we're highlighting topics in the news today and the best of our in-depth features.

Most important, let us know what you think of the new design by leaving your comments. We are eager for feedback.

The latest, greatest BloggingStocks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Jul 2007 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Even as the housing boom fades, there's an argument to be made that people will get more interested in fixing up the house they have now that they are less obsessed with flipping condos in Florida.

Of course, that may not apply to the homeowners who are having trouble making payments on their hiked-up adjustable rate mortgages. But since the rich only get richer these days, it stands to reason that there would be more people willing and able to spend thousands on the sort of home appliance you could just as easily pay a few hundred for at Sears.

That makes investing in the companies that make high-tech home gadgets (see AOL slide show of some of the latest gear) an interesting proposition. If the housing market really tanks (it hasn't yet, I'd argue), these stocks would be somewhat insulated since none of them are direct plays on real estate. But if the housing market shakes its current limp and picks up steam, companies that make expensive gear for the digital home could do quite well. Meantime, some of these stocks are much cheaper than they were a short while ago.

Continue reading High-tech home gadgets: As housing fades, could these stocks shine?

High-tech home gadgets: As housing fades, could these stocks shine? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 20 Jun 2007 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Stock pickers: Happy days are here again originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 31 May 2007 15:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The ninth name in my series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS). Dick's is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and was actually established in 1948. The original concept was revamped and expanded during the past four years, and the company is on a high-growth trajectory. Dick's will be the most dominating purveyor of sporting goods and apparel in the United States.

Dick's stock closed at $53.40 on Friday and has a market capitalization of $2.8 billion. Dick's currently operates 294 stores, most in the eastern United States. The estimated revenue base for the fiscal year ending January 2008 is $3.8 billion, and for earnings per share I am estimating at $2.40. My January 2009 revenue and earnings per share estimates call for $4.5 billion and $2.95.

Dick's is taking advantage of a very fractured market. The preponderance of sporting goods sales occur in the big box retailers like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) or Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). It's simply a "small department" for these huge general retailers. The other big competitors have been mom-and-pop stores and a few other larger concepts that have struggled mightily. Dick's is both the growth engine and the consolidator in the sporting goods space. The company has room to grow to 1,100-1,200 stores over the next decade. In 2005, Dick's acquired popular Midwestern retailer Galyan's and with it, the terrific locations.

Sporting goods that Dick's offers range from the usual baseball, football, basketball, and hockey equipment and apparel to the eclectic tastes in golf, fishing, hunting, and more. Dick's is attuned to the electronic world and offers the best line of navigational equipment for boaters and fishermen. What Dick's offers to the sportsman is total selection and information by extremely well-trained salespeople.

Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Dick's Sporting Goods

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Dick's Sporting Goods originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 19 May 2007 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I have written up eight companies that have a chance to be among the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years and I thought it might be time for some discussion. You, the readers have sent in quite a bit of responses to the first six names. Most of your responses have been very positive and I certainly appreciate it. But many of you have been raising questions that I believe need a general response.

Let's put a few ideas and myths to rest once and for all.

The top 25 for the NEXT 25 years are bound to be smaller capitalization companies. By definition, they have to be. I recommend a number of companies on my website that are of a larger capitalization, but to make the list, the law of large numbers is against the larger cap names. If a $20 billion market cap names five folds over the next 10 years, that's a great return and no one should be unhappy. But if a $500 million market cap name goes to $20 billion in value, that's a 40 times return. So, the names will be of a smaller cap nature.

With high-growth companies early in their development, don't get hung up on lack of dividends. High growth companies do not pay dividends, nor should they. You want every penny of after-tax earnings to be plowed back into the business. Mature companies tend to pay cash dividends because their growth rates have slowed, the business lines are well-funded, and the excess cash is returned to shareholders. The downfall is that the stocks will not grow as fast in value as a high-growth company that is executing well. The big joke among portfolio managers when Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) declared its one time $3 dividend and initiated a quarterly dividend was that the party was over! When is the funeral? Microsoft was signaling that the high-growth, plow the earnings back into the business era was over. The stock traded sideways for nearly three years as Microsoft tried to get its footing back.

Continue reading The Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Discussion

The Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Discussion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 19 May 2007 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week I was reviewing investment banks for potential inclusion in one of our portfolios. I looked at numerous factors. Initially, what got me thinking about this sector was opportunity for growth versus good value of prices for the shares. At the time I concluded that Bear Stearns Cos (NYSE: BSC) was the best value with the greatest upside. It was hovering in the $153 to $156 range when I put in a limit order at $148 per share, good-till-canceled (GTC). After enough headlines about sub-prime lenders and financial sector woes that cast a giant shadow on most financial stocks, BSC reached my limit.

Last week the quality companies went down with the junk which should not happen, but it often does. Historically, this has presented me with wonderful opportunities to make a good buy and indeed I got scooped up at our $148 figure. Yesterday BSC closed at $153.83.

This morning, Brent Archer posted about Goldman Sachs, reaffirming one of Cramer's nine picks of the year. Allan Halprin also called our attention to The Savviest Stock Picker in America -- Ken Heebner of CGM Capital -- a must read. Heebner favors most of the investment banks right now. I just favor BSC. Here are the tantalizing figures for your consideration:

Continue reading Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing

Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 17 Apr 2007 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.