Since advising readers to stay away from Big 5 Sporting Goods (NASDAQ: BGFV) about two weeks ago, the stock is down about 10%. After the bell today, the company is expected to report earnings. In my opinion, the stock is not a buy into earnings.
I expect Big 5 to earn 21-25 cents per share in EPS for the quarter, disappointing or coming in-line with the street., However, I think the company's guidance is going to scare investors. The continued crunch on the consumer in California (due to foreclosures) will probably remain an issue for the company, considering 54% of Big 5 stores are located in the state. I also believe that the comps for the previous quarter are going to force the company to remain very conservative in their comp growth guidance figures -- either reiterating the already-conservative figures or perhaps making further cuts.
All in all, while Big 5's stock is beginning to look very cheap at these levels, I don't think now is the time to buy because I don't expect sentiment to improve from here -- in fact, I think it could become even worse after a mediocre report today.
I expect Big 5 to earn 21-25 cents per share in EPS for the quarter, disappointing or coming in-line with the street., However, I think the company's guidance is going to scare investors. The continued crunch on the consumer in California (due to foreclosures) will probably remain an issue for the company, considering 54% of Big 5 stores are located in the state. I also believe that the comps for the previous quarter are going to force the company to remain very conservative in their comp growth guidance figures -- either reiterating the already-conservative figures or perhaps making further cuts.
All in all, while Big 5's stock is beginning to look very cheap at these levels, I don't think now is the time to buy because I don't expect sentiment to improve from here -- in fact, I think it could become even worse after a mediocre report today.
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