I'm closing my recommended Buy position with Supervalu (NYSE: SVU), first recommended on April 22, 2009 at a price of $14.98.

Grocer/food distributor Supervalu's shares have drifted lower over the past six months, and traded below its 50-day moving average for more than a month twice -- a bearish sign.

Shares of American Express (NYSE: AXP) bottomed in early March at just over $10 per share.

Instead of covering, I hedged my bet by keeping the American Express short open. I suppose that is the entire point of absolute return investing, but boy, was I wrong in doing that.

AXP shot up like a rocket over the last three months and now trades above $23 per share. It has been a big gainer this year, returning 25% through the end of the second quarter.

Investors continued to sell Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) during the second quarter, and shares bottomed at $2 per share.

Looking forward, I recently added Eastman Kodak to my Penny Stock Winners model portfolio as a buy recommendation.

In my opinion, the carnage at Eastman Kodak has been complete and the upside benefit of the digtal revolution is worth the speculation. The company may never fully recover from the last few years, but a small improvement in operations can result in big gains in the stock.

I would be a buyer of Eastman Kodak at these prices.

Next: Stock to Avoid #10

Don't be deceived by the short-term performance of United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). The weakness of the dollar in the second quarter helped push shares of this multinational manufacturer higher. But these gains merely allowed the company to recover big losses sustained during the first quarter of the year.

The double whammy here for investors is exposure to the aerospace industry. As described previously, the weakness in the airline industry will negatively impact revenue for those companies providing equipment to the space. In addition, reductions in defense spending will also negatively impact UTX.

We are in the early stages of seeing change in how this company operates in the current environment. There is no catalyst for this stock to go higher, and shares are vulnerable to the extent the dollar strengthens. I would sell UTX.

Next: Stock to Avoid #9

To get an idea of how poorly United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA) has performed, may I suggest viewing this little nugget.

If United is breaking guitars as accused, I would fly another airline. As an avid guitar player myself, such carelessness is unacceptable. The airline industry is struggling, and poor customer service does not help. The above video is now going viral on the Internet - what a PR disaster for United.

Similar to Dupont, I selected Eastman Chemical (NYSE: EMN) as a stock to avoid due to rising input prices and low margins. It is a simple formula that cannot be broken: If a company cannot pass along higher costs, it will make less.

The market has yet to grasp that concept with respect to EMN. The stock has more than doubled since bottoming in March and has skyrocketed during the second quarter. This is in stock contrast to the poor performance at Dupont.

For the first two months of the second quarter Boeing (NYSE: BA) was on fire. BA gained significantly during that time, but then the company announced a delay in their much-awaited DreamShip -- a delay that opened the door for the airlines to cancel orders. Speculation based on that scenario slapped the stock back down to the flat line for the second quarter.

Unfortunately, the news does not get better for Boeing. There is too much capacity in the airline space, and new planes are not needed.

I would be a seller of Boeing today.

Next: Stock to Avoid #6

Given the economic crisis and global recession, I hypothesized that multinationals may suffer as a result of a strong dollar. The idea being that investors would flock to the dollar in search of safety. Over the last quarter though, the reverse has been true.

The dollar weakened significantly as investors bet against the greenback due to inflationary spending in the U.S. As a result, the multinationals have been big winners in the last quarter.

3M (NYSE: MMM) though was only up slightly in the second quarter as the company's products failed to capture the imagination of buyers across the globe. When the dollar strengthens in the latter half of 2009, look for MMM to stumble.

Next: Stock to Avoid #4

Another stock leveraged to the oil market is Dupont (NYSE: DD). Because many of the company's products are derived from crude oil, rising oil prices negatively impact profit margins. The only recourse, then, is to raise the price for consumers. But doing so in this environment is unlikely given the weakness in the economy.

As a result, the dynamics of the market are such that profits for DD will be lower in the near term.

That puts the company in a bit of a Catch-22.

I take my absolute return approach to a deeper level by periodically buying and selling positions during the year. In late February, I suggested that investors cover the short position of Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) at $6.35 per share.

In my last update of the stocks on this list, I suggested that I would still be a seller of Delta. Shares of Delta did indeed lose value over the last three months. This move coincided with a blast in oil prices. Airlines are already struggling with a weak economy and excess capacity. Rising jet fuel prices make matters worse.

With such uncertainty, following an absolute return strategy continues to offer investors the biggest bang for their buck. There is no sense in guessing where the market will be down the road.

Instead, buy cheap stocks and sell stocks that are expensive. Then blend the two approaches together in one portfolio and chances are you'll make money.

Even with a huge rally in stocks, the S&P 500 ended the second quarter with a year-to-date gain of 1.78%. That is a vast improvement compared to the 11% loss at the end of the first quarter, but it's a minimal return for taking risk in the stock market.

Investors need to do better -- and they can.

Wednesday, consumer products maker Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL) delivered some bad news to investors when it slashed its current quarter profit outlook rather significantly.

It took the Street completely by surprise, and the shares got hammered to the tune of 27%.

Then yesterday, one of the quintessential companies that relies on consumer spending, Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), announced that it too has lowered its profit guidance for 2009, to a range of $2.25 to $2.75 per share from its previous range of $2.50 to $3 per share.

The company said it expects full-year net revenue yields to fall 6% to 10% on a constant dollar basis compared with previous guidance of a drop of 1% to 5%.

Despite the weak outlook, the shares were up on a day when not much else was rising.

What gives?

We've pinned down the ever-dancing Wall Street Warrior Timothy Sykes for another StockWatch: Between the Bells segment! In this edition, the author of An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund cautions you to revise your strategy for the developing bear market. "It is not the time to be aggressive, it is the time to be conservative," says Tim.

The market is down, and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) is down more than most -- 15% as I write. I think Amazon is still tremendously overvalued. If you give it a forward P/E of 35 to 40, which is way too generous (and more than its rivals), and you double last year's earnings per share to roughly $1.50, you will get a valuation of $52.50 to $60.00 per share; I remind readers that this is going forward.

Please keep in mind that this is what I think an enthusiastic AMZN investor might pay at the top. From my perspective, the stock does not deserve this high of a valuation. A multiple of 30 might be more realistic and still favorable, against earnings of perhaps $1.00 to $1.20. This view puts a value on the stock of $30 to $36. Therefore I think today's opening price of $90.87 is a joke, and it may be time to take the money and run if you own it. Amazon.com may be overvalued by over 100%!

Last night I posted Amazon's (AMZN) earnings not so impressive, and today investors have supported my thoughts. If you want to read evidence of wacky thinking, read the commentary on this post and you will see how distorted people's views can become. Amazon the company is a great place to sell merchandise; Amazon the stock may be something you should consider selling as well.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

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