Stop Trading! posts
FeedPosted Aug 17th 2007 4:15PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Intel (INTC), Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Texas Instruments (TXN), EMC Corp (EMC)
On today's
STOP TRADING! Jim Cramer said the bias has changed and they nailed the Fed call. He noted that investors can start focusing on cheap stocks again now that the sky isn't going to fall and now that the Fed isn't letting us think they are asleep. He was positive on
Schlumberger (NYSE:
SLB) reaching $95 again. But he really honed in on tech as his picks:
Texas Instruments (NYSE:
TXN) is his play for the most aggressive share buyback plan in tech, and Cramer still digs
Google (NASDAQ:
GOOG),
Intel (NASDAQ:
INTC), and
Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:
CSCO). Oddly enough even though he was positive on
EMC Corp. (NYSE:
EMC), he said he is surprised that it has been been a dud since it still owns most of
VMware (NYSE:
VMW) after the IPO.
We aren't surprised at all on EMC, even if we think the valuations of VMware are reaching into the stratosphere. The super-low float has a lot to do with this strong performance and there just aren't enough shares for fund managers to have very much of on their books since EMC is hoarding 87% of the stock. We've seen this play book before on widely telegraphed partial spin-offs like this and VMware is really more of a tracking stock right now than they would have you believe. We just covered how
Citrix Systems (NASDAQ:
CTXS) paid
$500 million for a competitor by the name of XenSource.
Intel (NASDAQ:
INTC) has been invested heavily into virtualization competitors as well, so we expectthe news flow to stay steady in the sector. That is a tiny summary of why EMC is not doing as well as some of the head scratchers were hoping for.
Our full newsletter this week (
EMC now unemargoed) was on this exact subject.
Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., publisher of 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter and does not own securities in the companies he covers.Posted Aug 16th 2007 3:30PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Television, Market Matters, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), , Housing
Jim Cramer came on CNBC's
Stop Trading! segment today and said that Larry Kudlow's call to cut rates may be listened to because his call to merely cut the discount rate would be an effective measure the Fed could get away with. Cramer even went as far as to call Kudlow the best in the world as far as knowing the Fed. If you are not that familiar with Larry Kudlow, he's the one who, up until the last couple weeks or so, has been the perpetual bull who spouted on about the so-called "Goldilocks" economy.
Countrywide Financial (NYSE:
CFC) has funding to 2008 and he'd no longer be short. He'd rather own call options than he would take the risk owning the stock. If I told you yesterday regardless of what Cramer says that Countrywide was tapping an entire $11 billion line of credit, would you have guessed UP or DOWN on the stock? This is horrible news that the company had to tap it, but the good news is that the company WAS ABLE to tap it.
On
Annaly Mortgage (NYSE:
NLY), Cramer said it is the only mortgage player that doesn't take credit risk. Cramer said shorting this one is an idiot call, even if this can fall when they throw out the baby with the bath water. This is still in the middle of its 52-week trading range and way down from highs of 2003 to early 2006.
How many times can one say "yeah" or "boo" on a call? It seems to me that this is getting to the point where the rumor mill and raw fear can move the market well beyond what the actual numbers could. These financials are up huge, down huge, up huge and down huge again. It's almost like watching "the wave" at a football game where everyone is drunk. The wave starts, then sometimes it stays going and sometimes it falls apart. That is how this feels right now. If we are going to hit a market crash, watch that
VIX INDEX over 30 for the first time since 2003 we discussed yesterday.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:
JPM) and
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:
BAC) are up big today, so what gives?
Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St., publisher of Special Situation Investing Newsletter. He does not own securities in the companies he covers.Posted Aug 6th 2007 4:15PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Launches, Stocks to Buy, Housing
On today's
STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer said that
Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (NYSE:
TMA) is one of the companies in mortgage land that is a bad short that will hurt the traders betting against it. Cramer thinks that many of these mortgage companies are really at risk, but Thornburg isn't one of them.
We'll see how these mortgage plays pan out. Obviously there are going to be more failures. But there will also be winners, at least history dictates that there always are. Thornburg shares are down under $24 and its trading range this year is $22.39 to $28.40. It is also still profitable. Cramer just created his
"Mortgage Market Madness Index" on Friday, and this was one of the components. With the FOMC meeting tomorrow, financials are going to be the wildcard the first half of this week.
Posted Aug 3rd 2007 3:40PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad News, Television, Private Equity, , Housing
On today's
Stop Trading! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer said
Bear Stearns (NYSE:
BSC) should be keeping its mouth shut until it is ready to start buying shares. The fact that headlines will be interpreted poorly means that it shouldn't speak until it's behind. Cramer started
screaming louder than he's ever been on recent TV that Bernanke and Poole and the Fed is asleep and they are not aware of how bad this situation is out there. He said the Fed should be lowering the rate at the discount window. This is a different kind of market. Of the 14 million mortgages in the last three years, almost seven million were in teaser or ARM or non-traditional mortgages. All of those homes are potentially at risk in his mindset.
It looked to me like CNBC's Erin Burnett looked a little taken aback by this today, and it's hard to blame her. We just needed Vince McMahon and a Smackdown to rival today. This meltdown in subprime still has a long ways to go before all the dust settles. This has already toppled some firms and we won't know where the real bottom is until after the fact. The ugliness isn't just about financial and private equity no longer able to borrow and deal...it's much worse than that. The impact of this looks like it is going to end up being far worse than the derivative implosions in the bond market from 1994 to 1996. The difference is that Joe Q. Public isn't seeing their treasury notes lose as much.
Posted Aug 1st 2007 3:45PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Citigroup Inc. (C), MasterCard Inc'A' (MA),
On today's
STOP TRADING! on CNBC, Jim Cramer maintained that you have to sell financial into strength. He said that even
Citigroup (NYSE:
C) could get pulled down by the malaise even though at most it has 5% of its business tied to such issues. It isn't that he hates all financials, it's that he sees the panic selling in anything tied to mortgages at all. Names like
Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE:
BZH) has big impairments, and it even has an investigation.
Thornburg (NYSE:
TMA) is another one he'd still sell because even if it isn't tied into the malaise it could still fall. On
MasterCard (NYSE:
MA), Cramer said that down $18 feels like an over-reaction.
With the past ten days' worth of continued financial stock selling, you could say that Cramer may be calling the bottom. But it is very hard to fight the tape and it will be hard calling any exact bottom on almost any of these financial stocks. I saw today on CNBC where Charlie Gasparino even noted that
Bear Stearns (NYSE:
BSC) is getting to a level that it could in theory be thought of as a buyout candidate, but right now until the dust settles it is unlikely that any such offer would be made by anyone. The lawsuits haven't even really started and the waves of downward earnings estimates haven't come from Wall Street itself. Until that happens, this tape is just too hard to fight regardless of fairly recent and longer-term opinions.
Posted Jul 30th 2007 4:25PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports, Boeing Co (BA), Honeywell Intl (HON)
On today's
STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer was at least happier today than last week since the market stabilized. Cramer said he'd like and would buy
Honeywell International (NYSE:
HON) as one that belongs in the same league as
Boeing (NYSE:
BA). He likes that it blew out numbers last week and likes it even more because it is buying more stock than anyone else. Cramer said he would prefer to see more dividend hikes as long-term signals of conviction.
Honeywell is one of the manufacturing conglomerates with diversified operations in many areas of the economy that is within 4% of its 52-week highs and trades at premium multiples to other DJIA components. On top of its ability or desire to repurchase shares, it still also has many opportunities to prune down its portfolio and focus on core operations. It's up to the company as to what its strategy will be going forward, particularly as the conglomerate has so many areas it operates in. It has recovered from some of its old woes and we'll have to see if it can hold that premium P/E multiple compared to peers.
Posted Jul 17th 2007 3:50PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports, Motorola (MOT), Applied Materials (AMAT)
On today's
STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer made a call for a pairs trade on chemical and technology stocks: Cramer said that traders can ring the register in chemical stocks and they can throw the money into tech stocks now that these big ones have been acquired. He thinks the trade for next few days is into technology. He thinks that both
Applied Materials (NASDAQ:
AMAT) and
KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:
KLAC) have a lot of room still to run. He noted how
Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:
NVLS) wasn't that great and didn't even make the lowered guidance and is still trading up. He also noted how
Motorola Inc. (NYSE :
MOT) is basically up after its warning.
Anyhow, you get the idea. Fighting the tape is the worst idea out there as the easiest way to lose money, and the tape has been showing major inflows of cash into these stocks. Even on bad news, traders are buying stock. Imagine what happens on good news. The old tech titans have been doing very well, despite Cramer a few weeks ago naming the
"New Four Horsemen of Tech" in one of his features.
Posted Jul 13th 2007 5:10PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rumors, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), USG Corp (USG), Housing
On today's
STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer addressed the homebuilders all being up based on the very unconfirmed rumors that Warren Buffett's
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:
BRK.A) was taking a stake in homebuilder
Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:
HOV). Cramer said it would more likely be
Pulte Homes (NYSE:
PHM) because Hovnanian is more regional and he can go in bigger with Pulte. This shows that it is too hard to short in this market. Cramer said Buffett has always liked this group.Cramer also noted
USG Corp. (NYSE:
USG) as one of the core housing-related plays that Buffett owns.
What is interesting is that Buffett and Hovnanian would
probably not make as much sense as him looking at either a component maker that sells to all homebuilders or as much as one of the larger housing stocks. It has too much exposure to Southern California and the entire hurricane band of Florida. If you don't believe it
look at its mapping demo. Buffett is still wanting to make "The Whale of Deal" and Hovnanian has a mere $1.15 billion market cap. Back on May 7 we gave a list of
potential US targets that could make sense in the "Whale" category for Buffett.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.Posted May 31st 2007 5:30PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Apple Inc (AAPL), Ciena Corp (CIEN), Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)
Jim Cramer had a slightly different rendition today to his Wild Bull market sector picks on today's
Stop Trading! segment on CNBC. He noted that the retail investor is starting to return to the market. If retails buys tech like
Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ:
CIEN) and
Apple, Inc.(NASDAQ :
AAPL) then they are buying needles in the haystack because they are in technology. But other sectors, such as machinery, mining, minerals and aerospace are all their own haystacks. You can see what he said the other night here with his top picks in each group, of those wild bull market picks for the
first four sectors and then the
other two sectors that retail should be buying. He also noted that
Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE:
RL) is firing on all cylinders and it is starting to take up more and more retail space and taking gross margin power away from retailers. Cramer said Ralph Lauren's stock is heading for $120.
Those major sectors are still hard to argue against, particularly since they have been working. Ralph Lauren has been doing quite well if you include its new forays into the likes of JC Penney and others, but investors may want to caution that the retail designer is now worth $10 billion in market cap. It also seems like whenever there's a merchandise sale at a given department stores, there's a flood of Polo merchandise for sale, particularly in the 'Custom Fit" lines that are cut too small for a huge portion of Americans (no pun intended).
Posted May 8th 2007 5:00PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
On today's
STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer said he loves
Discovery Holdings (NASDAQ:
DISCA) and thinks it should go private. He was very positive on this name before on one of his MAD MONEY episodes
on April 23, 2007.
The problem is that the company is not at a price any "fiscally responsible buyer" would be interested in. It loses money and has negative cash flows at this point, even if that has been on non-recurring items.
The good news is that it is expected to make money this year and grow earnings next year. But it is essentially still on the cusp. The main reason for losses was because of one quarter last year, but the net earnings from operations probably price this out. A buyer at this point would mainly be a vanity buyer or a buyer who thinks he/she can run it much leaner and meaner than current management. It would also be a large gamble considering that the company is already worth more than $6 billion in market cap.
Posted Jan 17th 2007 3:53PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Analyst Reports, Television, Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), MasterCard Inc'A' (MA)
On today's
STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer talked financials.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC) are Cramer's two bank buys in America. Cramer said that Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) could do Dilutive acquisitions; but Dimon at JPM is firing on all cylinders. Cramer says you can sell BAC and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C). Citigroup's Prince was noted as
one of our 10 CEO's that need to leave their position.
On Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ:NTRS), being down 5%, Cramer thinks any time this has been at a discount you should have been buying. He thinks it is very well run and you need to buy it. On MasterCard Inc. (NYSE:MA), Cramer thinks it will have another earnings surprise and it may murder the shorts.
Cramer said that Lennar Corp.'s (NYSE:LEN) guidance today (actually goals) is way too bullish for him to believe.
Cramer then said he has a big call tonight on
MAD MONEY.As noted in an
earlier post, Cramer has changed his stance on tech as a group. Yes there are selective winners to him, but the calendar is going to work against the group as a whole.
Posted Dec 20th 2006 3:35PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports
On today's STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Cramer has the Top 3 Oil Picks for 2007 that CNBC believes you haven't thought of yet:
1) Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN) -- will be bought in Europe if stock stays low.
2) Ultra Petroleum Corp. (AMEX: UPL)
3) Core Laboratories N.V. (NYSE: CLB)
He also said subprime Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (NASDAQ: LEND) is OK, because it understands risk. It was hurt mostly by other brokerage firms that came into the game and crushed margins. Cramer thinks we're nowhere near the red-line on credit yet and he isn't seeing a spike in credit losses.
Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.