"You must own some gold in this economic environment," emphasizes natural resources authority Larry Edelson who sees the recent setback in gold prices as "an ideal time to buy."
"Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom. It is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.
"And when there are financial crises, as we now have with the plunging dollar and the meltdown in the mortgage markets in the U.S. - gold gets an extra boost. Savvy investors flock to the safety of the precious metal, pushing its price even higher.
"In addition, there's more to the bull market in gold than just inflation and financial problems in the United States. Three billion new consumers in Asia are buying gold hand over fist! Previously in China, investors were not allowed to own gold. Now they can, and they are buying up gold like crazy.
"The current environment is one of the most challenging I have seen in the twenty years I have been following the market," says Nate Pile, who has added some ETF hedges to his Nate's Notes portfolio.
"I am also introducing two ETFs this month that can be thought of as 'indirect hedges.' Rather than being a 'short' fund, we are choosing funds that track commodity prices, which in turn, will provide a hedge against any market declines that may result from investor concern about rising inflation.
"In addition, these two new ETFs is may appreciate in value even if the market does rally from here. I actually think there is a very good chance we will make money on these 'commodity ETFs' regardless of what the stock market does next. Anyhow, without further ado, I present to you the following two ETFs:
"The PowerShares Deutsche Bank Commodity Index Tracking Fund (ASE: DBC) is designed to reflect the performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index, an index that tracks six important commodities (current index weightings approximated in parentheses): light crude (33%), heating oil (19%), wheat (14%), corn (12%), aluminum (12%), and gold (10%).
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Fear or war or nuclear conflagration is not the main reason for owning gold; rather, investors should buy gold to protect against inflation," explains Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing Pro, and the top stock picker in last year's Best Stocks report, with her selection of DryShips.
"This is not advice only for US investors. All central banks face a dilemma: On one hand, they can cut interest rates and print money to deflect subprime and credit crunch dangers while letting inflation rip. On the other, they can insist on discipline and inflation fighting, letting the economy's chips fall where they may.
"My top conservative investment idea for 2008 is StreetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which is an exchange-traded fund. In fact, the amount of gold held by StreetTracks now exceeds the gold reserves of China. It holds 602.37 tonnes of the yellow metal, whereas China only holds 600 tonnes. (A tonne is a metric measure equal to about 3,520 ounces.)
"US investors can also consider iShares Comex Gold (ASE: IAU). Both are ETFs that own physical gold bullion. However, they track different gold market prices.
"GLD tracks the London fixing and Comex ETF tracks the Chicago commodity price. You can buy whichever one is cheaper at the moment you decide on going for the gold."
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Everyone should have some gold, but it is an individual decision as to what best fits one's risk tolerance and personal financial makeup," says resources expert Curtis Hesler, editor of Professional Timing Service.
"Bullion in some form, be it bullion coins or bullion ETF's like StreetTracks Gold ETF (NYSE: GLD), should be fitted into one's portfolio -- for diversification, if no other reason. I would consider this a top speculative idea for 2008.
"However, be mindful that bullion profits, even in the ETF form, are taxed at a higher rate than gold-mining stocks. So, bullion ETF's are perhaps best held in a tax-sheltered account, but that is an individual call."
"Gold's recent move to a new highs clearly reinforces that the metal's six year bull market is alive and well," say leading resources experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.
In The Aden Forecast, the sisters -- who have accurately forecast the bull market since its start in 2001 -- explain why they believe this upmove is part of a mega-trend that will last for many years to come.
"As the dollar falls further, gold will continue to head higher. And the unprecedented trade deficit nearly guarantees that the dollar will continue to slide. Lower U.S. interest rates reinforce this as well, and again that'll be good for gold.
"Meanwhile, U.S. dependence on foreign oil and the record high oil price means the trade deficit is going to stay huge. It'll also contribute to inflation by keeping upward pressure on consumer prices.
"So in a way, it's a vicious circle that goes something like this: high oil = large trade deficits = a weak dollar and high inflation. Spending and money creation = inflation, which all = higher gold.
"The U.S. dollar has fallen to near all-time lows against the world's major currencies, and when the buck drops, gold rises," notes Larry Edelson, editor of The Real Wealth Report. "Our government and our central bankers will always opt for inflation to solve economic problems by printing paper money.
"Gold is also getting a nice boost from global economic growth, especially in Asia. But unfortunately, there are still plenty of global geo-political insecurities around helping to push the yellow metal higher.
"Newcrest is Australia's largest gold mining company, and its profits are surging due to rising metal prices and the ending of the company's forward sales policies.
"When companies sell forward -- or hedge -- their gold in a rising price environment, they lose out because they are selling at a lower price. Companies that don't hedge get the most bang for their gold buck. Newcrest is one of them, which bodes well for the future direction of the company's share price.
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
With gold turning down from its recent highs, some have questioned whether the 6-year bull market in metals may be ending. According to Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, the evidence points to the opposite conclusion. Indeed, they note, "Gold and silver have everything going for them and their rises have a lot further to go."
Here, the resource experts and co-editors of The Aden Forecast explain the six key factors they see that are pointing to higher metals prices.
The first two reasons are spending and money. They explain, "The world is swimming in money and that's the fuel that's been driving money assets and commodity prices up. But the magnitude of what's currently happening has never been seen before in world history."
The Adens points out that the U.S. is the world's largest debtor nation and "the government keeps spending money it doesn't have."
Since the government doesn't want to cut spending or raise taxes to reduce its debt, they note, "It simply produces money to cover its expenses, which is what governments throughout history have always done, and this amount is also huge."
In fact, in just over the past year, they observe, the amount of paper dollars that've been created is equal to half the value of all the gold that's ever been produced worldwide over the past 2,000 years, which is about $2 trillion. And it's not just the U.S. "Other countries are pumping out money like mad too. In Europe, for instance, money has been growing at the fastest rate in 17 years."
In my recent posts, I have been reviewing the most popular sectors for the coming year, according the the newsletter advisors who participated in the Top Picks from 2007 report. In my last post, I highlighted stocks in healthcare, tech, and telecom. Today, I want to review the resource sectors -- energy and metals -- that remain very popular among advisors, despite being out-of-favor in recent trading.
First, let's look at the metals, where gold remains a popular choice. Sy Harding chose ASA Bermuda, a closed-end gold fund, Curtis Hesler selected Yamana, and Martin Weiss opted for Kinross.
Outside of the precious metals, Tom Bishop chose copper play, Taseko Mines, while Neil Macneale selected steel stocks.
Equally as volatile as metals -- and currently out-of-favor -- has been energy. The energy sector has been high on the list of Top Picks for the past 4 years. This year, however, there is a noticeable shift.
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
streetTRACKS Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is the top pick for conservative investors for 2007 from technician Mark Leibovit. The editor of VRTrader explains, "streetTracks Gold Trust is an investment trust whose shares strive to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the trust's expenses.
"The trust holds gold and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of baskets. The gold held by the trust will only be sold on an as-needed basis to pay trust expenses, in the event the trust terminates and liquidates its assets, or as otherwise required by law or regulation.
"The streetTracks Gold Trust is not managed like an active investment vehicle, and it's not registered as an investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Our upside target for gold is unlimited, but let's call it $850 and then $1,000 over the next two years -- which translates in to GLD trading first at $85 and then the $100 level."
To see Mark's favorite speculative idea for 2007, click here.