Subprime mortgage defaults peaked and will slowly begin to slide during the next two years.

But don't get excited -- option ARMs and ALT-A mortgages are now beginning to rise at a very rapid rate. According to analysts I follow, notably Ivy Zelman, the next tsunami will be larger than the one we just went through.

And the banks are not currently valuing these mortgages as if they will default at this rate.

Be sure to read all 7 reasons the stock market isn't going up any time soon.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

The New York Times DealBook recently asked the question "Should banks take back their bonuses?"

The top investment banks will be paying out a record $39 billion in bonuses for 2007, a year in which most posted massive writedowns on bad subprime loans and saw their share prices shrink precipitously.

Making matters worse, traders and investment bankers earned huge bonuses on deals in past year that have now been written down. The deals weren't valued properly in the first place, but who cares! They already got their bonuses.

At the risk of being inflammatory, I have to tell you: This reminds me of Enron, where executives "marked to market" deals based on hypothetical future profits, paid themselves huge bonuses and, in one case, had cashed out and become the largest landowner in Colorado by the time stuff hit the fan.

The problem with the Wall Street bonus system is that it rewards risk over prudence. The compensation philosophy on Wall Street seems to be "Heads I win, tails I still win, as long as I can convince people it was actually a heads at the time I toss the coin. When they find out it was really a tails in a few years, I'll already have spent my bonus on that mansion in the Hamptons, and the shareholders can jolly well deal with it." Or something.

Until someone has the courage to make some changes in the Wall Street bonus structure, we can expect big blow-ups like this from time to time. As economics teaches us, people respond to incentives, and Wall Streeters are incentivized to take big risks with other people's money.

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he offers advice to investors who are just getting started.

Subprime loans have been in the headlines, not in a good way. Lenders have lost billions. Homeowners have lost homes. It's a real big problem. But for the lenders the problems may only be starting.

While subprime loans are defaulting, there are loans that weren't subprime when they were made and have been paying regularly. But that may change due to their structure. These loans were made at interest rates below the current market rate, called teaser rates. These teaser rates were written for a year or two or even longer. Once those teaser rates expire, the loan then adjusts upward to current interest rates for home loans.

When the new rates adjust higher, so do the payments. Some homeowners won't be able to afford the new payment schedule. The actual number of those is unknown until the end of each month, when the payments are due and aren't made. While interest rates are moving downward at the moment, they may not move down far enough to help these borrowers. That means more mortgages may default over the next several months or years as the teaser rates become current. Only time will tell how many that will be. Not even the lenders know how bad this problem is since there's no way to estimate how many borrowers will stop paying.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen is on the wires again, becoming the latest Fed governor to note that the U.S.'s economic slowdown is bigger than she expected, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Last week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn also noted that credit market woes fed by subprime mortgage and related asset defaults tipped the scales toward 'the downside risks to growth.'

Yellen said recent data on retail sales and consumer spending were not that encouraging, Bloomberg News reported.

On the heels of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on "renewed turbulence," many traders and investors across sectors now expect the Fed to cut key short-term interest rates when it meets on December 11, according to one currency trader.

"I won't give you all the technical indicators, but basically almost all of them are pointing to a rate cut by the Fed when it meets [on December 11]," Currency Trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Friday. "The issue now is whether the Fed continues to cut after the December meeting."

Markets rally

Stock rallied early Friday on Bernanke's comments, with the Dow gaining over 80 points to about 13,394 and the Nasdaq gaining about 4 points to 2,674. Meanwhile, the dollar gained slightly, improving to $1.4730 against the euro and rising to 111.07 yen against the Japanese yen.

"Typically, when the Fed indicates it's likely to cut rates that causes the dollar to fall, but in this case, the market is saying 'The Fed is going to help the [U.S.] economy grow faster,' which is bullish for the dollar," Resnick said. Resnick added that he was flat - - or had no currency positions - on Friday.

The New York Times reports that the Dow lost 360 points -- or 2.64% -- back to where it was before Ben Bernanke cut the Federal Funds Rate an unexpectedly large 50 basis points. My message to Bernanke is that cutting rates just to keep the market from falling is not a winning strategy.

The Fed is supposed to keep inflation in check, and it's failing at that job. How so? At $96.37, the price of oil is near an unprecedented $100, and gasoline prices -- which blessedly dropped during the fall -- are poised to rise about 50% to $4.50 a gallon, just as people step up their driving during the holidays. On January 19, 2001, oil was $24 a barrel -- it has since quadrupled. Meanwhile, the cost of heating a home is hitting a record -- $3.05 a gallon for home heating oil in Massachusetts. It may be higher elsewhere.

Then there's the little problem that the Fed has engendered through its rate cuts -- a dollar that's plunging like a knife. Relative to the euro, the dollar has lost 13% from $1.30 at the beginning of January 2007, to its current $1.47. And since January 19, 2001, the dollar has lost 60% of its value! Back then, one euro bought 92 cents. In addition to Brazilian supermodel Gisele Bundchen, China is now seeking to switch from the dollar to the euro. So the dollar drop is feeding on itself.

In case you haven't been paying attention, home sales and mortgage situations are a little touchy in the U.S. right now. Mortgage holders continue to default on their loans, subprime borrowers are no longer able to get loans (at least not with the same favorable terms), financial companies are writing down billions of dollars in losses from backing shoddy mortgages, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) have fired their CEOs and home prices are down in many parts of the country.

In other words, the nightmare surrounding the housing and mortgage market is taking a toll in many areas. But if the U.S. can cut its home inventories (using several methods, I suppose), then that alone may be the key to stabilizing financial systems here in the U.S. and in the rest of the world. At least according to former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan. Still, it's quite a mighty prediction, right?

Greenspan connected the subprime lending situation to international financial systems and said that the way to self-correct this system would to be somehow get rid of 200,000 to 300,000 housing units in active sales inventory in the U.S. at this time. He also warned against trying to keep down "asset bubbles" as he spoke to a business leader's forum from Washington. Greenspan also referred to the global economy, saying it is "doing well."

So, is Greenspan right? Can all the excess homes now in the market as a result of the mortgage overextension and lending crisis be sold? Can this clear the air of economic concerns as the housing and mortgage crises are rolling over into other industries and even nations? He's been right before ... many times.

Countrywide (NYSE:CFC), a U.S. home mortgage lender, is down .92 to $19.18. According to Dow Jones Source; From CFC's Chairman of the Board Angelo R Mozilo sold 139,918 shares at $20.14 for a value of $2,818,368 on 10/8/07 after exercising 139,918 shares for $9.94 for value of $1,390,785 on 10/8/07. CFC November option implied volatility of 68 is above its 26-week average of 59 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

US Airways (NYSE: LCC) is recently up .95 to $31.52. Goldman Sachs upgraded LCC to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $36 from $33. LCC over all option implied volatility of 57 is above its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

The New York Times reports that another European bank hedge fund has been wiped out due to its investment in subprime mortgage backed securities (SMBS). Netherlands' NIBC Holdings reported that it lost at least $188 million on investments in the American mortgage market for subprime loans. It joins Paris' BNP and Düsseldorf, IKB Deutsche Industriebank, and some Australian hedge funds and banks.

With the globalization of financial markets, it's clear that nobody knows which banks, hedge funds, insurance companies, and pension funds own those SMBSs. Nor do they know how much money banks have lent these institutional investors. But if the banks decide they want their money back, and the collateral is worthless, then the institutional investors will either need to sell more liquid holdings -- e.g., stocks -- or they will file for bankruptcy.

In a rather lame move, the Wall Street Journal reports that in an effort to see if they're hiding losses, the SEC is examining the books of U.S. investment banks to see if they're marking down the value of their own subprime portfolios in the same way as they are marking down those of their clients. But what's really needed, as I suggested above, is a view of the global damage -- not just the situation in the U.S.

Home Depot (NYSE: HD) hoped it had sold its HD Supply business to private equity interests for $10.325 billion. Problems in the credit market trashed the deal.

HD announced that it is now in "discussions with affiliates of Bain Capital Partners, The Carlyle Group and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice for the purpose of restructuring the previously announced agreement for the sale of HD Supply."

That means that the buyers want a better price because they cannot raise the cake to make the purchase. Obviously, no sane bank or investment firm wants to make a high-risk loan for a high-leverage deal. Not with most of them holding the bags on other deals that they could not syndicate to institutional investors.

Market conditions are also causing the retailer to drop the price at which it will buy its shares in its previously announced "Dutch auction" tender offer to purchase up to 250 million shares of its common stock at a price between $39 and $44. Market conditions have caused the company to drop the price range to between $37 and $42 per share.

If the market needed a sign that the credit markets are on the critical list, this is it. One of America's largest companies lowering the price of a buyback and three premiere private equity firms unable to raise capital for a previously announced deal. Imagine how bad things are getting for less marquee deals.

Home Depot shares are down almost 6% in the pre-market.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Jim Rogers is pretty much the man, and anyone who followed the advice in his book Hot Commodities has already made a bunch of money. But his latest comments on state of the financial world are not so encouraging.

Rogers said the fallout from the subprime mess has "got a long way to go'' in an interview with Bloomberg News. According to the piece:

"This was one of the biggest bubbles we've ever had in credit,'' Rogers, chairman of New York-based Beeland Interests Inc., said in an interview from Hong Kong. "I have been and am still short the investment bankers in America. I'm also short homebuilders.''

Uh oh. Jim Rogers is one of a handful of experts who really is worth listening to when he opines on macroeconomic issues, even if you don't like what he has to say.

The business world is anxiously waiting to hear what Ben Bernanke has to say, but Rogers' wisdom may be even more important for individual investors to heed.

Also on CNBC this morning, Jim Rogers said he did not support a Fed bailout of the stock market and said that while Bernanke is "not very smart," he hopes he won't make that mistake.

Ben Bernanke told us in May that the impact of subprime mortgages collapsing would be contained. But The Financial Times begs to differ. FT reports that leading bankers are trying to calm the global markets even as they admit that the shockwaves from the U.S. subprime collapse could put private equity deals on hold for the next few months.

Is Ben Bernanke wrong? How could a former Princeton economist not understand that problems in one category of loans might make banks nervous about other loan categories? Or is it simply that Bernanke took his job as economic cheerleader in chief a little too seriously?

One banker thinks it could be three months before subprime's damage takes its foot off the brakes of private equity. Bob Diamond, Barclays president, predicted the consequences of the subprime collapse could take more than a year to be resolved. However, he said the leveraged loan market should recover more quickly: "We would expect at some point over the next two to three months to see that market at more normal volume levels."

Maybe Diamond is right and Bernanke is righter. But is it possible that their predictions are just wishful thinking? I don't know. What do you think?

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.