Subprime mortgage defaults peaked and will slowly begin to slide during the next two years.

But don't get excited -- option ARMs and ALT-A mortgages are now beginning to rise at a very rapid rate. According to analysts I follow, notably Ivy Zelman, the next tsunami will be larger than the one we just went through.

And the banks are not currently valuing these mortgages as if they will default at this rate.

Be sure to read all 7 reasons the stock market isn't going up any time soon.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

There is not much not to like about my friend's house. It has a four-car garage and sits on a beautifully manicured lawn. The 3-acre property has a lake out back where geese hang out during the summer. The other day, I noticed the house next door was for sale. My friend casually informed me that the home was abandoned some months ago.

Looks like the subprime crisis has migrated to the ritzy suburbs. Several homes in this neighborhood have been abandoned, which has forced the neighborhood association to check on the properties to make sure everything is okay. Keep in mind that these homes probably fetched at least $600,000 before the market crashed. Of course, that's all changed now.

Builders flooded the market with spec homes, which is one of the reasons why the market has so much excess inventory. People were eager for their slice of the American Dream, whether they could afford it or not. Bankers were willing to feed these delusions with cockamamie loans that would re-set interest rates at the drop of a hat. There is plenty of blame to go around.

Homeowners struggling to pay their bills must find the federal government's bailout of troubled Wall Street firms confusing.

After all, government officials have repeatedly said they would not help victims of the subprime mortgage crisis, reasoning that they should not get rewarded for making bad decisions.

It's Economics 101 that people who take bad risks will continue to do so if there are no consequences to their actions. But the $85 billion rescue of American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), the bailout of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), the possible rescue of Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE: WM) and the shotgun wedding of Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) brings all of these cherished notions of free markets into question.

Why is the government helping companies who sold mortgages to people who they knew couldn't afford them and repackaged the loans into securities that were unloaded on unsuspecting investors -- but doing little for individual homeowners?

It's been over a year since I last posted on liar loans -- these are mortgages which the borrower obtains despite offering no documentation on their income, employment or assets. These liar loans were also known as Ninja loans -- which is short for no income, no job, and no assets. The Associated Press reports that such liar loans will add $100 billion to the losses our economy is already suffering thanks to $400 billion worth of losses from subprime mortgages.

The problem we face as an economy is that it's hard to see where the liar loans end and the collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other asset-backed securities begin. In a sense, they are all liar loans. In the case of the mortgages, borrowers created paperwork that was inconsistent with their actual financial condition so they could get the money. In the case of CDOs, the issuing investment bank bought a AAA rating from a rating agency which created the illusion that the security was safe. Conceptually, there is little difference -- both depended on essentially forged paperwork to make the loan go through.

Why did banks issue liar loans? They were afraid to lose market share. But that doesn't make it right. As my mother used to say to me, if the other kids jumped off the Empire State Building, would you do it too? AP brings this to life in an interview with David Zugheri, co-founder of Texas-based lender First Houston Mortgage who said, "Everybody drank the Kool-Aid. They knew if they didn't give the borrower the loan they wanted, the borrower could go down the street and get that loan somewhere else.''

Bloomberg News reports that banks' subprime write-downs have hit $500 billion. The last time I checked, that figure was $400 billion. Bloomberg reports that New York University economist Nouriel Roubini forecasts such losses will ultimately total $2 trillion. I wonder if he would revise his estimate upwards.

Recently banks have been taking write-downs for their Auction Rate Securities (ARS). Bloomberg reports about $1.9 billion has been set aside so far to cover ARS losses. It notes that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) set aside $900 million to cover potential losses and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) each estimate that their ARS buybacks will cost $500 million.

Write-downs have been going hand in hand with capital raising. But banks and brokers have not been able to raise enough capital to offset the losses. Bloomberg calculates that they've raised "$353 billion of capital to cope with the write-downs. The gap between the losses and capital infusions, which stands at $148 billion, has regularly narrowed to about $80 billion as capital raising follows write-down announcements."

Can banks and brokerages raise another $1.7 trillion to keep up with the write-downs that Roubini forecasts? I sincerely doubt it.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup stock and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.

Joining the likes of other larger financial institutions and banks, mortgage giant Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE: WM) joined the billion-dollar loss club. The company's quarterly results reflected a $3.33 billion loss, bringing its total loss reserve to $8 billion due to bad loans in its portfolio.

Similar to what kindergarteners face, the mortgage industry's "monkey see, monkey do" attitude just keeps the billion-dollar losses coming quarter after quarter. WaMu did say that it would be trimming up to $1 billion in costs by the end of next year. Ah, how nice! If you're a WaMu shareholder, does that statement give you any comfort? Probably not.

To go from an $830 million profit in 2007 to a $3.3 billion loss in 2008 is unspeakable, but it's almost the norm these days with mortgage-involved entities floating at the top of the fishbowl. Even though WaMu reflected a capital raise in April in its loss, the company still lost $3.34 per share even at that. Writeoffs totaled $2.17 billion and the company changed the time period from three years down to a year in which to evaluate defaults in its prime mortgage portfolio. As of this morning, WM shares are down over 20% from before Tuesday's report, and down over 57% for this year as well.

The Washington Times reports that Phil Gramm, UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) vice chairman and senior economic advisor to John McCain (R.-AZ), thinks we're a nation of whiners. Gramm's UBS is a leader on three important fronts in the effort to destroy the U.S. economy: the $1.3 trillion subprime mortgage catastrophe, the $330 billion Auction Rate Securities (ARS) freeze, and a tax evasion scheme of unknown magnitude.

The Washington Times quotes Gramm as saying: "We have sort of become a nation of whiners. You just hear this constant whining." UBS probably pays Gramm well for his services so I can see where he's coming from. He is making money and he's the only one who matters. But if you think he is helping McCain, think about these things:

H&R Block (NYSE: HRB), whose colleagues include Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) and Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX), reported Q4 and full-year earnings on Monday. The numbers looked pretty good to me. For Q4, revenues increased 11% to $2.6 billion and earnings per diluted share from continuing operations increased 17% to $2.11. According to this article, analysts' expectations were beat by $0.08. For the full year, the top line expanded by 10%, coming in at $4.4 billion. Earnings per diluted share from continuing operations jumped 21% to $1.39.

The tax specialist said it worked with 23.5 million clients, the most ever in its corporate history. That's a nice indication of health for the company, I suppose, but here's a better one. The board decided to juice the dividend. The annual payment will now be $0.60 per share, translating to a 5% increase. Okay, 5% isn't too exciting, I'll grant you, but H&R Block has now increased its payments to shareholders every year for over a decade.

But, as the company stated in its release, although it intends on repurchasing shares over the next few years, it will remain "particularly disciplined" about the subject in the next fiscal year. Essentially, that means shareholders should not expect a lot of share repurchases for a while. H&R Block is reacting to the fact that it is still rebooting itself after being victimized by the subprime mortgage crisis. I'd rather hear a more aggressive stance in terms of buyback plans, but I'd say there is prudent motive in such posture given the company's state.

It's heartbreaking to hear about the increasing numbers of homeless people as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis and the ensuing foreclosures. It's even more distressing to read that 2 million children will be affected as a result.

Many who join the ranks of the homeless are actually middle-class families. Many are renters of homes that were foreclosed. Practically all of them never expected to be in this situation. According to a study released in April by the National Coalition for the Homeless, "76% of displaced homeowners and renters are moving in with relatives and friends. About 54% are moving to emergency shelters. About 40% are already on the streets."

Well, I find this whole situation infuriating for several reasons. One is personal responsibility. I can't help but wonder how a middle-class family with two earners does not save enough for a rainy day. And if you can't manage that, what were you doing buying a 3,000-square foot house in the first place?

Another reason this is all so infuriating is lack of proper laws to protect tenants of foreclosed homes. What are renters to do if they're not even notified in time to arrange their affairs? What are they to do if they lose their deposits? What are they to do if the new owner doesn't assume the rental responsibilities? More protection is required in such situations.

Then there is good old plain greed and callousness. Somehow, they always seem to go hand in hand. The housing market is oversupplied, we hear. There is a great deal of inventory standing empty. Many foreclosed homes stand empty. So it wasn't enough that lenders, with their greed, brought the country to this mess, now they can't even see a way to redeem themselves. It's true, they're not in the business of renting homes out, but if there are empty homes, and there are homeless people, then perhaps they should. Or at least find a way to get those empty homes filled out.

Knowing them, they'll likely to still manage exploit the public even in this while making a buck or two for themselves, then why not do something good for a change?

Angelo Mozilo's nine lives may be about to run out. So far the CEO of Countrywide (NYSE:CFC) has avoided the most severe taint from the collapse of his mortgage company and its questionable practices.

The State of Illinois, the land of Lincoln, will bring civil charges against Mozilo and the firm he started. According to The Wall Street Journal, In a draft of the complaint, Illinois alleges that the company engaged in "unfair and deceptive practices" in the sale of mortgage loans.

One of the main pieces of the complaint is that mortgage brokers pushed loans on people, even it they could not afford them.

Of course, as is always true with charges bought by attorneys general, there is some politics behind the claim. There have been a number of Countrywide foreclosures in the Illinois.

To some extent the politics do not matter. Based on other investigations of Countrywide, it appears that management did quietly push its people to move loans out like cars off an assembly line.

What is most troubling is that no one in government anywhere caught onto the practice earlier.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Barclays (NYSE:BCS) become the most recent bank to raise billions of dollars, bring in $8.8 billion from investors including the sovereign funds in Qatar and Singapore.

"Through our capital raising ... we strengthen our capital base and give ourselves additional resources to pursue our strategy of growth through earnings diversification," Barclays Chief Executive John Varley said, according to The Wall Street Journal.

That is a nice way to say the bank was running out of money.

The news says more about the future than it does the past. A bank as large as Barclays would not raise such a large sum if it believed the credit crisis was largely over. The firm clearly expects more fall-out from mortgage-related paper and LBO loans. Why else dilute the shareholders?

At least the fact that large funds will still put money into banks is good news.

If the tea leaves from the bank's actions are correct, the opinion among many Wall Street analysts that the financial crisis will extend into next year is right.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Harvard has come out with a study that says the housing crisis will be prolonged. According to Reuters, the research says, "Record foreclosures and limited access to credit will make it harder than usual to rebound from this U.S. housing market slump."

It is comforting when some of the smartest people in the world come to the same conclusion that everyone else has already reached.

The Harvard work is based on the premise that a combination of high foreclosures and tight credit will keep housing down longer than in the past. That may be true.

The people at Harvard can afford houses. No one else can.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Some analysts thought that once banks moved though their bad bet on subprime paper, they might start to see improvements in their earnings. Not so fast. Plain old loans for houses and condos are going bad so fast that lenders are about to get hit again on the bottom line.

The Wall Street Journal points out in one of it top stories that "Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums."

Many investors may say that the information is obvious, and that it was expected that falling real-estate prices would hurt banks. But the real victims may be bank shareholders. As large lenders take more losses on their portfolios, they will have to raise more capital and further dilute shareholders. Banking stocks which are down two-thirds from their highs could drop even further.

Now that banks are selling off these large loans, the quarterly reports for companies like Wachovia (NYSE:WB) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) are about to get hammered again. Wachovia trades at below $22, down from a 52-week high of more than $54. Wells Fargo has fallen from a 52-week high of almost $38 to $27. Regional banks like National City (NYSE:NCC) have had it worse. It shares have fallen from a one-year high of $34.62 to $5.25.

Selling in those stocks in not over. Not even close.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

With the U.S. congress trying to please all constituencies in this election year, especially those who took subprime mortgages and can't afford the monthly payments, where is congressional help for military families to save their homes from foreclosure?

A disturbing article on Bloomberg states, "In the midst of the worst surge in mortgage defaults in seven decades, foreclosures in U.S. towns where soldiers live are increasing at a pace almost four times the national average, according to data compiled by research firm RealtyTrac Inc. in Irvine, California."

With the stress of potential foreclosure on their minds, don't you think that this may impact their ability to fight in Iraq?

The article continues, "The Servicemembers' Civil Relief Act protects soldiers and sailors from losing homes for nonpayment of mortgages only while on active duty and for 90 days after they return home."

Ninety days?

Bloomberg News reports that banks have kept $35 billion worth of asset write-downs from making the leap from their balance sheets to their income statements. Accounting rules permit this but it delays the inevitable -- in which a write-down on the balance sheet flows to the income statement. The reason banks are using this delaying tactic is that they can't raise enough capital to close the gap. But until they do, others will be wary of dealing with them.

Here are some examples:

• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) subtracted $2 billion from equity for the declining value of home-loan bonds in its May 2 10Q without mentioning the deduction in the earnings statement or conference call with investors that followed; and.
• ING Groep NV placed 3.6 billion euros ($5.6 billion) of negative valuations in its capital account, while disclosing only an 80 million-euro depletion to income