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Solar stocks feeling the pain (LDK, FSLR, JASO, STP)

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.

JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) blew its quarter and lowered guidance, and now the group is under pressure.

I don't think I've ever written a positive word on JASO as they are in the middle tier, essentially a jobber for the solar space. The company make various feedstock products to the final product makers, while being dependent on the core technology and "root" feedstock polysilicon from the likes of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) and MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR). So it has a timing issue and margin compression issue. The company is facing lower final pricing of their products while having locked in longer term "commodity" pricing at higher prices. So its raw costs are not falling as fast as its own pricing.

The poly guys mentioned above and companies like Sun Power (NASDAQ: SPWRA), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) don't face these pressures as intensely, though that may not matter much today. STP reports on the 20th this month and I think it will give a clearer picture of the space. Meanwhile SPWRA keeps closing significant deals and FSLR reported the best and has little if any of the funding concerns. So for the leaders, it's a question of how low do they go before the long term positives catch up. Meanwhile, a few of the smaller shops like JASO are in a race against the credit crunch because they need to be able to renegotiate some of their longer-term input costs.

LDK and WFR are still companies that I feel are uniquely positioned, as both have a partial oligopoly status as polysilicon suppliers. In the $15's and lower, it's getting to the point where I may again trade around my core position and look for that beta pop on any significant Naz bounce. Also, this stock could move 50% higher and still be exceedingly cheap on almost any value criteria.

Suntech (STP) Solar shines for small cap expert

Over 32 years, the portfolio in The Oberweis Report has returned an average gain of 21.2% a year vs. 7.9% for the S&P 500. Here, money manager and newsletter advisor Jim Oberweis, Jr. looks at Suntech Power Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: STP).

"Long-term results notwithstanding, 2008 has been humbling, to say the least. No other year in our history has been as challenging.

"But in our experience, the most favorable buying opportunities tend to fall after a period in which the market has not performed well.

"Although year-by-year results can be volatile, disciplined investors who remain fully invested in a portfolio of high-growth equities selected using our methodology have historically achieved an exceptional average rate of return over long periods of time.

"Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd is one of the leading solar energy companies in the world as measured by production output of photovoltaic, or PV, cells, with leading positions in key solar markets such as Germany and Spain.

Continue reading Suntech (STP) Solar shines for small cap expert

Cypress Semiconductor Corp (CY) shines

In July, Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE: CY) posted record 2Q 2007 revenue. At $372.8 million for the quarter, up 8.7% from 1Q 2007, 2Q revenue surpassed the previous record revenue set in 4Q 2000 at the height of the dot-com boom. (Ah, those were the days.) Diluted EPS were $2.29 as compared with 1Q 2007 diluted EPS of a loss of $0.01. But let's examine that EPS figure. During 2Q, Cypress sold 7.5 million shares of its wholly owned subsidiary Sun Power. Cypress still has a $3 billion stake in Sun Power. Excluding the proceeds from this stock sale, diluted EPS is $0.16, much less but still much better than a loss. CEO T. J. Rodgers bragged on these results, noting that Cypress Semiconductor has survived when 47 of its competitors since 1982 have not.

Rodgers stated that demand for semiconductor products increased for the seventh quarter in a row, and he sees no slow down. Cypress is expanding its line of proprietary products, including PSoC (programmable solution on chip) models that offer touch-screen capabilities for cell phones, video gaming, and point-of-sale registers. Touch-screen capability is the wave of the future, as is HB-LED (high brightness light emitting diode) for all types of HD TVs, cell phones, and lighting products. Cypress forecasts HB-LED to be a $10 billion market annually within the next three years, much of which will rely on Cypress products. Cypress is also in the forefront of mobile communication devices, offering a peripheral handset controller that downloads music to cell phones ten times faster than previously. Cypress is also developing next generation high-speed holographic (3D) data storage systems.

Continue reading Cypress Semiconductor Corp (CY) shines

Sunpower should be helped by additional solar silicon supply

Following up on our earlier blog on pollution in Hong Kong, SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is a way to play solar power as this technology is finally ready for prime time.

Some numbers according to Think Equities Partners:
  • Revenue expected to grow from $237 million to $649 million to $982 million from 2006 to 2008.
  • EPS during this time period is expected to increase from $0.50 to $0.98 to $1.67.
These are big numbers. One big issue holding SunPower has been its ability to get the silicon to produce its solar-powered chips. However, silicon producers around the world have been building capacity to meet demand, therefore, supply constraints will become less severe.

David Edwards of Think Equities, due to a more abundant supply of silicon and continued strength in demand for SunPower's products, increased his price target to $60 late last week.

Buy this stock and go for the ride. TJ Rodgers, the CEO of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: CY), who is the founding investor of SunPower, says SunPower reminds him of Intel in its early days. Alternative energy is a big area and SunPower will be one to the main players.

Symbol Lookup
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DJIA+73.0010,270.47
NASDAQ+18.862,167.88
S&P 500+6.241,093.48

Last updated: November 14, 2009: 08:37 PM

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