We keep hearing that consumer spending propels 70% of our economy and that we will not see real growth without an increase in consumer confidence, meaning spend, spend, spend. This is very bad advice! Let other people spend -- you should be saving!

This is a theme I have been hammering on all year and I will continue to do so. I believe this is so important to our personal and national long term health that any true investment discussion, be it on the web, radio, television, newspapers or magazines, is just blowing smoke if it is not a primary focus.

In running a very tight stock screen recently for value plays Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) showed up on a list of 14 stocks. Interestingly all the large railroad stocks did. This reminded me of several stories I have done on the subject, the most recent being Chasing Value: Watch BNI -- the heck with Citigroup.

To summarize, about six weeks ago a Citigroup (NYSE: C) analyst declared it was time to sell the stock when BNI was trading in the mid $60s -- I said investors should do the opposite, it was a great value. Friday the stock closed at $76.98. Even at this price it is a value and ever more so with oil prices steadly creeping up.

It is not possible to know what level is the right level to enter the stock market and various analysts, gurus, journalists and economists have been weighing in this week as the market closed at a one month high, with some folks even becoming downright optimistic.

I might add that the true level we have reached is one of amusement to me because we all are trying to call the market bottom. I myself have entered the fray trashing Nostradamus along the way. This is as much hope, as fact, and folks are looking for clues everywhere.

Some are looking at historical precedent for clues. Technical analysts are combing their charts for patterns of market behavior. The uptrend has to be sponsored to some degree by short covering and momentum traders too.

Positive news was reported by Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) which said on Thursday, April 9 that it expects to post a record first-quarter profit of $3 billion, up about 50 percent from a year earlier, due to better-than-expected performance from Wachovia (acquired in December) and a strong performance in mortgage lending. This was all it took to send the market higher even before anyone has actually sifted through the quarterly report for themselves -- not due out until April 22.

I am not surprised that the market is up and I have been putting cash to work for the past six months; but not all at once; not without recognizing that I might be early; and not without a plan. This has included buying WFC most recently at $12.00 and selling naked puts at strike prices of $7.50, $9.00 and $12.00. My most recent post on the subject from last month was Chasing Value: The safest bank in the U.S. -- Wells Fargo.

If you have missed the recent market pop do not fret and do not chase it because it could change direction as many have called this a bear market rally.

What might be most prudent at this point, if you believe that the volatility will continue and the stock market will not see true lasting improvement for a while, is to segment the money you want to put back to work into four or five tranches and invest on a regular basis dollar cost averaging back in over time.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of WFC and I have open options.

Blogging for AOL has been an interesting experience over the last few years. For me it is one of those unplanned surprising things that pop up on life's journey every so often. For the most part it has been a rewarding experience. I have had to become a lot more thick skinned when receiving harsh and even crude comments from readers.

One of the great things has been the 'pen pals' I have made around the world. People that have taken to my stories and regularly add their insights. The dialogue makes it more informative and the immediacy somehow makes it more personal and real.

Just this morning I received a note from Dan, a frequent participant in the BloggingStocks.com dialogue. He had noticed that one of my colleagues Peter Cohan had picked up my infrastructure theme lately and was not able to find my stories about the subject from earlier in the year.

I think this is one of the themes that Peter and I could write about non-stop and it would not be getting enough attention. It is first and foremost about putting people to work doing things that the nation needs done anyway. If we have to run the printing presses let it be for things that last 80 to 100 years not 2 to 3. The following stories will illuminate the subject as to my views in more detail.

Thanks for writing Dan. I hope you and others will continue to comment and try and wake up our elected officials. I started banging this gong in February. Maybe someone in Washington will do something before next February.

• Suburban slums -- city centers being revitalized
• Fund roads & bridges NOT mad money stimulus
• Serious Money: Stimulate productivity not consumption
• Should Feds stimulate or stabilize; is there a difference?
• Re-think new stimulus package? Push infrastructure!

I think that the infrastructure story will continue to be a major theme next year and for many years to come. My stories have discussed roads, bridges, tunnels, highways and the like but future stories will be about water. In using the the picture above contributed by editor and writer Sarah Gilbert, I want to drive home the point that we all have expectations that our simplest needs will be met. That is not going to be so, if we do not plan for the future.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

A former senior manager at CB Richard Ellis Group (NYSE: CBG) in Southern California, now a partner at a private real estate company where I am an investor said to me this week that the stock market was just "white collar gambling".

This is a relatively common thought from Main Street and when my colleague Ron, made the comment it was hard to argue that it is not.

It certainly looks like gambling when you consider how momentum day traders place their bets, or options traders, or commodities traders -- and the past few years -- CEO's of major corporations.

I certainly was playing this theme up when I posted The great leadership disconnect: I bet the farm and you lose in September.

Earlier in the week Ron had brought up the fact that CBG stock had dropped from over $40 per share to under $4 and it seemed like it was bound to get back sometime in the foreseeable future for a huge gain. The following is the three year chart.

Ron is a smart real estate guy but he is not a stock market aficionado. He believed the risk / reward opportunity seemed like a no brain-er (not that he was going to invest). The first problem is that idea of the foreseeable future. I think the market is not foreseeing much lately. Most things seem quite cloudy indeed.

Actually I could not help but ponder the matter because, coincidentally, I was at a business breakfast the following morning where the speaker was a manager with responsibility for CBG's Asian portfolio investments. When Ron brought up the subject originally I responded that I did not follow the stock, but that it did not have to return to it's previous glory to achieve a great return on investment. Suppose it took two years to go from $4 per share to $6 or $7. Most anyone would be delighted with a 25%+ annualized return.

As it turned out, I saw my associate later that day and he pointed out that CBG had jumped 40% from the day before. WOW, some of the day gamblers, I mean traders, must have made a killing. Of course that is only if they were on the right side of the deal, and sold in time.

CBG closed Friday at $4.84, down 10% and has been volatile lately as the chart and the stocks recent moves indicate. It has a beta of just under 2 which means that it moves at twice the rate of the broader market.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own any shares of CBG. I do not do any day trading.

Giving some thought to what in the world Mr. Gramm was thinking about (or not), it seems to me that his angst last week about Americans being a bunch of whiners was quite self referential. He obviously has lost his sense of balance and is spending too much time with the country club crowd to realize that some folks are feeling true pain.

Unless he is getting free gas or his limousine driver is not speaking with him then how could he have missed the fact that everyone in our country has seen a rapid and significant rise in prices. Ask anyone driving a truck for a living, just as a sampling. I would not consider their plight frivolous.

For some reason he has also missed the fact that all three of our major automobile manufacturers Ford Motor (NYSE: F), General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Chrysler (now privately held) are teetering on bankruptcy.

I have been fortunate enough to have traveled to the four corners of the United States, Alaska and Hawaii and I would actually say we tend to be overly optimistic at times in the US. By comparison many of the 25 countries I have had the chance to visit can be some what negative. I would place us somewhere in the middle.

Most people in the United States and for sure shareholders of losing companies have been railing against executive pay for many years. It is generally agreed the salaries, bonuses, stock options, deferred compensation, and retirement packages have become ridiculous and do not reflect anything other then the "good ol' boy network" operating at its worst.

Compensation committees substantiate their decisions in a fashion that outlines plausible deniability not merit, value or truth. They do not reflect shareholders, employees, or customers best interest. They reflect a tight knit group that has to pay and pay big so that they can get theirs in the next round.

This brings me to the National Basketball Association and its use of the salary cap. We just witnessed an NBA finals where the better team won (Boston Celtics in six games) and that is the nature of the game. It's five on five, the best player does not take every shot and the best player cannot defend the other team by himself.

Regular readers know that I enjoy Barron's Weekly (subscription required) one of the best business journals around and that it has provoked some of my better investment ideas. However, even Barron's can fall prey to bad or incomplete reporting, (as if there were a difference), as they benefit from market activity and can stretch an idea too far, becoming all too common.

Barron's incomplete and common story was in the June 9, 2008 issue titled "Timing is Everything". What I find common, and thus objectionable, is the fact that they choose to tout Appel Asset Management's like so many brokerage houses do numerous funds (for the fees), ignoring basic tidbits like said fees, and taxes. The Appels seem to do an admirable job for their investors but they do not beat the indices, so who cares?

Their simple strategy is to invest in the two broadly based hot ETF's, counting on momentum lasting more than one quarter, and switch them out each quarter. This they claim takes only an hour of work every three months, how lovely. In the story they state "From 1979 through 2007, Marvin Appel would have (emphasis mine) returned 16% a year, before fees, better than the 15% a year performance of the Russell 2000 Value Index". They also leave out how long the approach has actually been in place.

Do stock market analysts take creative writing or are they the ultimate bandwagon guys? The lame information provided by stock market analysts keep providing more fodder for my rants. Last Friday -- Lehman raised Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing relative valuation and strong U.S. gas exposure....well duh!

I have ranted and raved about the poor performance of most analysts for almost the entire time I have been writing for BloggingStocks but the wonders never cease. The stock is at a 52 week high and now they take notice. I don't have their "training" yet I was pushing APC at $40, its low. It closed at $78.15 near its all time high and now Lehman makes the call. To quote a 90 year old Wall Streeter when asked to share what he had learned from his 70 years in the market "Nobody knows nuttin". The following is the two year chart for APC.

The Motley Fool ranted in a similar vain when they discussed a study by Patrick Cusatis and J. Randall Woolridge of Pennsylvania State University that studied 20 years' worth of published earnings estimates made by Wall Street industry analysts. They discovered that analysts were consistently overly optimitsic and that practically speaking, you should ratchet them down to the tune of around 40%; or you'll be sorry.

This week I received a long rant from Dan, one our very astute readers. I extracted the following from what he wrote:

Yesterday I received an offer to "Cut My Indebtedness" by shifting over to a bi-weekly mortgage payment, tied to my paydays. The "offer" goes on to show how much I will save over the term of the loan by enrolling in their plan. The kicker is (& here is a reference to an old Country song I remember from years ago, "The Large Print Giveth, What the Small Print Taketh Away") the small print. There is a $9.00 per month "participation fee". A fee to participate? ...my rant. THEY CAN"T STOP YOU FROM MAKING ADDITIONAL PRINCIPAL PAYMENTS.

This has happened to me as well, and if you have lived in your home for a few years or more, it is likely you received a similar offer. Dan raised many valid points in his longer version, but the three main points are that you should focus on the small print, there should not be a fee for paying down your loan, and finally if you have a loan that allows prepayments of the principal amount you can make interim principal payments any time you want.

One feature of bi-weekly payments that Dan overlooks or fails to distinguish, and that homeowners should recognize, is that they reduce the amount of interest you pay over the life of the loan without additional "monthly" principal contributions. That is a real savings, and the bank feels the service of processing this has a cost to them and a value to you. On most loans, the savings of many thousands of dollars would greatly exceed the fee, and the fee does not increase on larger loan amounts. Perhaps it is their presentation of the offer that appears deceitful.

Here is a detailed explanation of bi-weekly payments. The example they give you indicates a savings of almost $58,000 interest on a $75,000 loan. Fees or no fees it provides substantial benefit tothe borrower.

Happy Mothers Day

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

In this month' Money Magazine story, Calming words for troubled times the final words were by Deena Katz, Chairman, Evensky & Katz Wealth Management, who shared this "My mom always said, if you're going to do it, don't worry; if you're going to worry, don't do it."

Are you a worrier? Do you fret over everything? Can you undo those things you have already done that you are worried about? Sometimes it's tough. But maybe you should consider it. How does that apply to the stock market or investing in general. From that perspective it is very simple. Do not invest in anything that will keep you up at night.

While this may be good advice for most aspects of investing there is one time that it might cost you. When stocks are rising few people are worried. When stocks are falling everyone's worry factor rises. As their worry factor rises they tend to become sellers. This may relieve one of their worries but it also may relieve them of their money because it contradicts two other old bits of wisdom.

"Buy low and sell high" is a common refrain said tongue in cheek because a bell does not ring announcing the highs and lows. However, even 'my pal Warren' would advise that "investors should buy on fear and sell on greed". So then the modified version of mom's advice melding it with market realities is that you should be worried when others are not and remain calm when everyone else is panicking.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

The following story came to me this week from a reader who's sentiments may be shared by a lot folks. If I am the last one on the planet to have seen it and it has been circulating around the web for a long time, please excuse my redundancy.

The story pokes fun at business bureaucracy, mismanagement, corporate fairness, employee relations and more. Finding this type of story more often in your in-box displays a kind of recession fatigue and growing cynicism.

A foreign company and an American company decided to have a canoe race on the Missouri River. Both teams practiced long and hard to reach their peak performance before the race. On the big day, the foreign company won by a mile. The Americans, very discouraged and depressed, decided to investigate the reason for the crushing defeat. A management team made up of senior management was formed to investigate and recommend appropriate action.

Their conclusion was the foreign team had 8 people rowing and 1 person steering, while the American team had 8 people steering and 1 person rowing. Feeling a deeper study was in order, American management hired a consulting company and paid them a large amount of money for a second opinion. They advised that too many people were steering the boat while not enough people were rowing.

Several weeks have passed and I still can't help thinking about how tough it is to invest in individual stocks and how many ways there are to be blind-sided. When the Board of Citigroup (NYSE: C) finally asked for the resignation of CEO Chuck Prince at an emergency Sunday meeting, after the company announced that an earlier released figure of a $6.5 billion write-down was actually going to be $11 billion, were they surprised of just disgusted?

Was that the last straw or were they in the dark as to the magnitude of the losses. As investors we have to consider a vast array of issues to determine if a company is worthy of investment. I know most people do not, but lets give them the benefit of the doubt and say they do. So you look at the sales and services offered, the quality of management, the various performance metrics like P/E, P/S, P/B, ROE cash flow, debt and more. You may look at the macro economic environment, interest rates, even the weather but in the end what do you know?

After you analyze everything you can get your hands on you are still just giving it your best shot (in the dark) and hope for the best. If the Board of Citigroup can't keep track of it's own company, its management structure, its risk analysis and it's exposure to major market conditions that will greatly affect the company, how are we supposed to?

Just one more good reason to stay diversified. If you are not, you should give that as much consideration as you do any individual investment. Was the Citigroup Board really in the dark? I don't know, but you should not allow yourself to fall prey to their folly.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

This one obviously became "A Bridge Too Far" fetched, as Alaska Abandons Infamous 'Bridge to Nowhere' included in last year's budget as part of the traditional pork-barrel spending that goes on in Washington -- usually following long speeches about trimming the fat.

There is probably nothing more universally consistent in a campaign speech than the promise to cut federal spending. Of course politicians are equally consistent on failing to do so once they are in office. However, in the case of this infamous bridge to an Island of a few hundred residences, the political heat, under the proverbial magnifying glass, was too much.

The public outrage and direct lobbying from various budget watchdog groups and with the support of Senator Tom Coburn, Representative Jeff Flake, and Representative Mark Kirk, the State of Alaska has officially abandoned plans to pursue the infamous Gravina Bridge. Money is still earmarked for the state, but the recently elected new governor decided to drop the project.

The stock market has taken some big hits lately with the Dow down 387 - still preaching calm and change certainly being the most notable sign of fear amid many down days. But why? Why the selling? Why the fear? The reason is so simple and cannot be stated more clearly than reminding you all of your childhood, playing with your friends, when all of a sudden someone yelled "Last one out is a rotten egg!"

Yes the story line is clear enough; we have all heard about sub-prime loans, Alt-A loans, falling home values, falling housing starts, shrinking liquidity, Federal deficits, higher oil prices, unsustainable foreign market growth, consumer demand coming to an end, and you can contribute a few more of your own boogie men to round out the list. These are all real issues our economy will have to contend with and I do not scoff at any of them. However, our economy has sustained itself though much worse and it bothers me when I see hyper market activity putting more money in the hands of brokers who make money when people are trading, whether it be up or down, they just like a higher volume of activity.

As the market reached ever new highs, we started hearing that things may have heated up too much. Sure they heated up to much, but volume started to slow also as people became more cautious and volume also slows down during summer vacation months. Slowing volume (less trading) is no good for Wall Street. So if we are not trading up then we should be trading down and that is exactly what we are hearing now and sure enough volume is back up and fees are being collected.

I do most of my transactions online on my own, but I put a little money in an account with a full service broker friend of mine, because he is a friend, and a good sounding board for some of my ideas. Sure enough he calls the other day to discuss what is happening in the market, specifically some great 'put' opportunities. After going through the numbers I asked him if he was doing anything now -- what was he investing in? He said he was not, he was keeping his cash for now waiting for an even better buying opportunity later.

This bothered me! Here he was suggesting his client (me) buy when he personally thought it was better to wait! I hate this, yet it is so common. I know my friend felt awkward when I confronted him about this, but, I let it be, and he gets it, because we have discussed this before. In his defense, he was bringing to my attention something I might want to know about, and would do, that most investors would not -- naked puts. The majority of the time my friend is not so much a broker as he is a financial adviser, and helps less knowledgeable folks set up diversified investment plans. For this I would recommend him.

For stock picking, I would not recommend anyone that is not a household name and those are few and far between but my "pals" Warren and Carl are not too bad. If you are afraid of being the rotten egg, or more importantly, have invested in questionable stocks, than by all means adjust your portfolio so that you can sleep better at night. There are plenty of good buys right now. It is not important if the market is up or down it is important to invest for the long term. The last one out is not the rotten egg, the short term thinkers are the rotten eggs. It is also worth re-reading Who says the stock market is too cheap? for some market perspective.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well - INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.