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Warner Bros. looks for a strong finish

With only two months left in a rough year, Warner Bros. may have caught some good fortune with "The Departed," Martin Scorsese's bloody film about the mob in Boston. The film has brought in $91.1 million in the U.S., and is likely to do well overseas and when it is released on DVD later. Critics loved the film.

It has been a comparatively long time since Warner's last big successes like "Harry Potter" and "The Matrix." Both movies came out with sequels as well, giving them "legs," as they say in L.A.. It's true that "Superman Returns" has brought in almost $200 million this year, but it was also very expensive to make, weighing in at $270 million.

Warner Bros. may be coming to the conclusion that smaller is better. Pictures like "Superman Returns" and "Poseidon" are so costly that getting a decent return may be nearly impossible.

If Warner stays away from very expensive films and has a few modest successes over the next couple of quarters, the management at the studio may avoid being the departed themselves.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Can Warner Bros do better than "Beerfest"?

"Beerfest" is one of the handful of movies that Warner Bros. has on the 2006 annual box office list (it ranks no. 83, with $19 million in total gross). I saw it and would say it is one of the worst movies in the past ten years (and I loved "Jackass: Number Two" so don't think I am just being a film snob).

The point is, investors were certainly hoping that Warner would do better this year. A recent downgrade of the TWX stock by JPMorgan was based, in part, on the projections that the financials of the company's film unit would get worse.

And, things are not looking up at the Time Warner film unit. It has had no hits this year, and even "Jackass" ($51.4 million so far), could ultimately pass "Superman Returns" ($198.5 million), which is Time Warner's biggest box office release in 2006. "Superman" cost so much to make that it almost did not matter how much money it brought in. It was going to lose money under even the best of circumstances.

Aside from "Superman," Warner has had some other pictures that the studio had hoped would be hits. "Poseidon," a remake of the ship disaster movie demonstrated that hope springs eternal. Even the first version with Gene Hackman in the starring role was an awful movie. "Lady In the Water," by kooky director M. Night Shyamalan, was another hopeful. The movie will probably not hit $50 million. Most analysts thought that the animated film "The Ant Bully" would do well. It had voice-overs by Julia Roberts, Nicolas Cage, and Meryl Streep. It is unlikely that any of them worked for free. The film may not do $30 million in the US.

The film-making business is notoriously fickle. But the costs of running a studio are not. Disney decided to cut 450 people at its production unit earlier this year and cut the number of movies it would put out. At least if it had a dry spell its costs should be less.

For Time Warner and its stock to stage a full recovery, it will not suffice that its cable and network businesses do well. The film unit will have to pull its own weight. Right now, it isn't.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/Wall St.

Superman returns super-positive receipts for Imax

Regardless of how Time Warner's (TWX) movie division fairs overall this summer, The Man of Steel has been a boon for Imax (IMAX). Choose your metaphor: "Superman Returns" either soared with, flew away with, or as Sandy Brown of TheStreet.com says, "lifted" Imax this week when the movie took in $6.83 million during its first seven days as an "Imax 3D Experience." This special 3D-enhanced version of the film is currently showing on over 70 Imax screens in the US.

In recent summers movie-goers have shown themselves to be more the up to the challenge of craning their necks for recent Hollywood blockbusters such as "Batman Begins" and whatever they called the last Matrix movie, as opposed to just the forty-five minute glacier, coral reef, or mountain adventure odysseys that still dominate the big big big screen.

 A little 3D Imax buzz can only help Time Warner, which has seen the decent revenue taken in by this lynchpin film in its summer schedule overshadowed amidst repeated reminders in the media that, yes, other superhero movies have opened stronger -- and that is without even mentioning the decidedly mixed reception the movie got from critics.

[Disclosure: I have seen "Superman Returns" once, on the regular-sized big screen, liked it, and will probably see it again.]

(You can read more about Superman breaking a box office record from Christopher Campbell at Cinematical).

'Superman is not coming to save the day for Time Warner'

... so said Richard Steinberg (Steinberg Global Asset Management) in a Reuters story that reports TWX shares increased more than one percent last Monday. Advanced screenings of "Superman Returns" got positive reactions from investors and some movie critics. Now, after the film's Wednesday opening Box Office Mojo is calling the opening gross solid, while  Cinematical and others call the take "respectable." Seems to be some disappointment that Superman, with 21 million on Wednesday underperformed compared with Sony's two Spider-Man flicks -- both of which had Opening day grosses around the 40 million mark.

The Reuters piece goes on to say that Time Warner may need more than one good showing by one blockbuster this summer to balance out the spring-time disaster that was "Poseidon." The coming weeks will show whether word-of-mouth will drive more eyes toward the Man in Tights or send them away. Long-term success or failure will depend on whether the inevitable two sequels will hold onto enough box office to make the revived movie franchise a solid investment for the studio division.

Time Warner rescued by Superman?

superman returns billboardSomewhere in the deep dark attics of Time Warner, Superman has been waiting. He's been gathering star dust, or whatever it is that superheroes gather when they lie in attics so long. Up until last year, he was stored right next to Batman -- until he, you know, Begined with the $200 million, eighth-highest-grossing movie of 2005.

It was about time Superman answered the call and swooped down to save Time Warner from its no-big-movie-having self, says Rick Munarriz for the Motley Fool. The company has no top-10 movies this year, despite big hopes with action block-wanna-be-busters V for Vendetta, Firewall, and Poseidon.

That will certainly change with Superman Returns, says Munarriz, and he doesn't even much care if the movie doesn't make back its $260 million production budget. If people love it (and they will!), "it can turn the spigot for more cost-effective sequels in the coming years. This is about more than just one film or one Halloween season with a few more trick-or-treating Superman kiddies than in years past. It's about making a statement."

I, for one, hope Superman can save Time Warner -- if only for the fun I'll have writing headlines about it. [Photo opendoorexit]

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 05:43 AM

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