Catastrophe bond capacity is maturing, and not much of it is coming back. In the first quarter, $1.8 billion in cat bond risk capital matured, and only $508 million returned in the form of new issuances, according to Thomson Reuters. This quarter, $2.77 billion is maturing, and the absence of first-time issuers makes it unlikely that the market will replace it all. More than a billion of it was from State Farm's Merna Re transaction. The successor to it has already been issued, cleverly named Merna Re II, at only a fraction of the previous bond.

Merna Re, the largest catastrophe bond of all time, is set to mature in June, and State Farm is already putting together its replacement, the creatively named Merna Re II. The successor, planned for issuance in April, is said to be for $400 million in risk capital, though investor demand could push it as high as $700 million. This still pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion that the original brought in the door.

If State Farm is able to stimulate demand for Merna Re II, which would protect the company from non-California earthquake risk in the U.S., it will be third cat bond to come to market in 2010, which is expected to be a strong year for this form of risk transfer. The cat bond market fell silent after the near-collapse of American International Group (AIG) in September 2008 but was still the third busiest in terms of capital issued in the history of the cat bond market. Heading into 2009, prospects for the cat bond space seemed uncertain, but a robust fourth quarter eventually resulted in a year-over-year increase, driven mostly by repeat issuers.

Catastrophe modelers, insurers and reinsurers are still sorting out the damage from Windstorm Xynthia in Europe and the earthquake in Chile. Taking only the highest of high-end estimates, the damage from these two catastrophes could exceed $12 billion, resulting in fairly steep property-catastrophe losses long before hurricane season begins. With three more major property reinsurance renewals remaining for the year -- at April 1, June 1 (Florida) and July 1 -- there is plenty of time for the impact of these events to be absorbed into reinsurance pricing.

Nine catastrophe bonds have matured so far in the first quarter of 2010, removing $1.8 billion in risk-transfer capacity, according to data from Reuters. The insurance industry has compensated with $508 million in new cat bond risk capital, with the busy fourth quarter helping to absorb what is maturing now. Only one cat bond has closed so far this year, The Hartford's (HIG) $180 million Foundation Re III. But, the first quarter is usually a quiet one for the cat bond market.

It partly replaces the $105 million in protection that Foundation Re D afforded. Swiss Re (SWCEY) and SCOR (SCRYY) are also among the insurance companies with bonds maturing that have at least partial coverage from new cat bond issuances. Another four bonds have matured, however, with no new related issuance, affecting Munich Re (MURGY), AXA (AXA) and others.

The end of a year means a rush of data from the insurance and reinsurance industries, as treaties are renewed for the coming year. Catastrophe bonds are a part of this annual orgy of data production, as a flurry of activity occurs in December, with the industry's commitment to this form of alternative property-catastrophe risk-transfer setting the tone for the year to come. The cat bond market isn't big enough to push reinsurance rates, but you can generally get a sense of what the coming year will look like for cat bonds based on pricing for traditional reinsurance.

The catastrophe bond market is still running strong. This alternative to reinsurance, in which insurers can package up their risk and sell it to investors, may be a small part of the market, but carriers are clearly committing to it.

Swiss Re (SWCEY) and Scor (SCRYY) both have launched cat bonds, for $150 million and $75 million, respectively. This brings the fourth quarter issuance total to $840 million and the 2009 year-to-date tally to just over $2.6 billion, based on information from Artemis.bm and Guy Carpenter's GC Capital Ideas.

Mother Nature and mankind took it easy on the insurance industry in 2009. The total cost of both natural and man-made catastrophes fell profoundly in 2009, from $267 billion to $52 billion.

Insured losses fell, as well, according to Swiss Re (SWCEY). Insured natural catastrophe losses dropped to $21 billion, with the man-made variety hitting a mere $3 billion. Combined, insured losses pushed up to $50 billion in 2008, thanks in large part to the effects of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
• Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Last December Chemtura Corporation (NYSE: CEM), a specialty chemicals company with a market cap of about $1.9B, said it might sell itself, and now The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and Apollo Management are in talks to buy the company, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• In part one of a series to help explain the reasons why The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) collapsed, the Wall Street Journal said that the troubled firm was torn apart by executives who couldn't agree on what course to take, including raising capital and slicing mortgage and related bonds from its inventory. And each of about six attempts to raise capital fell part.

• The American investor and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) chief Warren Buffett said the United States is already in a recession that is deeper and will last longer than the public expects, the Economic Times reported.
• According to the Telegraph, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) is planning to sell Barclays Life Assurance Company, its life assurance arm, which has over GBP7B of funds under management. Sources believe potential bidders for the unit may include Pearl, Swiss Reinsurance Company (OTC: SWCEY), General Re, Canada Life and XL Re. Market commentators believe that on an embedded value basis, the unit is currently valued at around GBP1B.

Here are a few highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) posted a big loss and warned of more to come.
• CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) beat expectations even though its fourth-quarter profit fell.
• DreamWorks Animation Inc. (NYSE: DWA) 2007 earnings and revenue soared, lifted by Shrek the Third.
• HJ Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) posted solid third-quarter earnings and revenue.
• Koppers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: KOP) beat fourth-quarter expectations and approved a share buyback plan.
• Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) raised its first-quarter and full-year guidance on subscriber growth.
• Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE: NT) missed expectations due to rising operating costs.
• Origin Agritech Ltd. (NASDAQ: SEED) 2007 earnings sank, missing analysts' expectations.
• Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) beat fourth-quarter estimates and offered revised guidance.
• Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) narrowed its loss due to a surge in subscribers.
• Swiss Reinsurance Co. (OTC: SWCEY) quarterly EPS plunged but 2007 decline was less than expected.
• Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year results.

Also, analysts predict that bank losses will be the highest in 20 years. Timothy Sykes recommends investors not become starstruck by superstar companies such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG).

Upcoming results to watch for include Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS), Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), and Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

MOST NOTEWORTHY

• Jefferies upgraded shares of Thornburg Mortgage Inc Corp (NYSE: TMA) to Buy from Hold as they believe the stock is at an inflection point, characterized by accelerated earnings and dividend growth.
• Expedia Inc (NASDAQ: EXPE) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse, as they believe the company is well-positioned to benefit from global e-travel and media opportunities, strong free cash flow, and attractive valuation.
• Perot Systems Corporation (NYSE: PER) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital following its Q4 report.

• HSBC raised Swiss Reinsurance Company (OTC: SWCEY) to Overweight from Neutral.
• The Estee Lauder Companies Inc (NYSE: EL) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Lehman.
• Cantor upgraded Genomic Health Inc (NASDAQ: GHDX) to Buy from Hold.