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UBS AG (UBS) fourth quarter earnings preview

UBS AGThe earnings parade continues tomorrow, and in the morning Wall Street will get to see how Swiss Bank UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) made out for its fourth quarter.

The company is going to be reporting in the morning, and expectations are not running very high for the troubled bank. Analysts on average are looking to see the company show a loss for the quarter of $1.15 per share. While this looks pretty bad at first glance, it would be a great improvement over the same period last year in which the company showed an actual loss of $5.43 per share.

Continue reading UBS AG (UBS) fourth quarter earnings preview

American banks pay the most for their capital

Banks around the world have been raising capital in the last few months. If the market is efficient, then the cost of capital for these banks should tell us something about how risky they are. Based on the relative cost of capital of banks in the U.S. compared to those in France, Germany and Switzerland, the world's riskiest banks are right here in the good old USA. The safest banks? French ones.

How so? Here is the rough (due to different capital structures) after-tax cost of capital for the banks in different countries:

  • U.S.: Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is paying a 17% interest rate and Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) pays almost 17%
  • UK: Barclays pays 16%; HBOS, Lloyds TSB; and Royal Bank of Scotland pay about 12%
  • Germany: Commerzbank pays 10%
  • Switzerland: UBS's interest rate is relative bargain of 9.9%
  • France: BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and four others pay the lowest rate -- 5% -- for their capital

Maybe there's some sort of trading opportunity to short U.S banks and go long French ones. C'est la vie!

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, will be published by Portfolio on December 26, 2008. He has no financial interest in Goldman or Morgan Stanley securities.

Global Q&A: Investing During a Global Crisis

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Allan Nichols, editor of Morningstar InternationalInvestor, who identifies the pitfalls and opportunities in global market today.

Q. Allan, how can investors protect themselves should the financial crisis in the US result in prolonged bear markets around the world?

A. Studies have shown the majority of returns from the stock market have been concentrated over a relatively few days, so it is important to have some exposure. My experience, though, has shown bear markets last longer than you think. Asset allocation is particularly important and I would increase cash from my bond allocation rather than from my stocks. Now is the time to buy really high-quality stocks at attractive prices, those that have sustainable advantages, or what Morningstar calls "moats."

Morningstar borrowed the concept of a moat from Warren Buffett. Just as a moat around a castle protected the castle from invaders, a company's moat protects the firm from competition. Moats can be generated from being the low-cost producer; having intangible assets, such as patents or other unique intellectual property; and high switching costs that make it uneconomical to change to another product or service. All of these improve a firm's ability to compete as well as earn returns above its cost of capital.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Investing During a Global Crisis

Investing in Euro 2008 (and Swiss punctuality)

You can say a lot about the Swiss (sorry Mom!), but at least they are always on time. There is a great article over on the BBC that details Switzerland's obsession with time. Everywhere you turn in Switzerland, there's a watch, a clock, or a timer of sorts. I love visiting my Mom who's a recent transplant to Zurich. The trains, the shows, food service -- everything is exactly on time.

It's going to be interesting when hordes of tourists from across Europe and hinder pour into Switzerland June 7 for the start of the European football (that's soccer to you and me) championships. Extra trams and trains are already being rolled out to make sure fans make it everywhere they need to go -- on time.

So, how does one think about "playing" the Euro 2008?

Continue reading Investing in Euro 2008 (and Swiss punctuality)

'Death crosses' multiplying across Europe

Many investors use moving averages, and more specifically, moving average "crossovers," where one suddenly starts trading above or below the other, to try and gauge which way a market may be headed.

Among technical analysts, one combination has often been seen as a good pointer to prospective long-term trends.

The bullish version is called a "golden cross." That is when the price of a security rises above its short-term average (traditionally, the 50-day moving average), which is also above its long-term average (traditionally, the 200-day moving average).

Continue reading 'Death crosses' multiplying across Europe

Another Cramer pick in Europe: Siemens AG

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer continued his stock pick series for "Investing in Europe" with Germany's Siemens AG (NYSE:SI/ADR). He likes the conglomerate that participates in 9 sectors and considers it Europe's version of General Electric (NYSE:GE). The breadth of its businesses also lets it win projects that other companies cannot handle.

Here is the problem with this call: Siemens is a great company but its valuations look higher than most of the other large conglomerates. Its market cap is $131 billion on a currency adjusted basis. Part of its100% rise in ADR's is because of the weak dollar, but even in Euros this stock is up more than 60% over the last year. Keep in mind that these are all ADR's, and even active ADR's tend to trade fewer shares in the US than their US-based competitors.

Philips Electronics (NYSE:PHG) was his top EU pick on Monday, and that is another conglomerate.

His pick from Tuesday was Switzerland's ABB Ltd. (NYSE:ABB), a key infrastructure play.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

U.S. losing competitiveness to Switzerland: is our money too 'Mad'?

As a girl who considers herself hip to the news, from Main Street to Wall Street to pop culture, I'm always on the lookout for trends. And the past few days I think I've spotted one, which I like to call "Too MAD Money." It's a riff on Greenspan's irrational exuberance. Let's look at the factors:

  • The U.S. economy has fallen with a thunk off the top of the World Economic Forum's competitiveness survey. Replacing the States from its perch atop the economic heap: Switzerland. The U.S. is now sixth and Switzerland was lauded for its efficient markets and "sound institutional environment."
  • This must mean that the U.S. is not, indeed, sound, or efficient. At least, not so much as Switzerland, Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Zoinks! Crushed by those efficient northern Europeans.
  • At the same time, the U.S. indices are nearly all-time highs.
  • At the same time, the U.S. economy is showing signs of a coming slowdown.
  • And then, I read this headline: "Mad Money ... Mad Market." Albert Phung from Investopedia argues that Jim Cramer's famous "effect" is proof that the U.S. market does not behave efficiently. And suddenly, it all makes sense.

It's all Cramer's fault. Well, it's not really Cramer who's causing the irrationality and inefficiency, but his audience and the media types who fuel him. Because of the dozens of web sites who eagerly track his recommendations (as she puts her face in her hands, looking at her own blog), because of the millions who eagerly buy his recommended "Booyah Buys" and sell the ones which "don't have legs." Because of the endless promotion of some testosterone-fueled market-watcher by the CNBC engine and countless others. Because of you, who clicked on this link...

It's all our fault. We did this! Now get out there and buy rationally, people!

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-45.0510,246.21
NASDAQ-6.522,160.38
S&P 500-6.111,092.40

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 12:36 PM

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