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T-Mobile's Q4 goal for Google G1 phone: 500,000 sold

According to Taiwan's CENS website, T-Mobile USA will sell half a million of the Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) G1 smartphone built by Taiwan's own HTC and sold exclusively (so far) by T-Mobile USA. Although that's not up to par with announced Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 3G sales, it's no slouch expectation either.

When the G1 phone is released for sale on October 22, that leaves just over two months for that projected sales figure to be hit. Although the unit will cost a relatively paltry $179 with a two-year contract, can T-Mobile USA really hit that sales number? I have severe doubts, although T-Mobile USA will easily be able to start competing with established players like Apple in 2009.

Although Apple has an entire year headstart over rivals like the G1 and the Samsung Instinct, there are many customers who want the novelty of a touchscreen smartphone but don't want to be locked down into the Apple ecosystem -- even though it works very well and would serve most customers 100% perfectly.

But then again, Apple's first-mover advantage and its incredibly powerful marketing muscle may just keep it floating above the likes of the Google-powered G1 for quite some time. Google's efforts with the G1 could make it a second-tier player here while Apple dominates. That is, unless, T-Mobile USA starts off quick with half a million in unit sales this holiday season and never looks back. What is your projection?

Could Sprint dump Nextel to join with T-Mobile?

Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) seems to be on the mend from a perception standpoint. CEO Dan Hesse is still running television advertisements with his direct email address and a personal message to potential Sprint subscribers. The cellular carrier has a refined, electric image and has a decent competitor to Apple, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone. Is it still in bad financial shape? That answer would be yes, as it continues to lose customers every single quarter.

While a Sprint/T-Mobile partnership was rumored this summer, the technology used between the two companies is incompatible. From a layman's perspective, it's precisely the problem that doomed the Sprint acquisition of Nextel. To this day, the brands still operate independently in many ways. That's been a death knell for the company, while larger competitor AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) perfectly merged its network with the now-gone Cingular over a few years. Still, would T-Mobile really want to team up with Sprint? Only if Sprint jettisons the Nextel brand and network sometime in 2008.

Analyst Christopher Larsen with Credit Suisse makes a decent argument for Sprint and Nextel parting ways as soon as possible, citing the recent $3 billion fund raiser Sprint announced. Could an impending corporate divorce be in the works? Sprint has already written off tens of billions in the bungled Nextel merger, but it could raise over $7.5 billion by selling Nextel.

Still, with the third- and fourth-largest wireless players (Sprint and T-Mobile, respectively) ripe for consolidation, combining two very different networks better work if there's even a hint of a future combination between the two. But right now, that may be the only choice: Verizon Wireless and AT&T are kicking butt in the wireless market in the U.S.

High-dividend yield in a down market

Yesterday's announcement by Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) to cut but not eliminate its dividend payment got me wondering if there were other companies out there with absurdly high dividend yields that hadn't cut their payments. High-dividend yields are an old-fashioned way to look at companies and one that's fallen out of fashion as tech companies plowed their profits into research. But a 10% yield -- hey even a 7% yield -- is something we'd all be happy to find these days.

Traditionally, companies with high-dividend yields were those with low-growth potential, like utilities. Like Freddie, many of the current high-yield companies were created by a falling stock price. And like Freddie, they could always cut the dividend to keep the yield from getting out of whack. But, if they think the stock will rebound, maybe they won't cut it for fear the dividend cut would be yet another thing to drive off investors.

The highest yielding big company I found was Biovail (NYSE: BVF), Canada's biggest drug maker. The company was hit with an SEC complaint that key executives were lying about earnings. The company and the founder just settled a fight over the future direction of the company -- with the founder stepping aside. The stock, at about $10, has been cut in half in the last year. In May the company declared a quarterly dividend of 37.5 cents a share, which gives it a 15% yield at the current price.

Continue reading High-dividend yield in a down market

T-Mobile should settle text message lawsuit

T-Mobile is in legal hot water for allegedly failing to protect consumers from unwanted text messages. This is the last thing the German-owned telecom company needs.

The company, which has struggled for years to gain traction in the U.S., now must deal with a costly and potentially embarrassing class-action lawsuit. According to CNET.com, a federal judge has refused to throw the case out, which will force T-Mobile to shell out big bucks in a settlement.

Other telecom companies and consumer groups will watch the case closely. For one thing, text message costs are skyrocketing and show no signs of slowing. This is particularly galling since people pay for all incoming text messages.

"Since 2005, rates to send and receive text messages on all four major carrier networks have doubled from 10 cents to 20 cents per message," Slashdot.org noted recently. '"If the same pricing was applied on a per-byte basis to a single MP3 song download, it would set you back almost $24,000 according to one estimate."

T-Mobile appears particularly vulnerable to the suit since unlike other telecom companies it does not offer the ability to block all text messages though people do have access to filtering software. Consumers faced the choice of either leaving the carrier and paying a $175 termination fee or absorbing the costs, according to plaintiff's attorneys.

"This ruling is a big win for T-Mobile customers and we're looking forward to presenting our case to the court," said Steve Berman, managing partner of Hagens Berman, the law firm representing plaintiffs, told RCRWireless.

No doubt the lawyers will get a nice payday as well.

Virgin Mobile buys Helio for chump change

I've seen it many times: a cool product that finds few customers. That seems to be the case with Helio's mobile phones. Basically, customers didn't want to pay premium prices for such things as access to MySpace and other new-fangled features.

It's a tough lesson (and expensive). SK Telecom and EarthLink (NASDAQ: ELNK) formed Helio as a joint venture in 2005 with start-up capital of $440 million. SK Telecom invested an additional $270 million in the venture last year.

Yet, in the end, Helio turned out to be a big dud. That is, the company sold out for a measly $39 million to Virgin Mobile USA (NYSE: VM). In fact, the space is full of dead companies, such as Disney Mobile and Amp'd Mobile.

I had a chance to interview Frank Dickson, the co-founder and chief research officer of MultiMedia Intelligence. According to him:

Honestly, the merger is a desperate move. Overall, the MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) model makes sense in a limited number of situations. For example, if a cable MSO wants to leverage its customer base and offer triple or quadruple play offering, there is a clear distinctive competency and the MVNO route makes sense.

Continue reading Virgin Mobile buys Helio for chump change

A Virgin Mobile-Helio hookup?

Since its IPO last year, the shares of Virgin Mobile USA Inc. (NYSE: VM) have imploded -- going from $15.69 to a low of $1.90. The stock has lifted somewhat lately though, and is now trading at $3.43.

Actually, the company has confirmed that it is talking with Helio -- majority owned by SK Telecom (NYSE: SKM) -- about a possible merger.

Both companies are known as mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), which means that they provide cell services by using another carrier's infrastructure. Unfortunately, the MVNO model has been extremely difficult to pull off (in fact, there have been several high-profile blow-ups in the space, such as Amp'd).

So will a combination help things?

To get some perspective on things, I had a chance to interview Frank Dickson, who is the Chief Research Officer at MultiMedia Intelligence. According to him:

Continue reading A Virgin Mobile-Helio hookup?

Closing Bell: Oil surge drowns equities

Maybe it was tightening bank standards, maybe it was strong business orders for the services sector. Or, maybe it was a big hike in oil prices back to the $120 mark. Stocks took it on the chin today. Below are the unofficial closes for the major US index readings:
  • DJIA 12,968.97 (-89.23; -0.68%)
  • S&P500 1,407.48 (-6.42; -0.45%)
  • NASDAQ 2,464.12 (-12.87; -0.52%)
  • 10YR-TBond 3.845% (unch.)
  • 52-WEEK LOW CLUB
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) traded much lower, bringing Wall Street down after Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) withdrew its $43.7 billion bid to acquire Yahoo Saturday. Shares fell 15% to $24.37.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Oil surge drowns equities

A Deutsche Telekom-Sprint deal is far from a certainty

Shares of Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) are rising on a Wall Street Journal (subscription required) report that Deutsche Telekom AG (NYSE: DT) is poised to make a bid for the wireless telecommunication company. If the report is accurate, Sprint's long suffering shareholders should do as the Steve Miller Band song suggests "take the money and run" because the deal may not happen.

For Sprint, though, this may be its only hope. Sprint shares have slumped almost 40% this year as the Overland Park Kansas-based company tried in vain to gain marketshare against larger rivals including Verizon and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T). The commercials starring the company's affable CEO Daniel Hesse haven't helped much either. Remember when Hesse was named CEO last December, board member Irvine O. Hockaday Jr. remarked that Hesse "has the board's full support to take decisive actions necessary to improve our performance."

Does that mean a sale to the former German telecom monopoly? The deal makes sense in theory because combining Sprint and Deutsche Telekom would create the top wireless company with more than 82 million customers. Verizon, which is a joint venture between Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and Vodafone Group Plc. (NYSE: VOD) has 67.2 million customers while AT&T has about 71 million wireless subscribers.

But as Bloomberg News points out, analysts argue that integrating the Deutsche Telekom and Sprint Nextel networks wouldn't be easy. Moreover, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security may not look kindly on a foreign company taking over a U.S. telecom provider for national security reasons, the news service notes.

Even so, the arguments for the merger are so compelling that it might be worth the risk.

Sprint takes a dive... finally!

Most of the time, I read the news because I want to be informed about the world. Looking through articles, I spend my time on the ones that affect my world, give me an idea about what to expect in the future, and generally make everything clearer. Once in a while, though, I read the news for the sweet taste of revenge.

Looking through the paper today, I noticed that Sprint seems to be in big trouble. Yesterday, their stock dropped more than 9% after they announced a loss of over $29 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007. While this loss was largely tied to Sprint's disastrous merger with Nextel, a fair bit can also be chalked up to Sprint's abysmal customer service.

I have a lot of experience with Sprint's customer service. When I first got a cell phone, almost ten years ago, my provider was a small regional company. While I could only call from a very constrained area, I was generally impressed with the level of customer care that my provider offered. Most of the time, my phone calls were answered by a person, not a machine, and the company was very nice about crediting my account in cases of incorrect billing. Unfortunately, I was only with them for a few months before they were bought out by Sprint.

Continue reading Sprint takes a dive... finally!

Major wireless carriers unveil $99.99 unlimited calling plans - except Sprint

Tom Taulli wrote Tuesday about Verizon (NYSE: VZ)'s unlimited wireless calling plan, and competitors AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) and T-Mobile (part of Germany's Deutsche Telekom) followed suit with unlimited wireless calling plans for U.S. customers. This is a first in the wireless industry for the major carriers, but it's a welcome one for many consumers. Both AT&T and T-Mobile will offer unlimited calling starting by the end of this week -- T-Mobile starting today and AT&T starting tomorrow.

Where is Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S), you may ask? The carrier also announced unlimited calling plans two weeks ago, but just in a few select markets -- and starting at $119.99 per month. Although the unlimited calling plans vary from carrier to carrier, generally, there is a $99.99 per month price of admission with all of them. T-Mobile offers the best value, with all call minutes and unlimited text messages included. Why did all the carriers -- except Sprint -- unveil unlimited calling within just a few days of each other?

Something has to keep growth churning along in the wireless industry. With 85% of Americans now owning a cellphone, wireless is heading for commodity status (it may already be there), where price wars will begin erupting and "me too" marketing campaigns following shortly thereafter. The PC industry knows all about this. But price wars only help the consumer -- not the wireless carrier. Yes, many of us heavy wireless users may soon have lower bills, but the carriers may have lower bottom lines as well. What wireless company stocks do you have in your portfolio? Will this cause more customers to abandon landline telephones and switch to unlimited-minutes wireless only, pumping in growth into the wireless sector for the time being? Food for thought.

T-Mobile: Home phone prices could drop for almost everyone

Get ready for the price of making phone calls to drop, probably a lot. T-Mobile is introducing a product to replace most home landlines with internet-based phone service. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The service will be available only to T-Mobile cellphone customers. To sign up, they must buy a $50 Internet router from T-Mobile and pay $10 a month for unlimited local and long-distance domestic calling."

It is a good bet that the service will be rolled out to reach customers that T-Mobile does not have as cell subscribers or that AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Wireless will have to match the program. In the case of AT&T and Verizon (NYSE: VZ), they will be competing with the shrinking but profitable landlines businesses which are being eroded by VoIP, especially from cable companies.

AT&T and Verizon Wireless have already announced flat-rate unlimited calling plans for $99.99 a month. The price war in the cellular market is cutting these stocks down to 52-week lows, but the deal for consumers is outstanding. And, that pricing pressure is about to move into the consumer home phone market.

A cellular price war. A home phone price war. For shareholders in major telecoms, it's bad news For consumers, it doesn't get any better.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com

Newspaper wrap-up: Fannie Mae may take $14B earnings hit

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • In what may be a sign of interest from large media companies looking to delve into the "content delivery space," the Wall Street Journal reported that EdgeCast Networks is set to announce it has raised up to $6M from Steamboat Ventures, The Walt Disney Company's (NYSE: DIS) venture-capital arm.
  • Barron's "The Trader" section says they'd stay away from Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), even though the Bush administration's subprime-mortgage freeze program caused the stock to rebound some. Barron's speculates that Fannie should take an earnings hit in the range of $6.4B to $14B.
OTHER PAPERS:

Apple's iPhone running into European roadblocks

With Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone setting the stage to become a phenomenon in Europe like it has in the U.S., some minor glitches are starting to unravel in the company's plans there. This week, a German court wanted T-Mobile (part of Deutsche Telekom AG) to change the way it markets the iPhone. Unlike in the U.S. -- where Apple and AT&T have a five-year exclusive partnership -- things aren't that easy in the world of European "open market" wireless.

In other words, the German court doesn't want T-Mobile to sell the iPhone only in conjunction with a two-year service contract (the same deal AT&T gives U.S. iPhone customers). The court, in addition to that rather-large order, also asked that the T-Mobile version of the iPhone be opened up so it can work with other wireless providers. Ouch!

European wireless giant Vodafone is most likely to blame here, as it had a gripe with T-Mobile's marketing plans.
T-Mobile says that it reserves the right to claim damages from any moves Vodafone makes that would impede iPhone sales, but this is just the beginning. Apple's tight grip on revenue sharing from each mobile partner it signs a contract with may not fly in some parts of the world -- something Apple should know by now. But that's the power the iPhone has -- wireless carriers will do anything to offer it to customers.

Newspaper wrap-up: Countrywide, Home Depot cut back on buybacks

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:

Starbucks WiFi iTunes program goes online in larger markets

The Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) partnership with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) first announced almost two months ago to bring the iTunes Store into Starbucks locations is now up and running. A San Francisco area writer noted the program's opening in the city's 360 stores last Wednesday. The program offers coffee drinkers the ability browse through the iTunes Store on their WiFi enabled computers, iPhone, or the iPod touch and purchase music tracks.

The biggest feature is the ability to purchase tracks then currently playing in the Starbucks store, but the iTunes connection does not extend to other internet sites, or video and other content in the store. Consumers must still pay for WiFi access to other internet sites in the stores, due to an agreement between Starbucks and T-Mobile. Ken Lombard, the head of Starbucks Entertainment, told Ellen Lee, a San Francisco Chronicle contributor, "we'll never turn our store into a music store" and she notes, "through the Apple partnership customers will have access to any music they like." Unfortunately, if you do not live in the larger markets, you will be waiting until as late as the end of 2009 to see this feature fully operating, as it is extended to the 6,000 U.S. Starbucks locations.

I've commented on this program before, when Starbucks rolled out the iTunes "Song of the Day" that ended last Wednesday, coincidentally. I would argue that in many ways Starbucks is becoming a music store, even if they do not think they are. Maybe not a conventional one, or a large retail chain with a music section, but with the establishment of a record label, Hear Music, and the partnership with iTunes, Starbucks is taking all of the same steps that many music stores have taken in the past. After all, before Tower Records folded last year they had started selling digital tracks. Starbucks is certainly in no position to file for bankruptcy, but the partnership with iTunes makes for a better deal than if a "StarbucksTunes" store had opened.

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Last updated: October 13, 2008: 06:28 PM

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