Maybe days with no solid economic data are the best after all. The Saudis denied that OPEC was considered moving away from oil being quoted in US Dollars and gold put in new all-time contract highs. T. Boone Pickens was also out with his new 2010 oil price predictions this morning.
Energy/oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens wants those investors who are expecting oil's price to drop amid an oil supply glut to know they are likely to be on the wrong side of history, and fairly soon.
Pickens Tuesday reiterated his forecast that oil prices will pass $75 per barrel before the end of 2009, and move considerably higher in 2010, CNBC reported.
At the zenith of the speculative bubble in the oil patch -- when crude hit $147 per barrel in July -- you had everyone from T. Boone Pickens to Prince Alaweed touting $200-per-barrel oil by the end of the year.
Crude is now trading around $40 -- down $107 per barrel in less than six months. Unbelievable!
And this latest drop comes after OPEC voted to cut daily production by an eye-popping 4.2 billion barrels per day.
Needless to say, those euphoric longs in the oil stocks got destroyed. Most energy stocks lost 50% to 70% of their value during the course of the sell-off in crude.
And remember those television commercials with T. Boone and Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) CEO Aubrey McClendon pushing for the expansion of natural gas?
Well, natural gas prices are down 60% from their mid-year highs.
If you put money into T. Boone's Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) as recently as September, when the stock was trading at $20, you now own Mr. Pickens' vision for $5.
Memo to T. Boone Pickens: before you write another book about the art of the comeback, make sure your comeback is complete and that your career is on stable ground.
With the market in the toilet and investors fleeing for the exits, Pickens has reportedly moved the fund almost entirely into cash -- perhaps a sign that he has abandoned his long-term bullish outlook on oil prices.
However, Pickens' contributions to America now go beyond wealth-building. While he initially made his name as a Carl Icahn-style corporate raider back in the 1980s, he's moved on to finding solutions to our dependence on foreign oil. The Pickens Plan has garnered the support of the Sierra Club, former Clinton Chief of Staff John Podesta, and even Senator Barack Obama -- an impressive feat given that Pickens is an ardent Republican.
And he's not out money yet. Apparently he just gave $63 million to Oklahoma State to pay for a football stadium.
The large hedge fund run by Texas energy king T. Boone Pickens has lost $1 billion this year. He bet that oil would go up. Instead, it went down. That makes his push for wind power and the use of natural gas to run cars look a little silly.
According toThe Wall Street Journal," the downturn in energy has blindsided the industry veteran, leaving one of his hedge funds that focuses on energy stocks down almost 30% through August." Pickens says that oil will move back up unless the global economy goes into a very deep recession.
The loss make Pickens look like a fool. He has been lobbying both in Congress and in public that high oil prices are killing the U.S. economy. The U.S., he says, needs to move its energy consumption to natural gas and wind energy. His big push is to cut America's dependence on foreign oil.
His plan relies on converting the auto industry's manufacturing process to one that builds cars that use natural gas. The industry is moving toward electric power. He also wants to set up windmill farms all over the U.S. How these will connect into the current electricity power grid still has to be worked out. In other words, it may not work at all.
If oil prices keep going down, oil may still be the least expensive way to power cars and industry. The huge cost of turning the nation's infrastructure to operating on other energy sources is simply too great. And Pickens is losing his credibility as an energy expert if he can't even forecast the price of crude.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
"We've looked at several ways to play anticipated growth in wind energy; we've also considered titanium makers for that industry's ties to the production of lightweight, modern aircraft," notes Bill Martin.
In his BullMarket.com, he explains, "While the two trends might not appear to have much in common at first glance, Hexcel Corp. (NYSE: HXL) offers a way to play both the aircraft and wind markets.
"The connection is the lightweight, composite materials Hexcel makes that are used by producers in both sectors. Hexcel develops and manufactures advanced structural materials.
"It is the largest U.S. producer of carbon fiber; the world's largest weaver of reinforcement fabrics; and the number-one producer of composite materials.
"Its product was initially developed for the aerospace industry, but is now used in a wide range of applications -- from golf clubs to satellite arrays, and from the rotor blades of wind turbines to life-saving monocoques for Formula 1 race cars.
"It's been a rollercoaster ride for Hexcel's stock in the past 12 months. The shares hit their one-year peak of $27.19 in December 2007; by January 22nd they had plummeted to $17.. The shares rebounded through May, only to fade again. Year to date, HXL is off about 15%.
T. Boone Pickens does not care if the price of oil is falling. His opinion is that most of the drop is over and that his plan for wind energy is still viable and necessary for future U.S. independence from crude imports.
Pickens could not be described as faint-hearted. Rumors are that his $7 billion BP Capital hedge fund took a 35% haircut in July by betting the wrong way on oil and gas. It is a paper loss, but must sting nonetheless.
Some argue that Pickens is old and monumentally rich so gambles on wind and oil don't mean much for his own fortune. That could indicate that his conviction about wind-powered energy is not based on greed. Since he has spent his life aggressively accumulating wealth, that is not likely.
What is likely is that he thinks oil prices may stay very high and that his alternative energy will do remarkably well because it is infinitely renewable. If so, it is too bad his hedge fund cannot invest a few billions into wind technology. He can't afford another 35% loss. At some point his convictions may put him in the poor house. At least as it would be viewed by a billionaire.
T. Boone Pickens has been in the national media quite a bit lately. The Texas oil billionaire, who now commands a hedge fund in Dallas, has given hundreds of millions to his alma mater -- Oklahoma State -- and now is spending nearly $58 million of his own money to convince the U.S. to get off foreign oil and into alternative energy. Pickens is 80 now -- he is obviously not doing this for the money. Should we listen to him? Based on his outstanding business history, I'd say yes.
The oilman with decades of experience in energy futures and hedging predictions seems like he has turned his back on oil -- the precious juice that made him his fortune. But when someone with the successful past of Pickens says that the U.S. can't drill its way to success with more oil, we should probably listen.
Pickens began lighting up the media this week with advertisements on radio, in newspapers, on television and even a Facebook page and a complete YouTube channel. Picken's Plan is to reduce American dependence on foreign oil by one-third over the next ten years -- and he's fronting a good start off with his own money, which he's pouring mostly into wind energy. In fact, Pickens announced the world's largest wind farm last year, which he plans to build in Texas. Pickens, never one to not speak his mind, said "This whole thing, all it can do is get worse ... the only thing that could turn it around is global recession."
Since this book is a collection of Nocera's best work spanning the past 25 years, this is definitely one you'll want to pick up. It includes lengthy profiles of T. Boone Pickens and Steve Jobs (both more than 20 years old), the latter of which should be read by anyone who is considering an investment in Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).
Nocera has a unique ability to put together telling profiles of some of America's most important and controversial -- like Henry Blodget and Patrick Byrne -- business minds that provide real insight without disintegrating into pseudo-psychoanalytical babble.
It would be nice to see Nocera put together a full-length book of original material but this is a good start -- if you like his New York Times columns, this is worth picking up.
When Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) spurned Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s offer to acquire the company last month, many shareholders were outraged. Carl Icahn has acquired a stake in the company and he's rattling the proxy fight saber. Meanwhile, Yahoo has been sued by a group of shareholders alleging that the company and its officers and directors breached their fiduciary duty in failing to negotiate in good faith with Microsoft.
Court documents unsealed in Delaware Chancery Court appear to be quite damaging to Yahoo's management. The papers show that Yahoo rebuffed a bid of $40 per share from Microsoft in January of 2007. Bloomberg quotes one of the company's more quotable shareholders, T. Boone Pickens: "Whoever's suing the Yahoo management and board of directors, if they had a $40 offer and didn't take it, they're going to want to cut their throats for being that stupid. Anybody who sued them has got a good lawsuit, I'd say. I'd hate to be on that board of directors right now.''
The shareholder lawsuit alleges that the company's CEO, Jerry Yang used his power "to delay, to refuse to negotiate in good faith and to erect roadblocks."
The complaint alleges that Yang ignored the counsel of compensation consultants in structuring change of control terms for employees, in a deliberate effort to make an acquisition difficult.
If all of this is true, Yang has got to go as Yahoo CEO. Even if it isn't true, the company's performance in recent years is pretty compelling evidence that change is needed. He is probably the number one CEO on the hot seat right now
Yesterday was a tough day in the markets, with the Dow falling 199 points. But, if you follow some of the legends of finance – such as Carl Icahn, T. Boone Pickens and The Blackstone Group's (NYSE: BX) Steven Schwarzman – you will notice that they are getting aggressive.
Keep in mind that these guys have been through multiple market cycles. And, if history is any worthy benchmark, it's during times of instability where the big money is made.
Pickens is focusing on the energy industry. He sees major demand/supply imbalances and is buying various stocks. He is also interested in natural gas and alternative fuels.
As for Icahn, he's doing what he does best – shareholder activism. He senses when companies are vulnerable and seems to relish an attack on corporate managements and boards. Of course, he's gearing up for a fight with Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO). Interestingly enough, he persuaded Pickens to buy 10 million shares.
And, with Schwarzman, he's buying up the bank debt of companies that went private. Because Blackstone sees many deals, it has an extensive database of opportunities.
In other words, the legends of finance are confident in the long-term. They are making some big bets -- based on lots of experience and due diligence -- and not listening to the short-term noise. All in all, these are some valuable lessons for investors.
Barnes & Noble Inc (NYSE: BKS) is considering a bid for rival bookseller Borders Group Inc (NYSE: BGP), the Wall Street Journal reported, a move which would allow Barnes & Noble to improve profits and reduce costs. Antitrust issues could prevent a deal.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Carl Icahn's effort to remove Yahoo! Inc's (NASDAQ: YHOO) board has picked up new supporters, including T. Boone Pickens, who acquired a 0.75% stake. Some Yahoo shareholders believe it is still too early to predict whether Icahn will be able to carry July 3's shareholder vote.
A Financial Times investigation discovered that Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) incorrectly awarded top ratings to billions of dollars to debt products due to an error in its computer models. Moody's said it is in the process of "conducting a thorough review" of the rating of the constant proportion debt obligations, which should have been up to four notches lower.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to the people briefed on the matter, the New York Times reported that the buyout of Penn National Gaming Inc (NASDAQ: PENN) by Fortress Investment Group (FIG) and Centerbridge Parters may involve revised terms. The sources said the negotiations may "delay or even imperil" the deal.
USA Today reports that oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens is placing a $2 billion bet on wind power. Pickens' Mesa Power plans to build the Pampa Wind Project in the Texas Panhandle. It will eventually cover 400,000 acres and generate enough power for more than 1.3 million homes -- making it the largest wind farm in the world.
And Pickens is helping General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) in the bargain. That's because he's buying GE turbine technology. GE is expected to deliver 667, 1.5-megawatt wind turbines in 2010 and 2011. Jeffrey Immelt, GE Chairman and CEO said, "As America's demand for energy escalates, it is clear that wind can and will play a bigger part in meeting that need. We're excited to partner with an energy visionary like T. Boone Pickens to bring our wind technology to the marketplace."
With oil hitting $127 a barrel, I hope this project is the first of many. It will take many different sources of alternative energy to reduce U.S. demand for black gold. Wind power is certainly a good alternative. And if Pickens and GE get richer in the process, that's fine by me.
There are many that fear the bear hasn't died. Maybe he's hibernating. But if the bear isn't gone, he's at least lost some teeth. In the last hour of trading today, the DJIA was up more than 900 points from its intraday lows seen just last Monday. Despite weaker home prices trends not seen for 20 years and despite an absolutely dismal ugly Consumer Confidence report, the market managed to do well today despite mixed index averages at the closing bell. There was not a single earnings report that can be used for "the focus" that turned the whole market. It looks like there was actually real buying interest coupled by short covering. Here are the unofficial closing bell index averages for today:
DJIA 12,532.60 (-16.04; -0.13%)
S&P500 1,352.99 (+3.11; +0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,341.05 (+14.30; +0.61%)
10YR-TBond 3.492% (-0.03)
Monsanto (NYSE: MON) rose almost 10% to $114.54 after the agriculture giant raised guidance for both Q2 and for fiscal 2008 based on strong seed sales and all other markets firing on all cylinders.
It's been a big day for Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK). The company said that it has made a big gas discovery in Shreveport, Louisiana, which could have material impact on its output. The reserves could amount to 20 trillion cubic feet, and Chesapeake is pumping up its capital expenditures by $275 million this year and $675 million in 2009.
No doubt, the expectation is that there will be some serious needs for energy, despite the recent slowdown in the US economy. It certainly helps that natural gas prices have been particularly strong. And, for the most part, natural gas is critical for basic needs, such as electricity and heating. Oh, and it tends to be cleaner.
On CNBC today, energy tycoon T. Boone Pickens said that he owns Chesapeake's stock (and yes, he had some nice things to say about the company). He also thinks that oil will remain above $100 per barrel for the second half of the year.
In today's trading, Chesapeake's stock price is up 3% to $46.45.
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Maybe days with no solid economic data are the best after all. The Saudis denied that OPEC was considered moving away from oil being quoted in US Dollars and gold put in new all-time contract highs. T. Boone Pickens was also out with his new 2010 oil price predictions this morning. 
Energy/oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens wants those investors who are expecting oil's price to drop amid an oil supply glut to know they are likely to be on the wrong side of history, and fairly soon.
This oil trade takes the cake. 
Memo to T. Boone Pickens: before you write another book about the art of the comeback, make sure your comeback is complete and that your career is on stable ground.
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