With Yahoo, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) stock in the dumper, the CEO spot looking for a newcomer and musings about the future of the company underway, perhaps there is a small bright light for the internet pioneer. Wireless provider T-Mobile will use Yahoo!'s mobile search as the default on all its phones' mobile web browsers.
While that may not be the biggest victory one can think of, it does help. Mobile search and web browsing has been increasing in usage (though still small), and although T-Mobile USA is only the nation's fourth-largest mobile provider, just the fact that Yahoo!'s services will keep the largest wireless providers from using competitive mobile search products is a blessing for Yahoo!
Making money from mobile web search is another matter. Although Yahoo! and T-Mobile said they will share revenue from the new arrangement, the question is this: are any mobile search companies and wireless providers making any significant revenue from mobile search partnering? At this point in time, it's hard to see that just based on skimpy usage. While it may not be that way in the future. T-Mobile International, which replaced Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) mobile search with Yahoo!'s solution earlier in 2008 and Yahoo! also has its fingers in mobile search with the largest wireless provider in the U.S., AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T). Perhaps Yahoo!'s rebirth will be around mobile technology after all. It's just a question of when.
The conventional wisdom is that the next field where the search engine wars will be waged is mobile devices. The theory behind that is that PC users have already decided what search company they want to use. In about 70% of the cases in the US, that is Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).
With the computer market pretty much gone, if Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) wants to pick up any market share from Google, it has to aim to make deals with handset companies and cellular service providers. It is going down that path, but the success of the move is likely to be modest.
According toReuters, "Yahoo Inc announced an expansion of its mobile Web portals to T-mobile, so its smart phone users who get data will have Yahoo search by default." Yahoo! also has a deal with AT&T (NYSE:T). The partnerships give the carriers a piece of the search advertising from the mobile service.
Unfortunately, the new deal with T-Mobile will probably not work well. Being the default search engine does not mean much. Almost every person who has a cellphone knows how to set the mobile browser to use Google. In most cases, PCs come with a default browser, and if it is not Google a lot of consumers simply change the setting.
Google does not do well on the PC because it is set up as the first option by the manufacturer. It does well because it is the most effective search engine. People getting T-Mobile phones already know that.
The telecom business is definitely not recession-proof, as those that have followed the industry have recently realized, but it is not a field that is going to fade into the horizon any time soon either. Simply put, people need to communicate and the telecom business is poised to continue rolling with the new technology and bringing people what they need. If you see the value of telecom companies and agree that their future is, perhaps not golden, but definitely strong, then an investment in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is an excellent way to invest in the future of the telecom field without placing all of your trust in one specific company.
iShares S&P Global Telecommunications Sector ETF (NYSE: IXP) let's you own shares in some of the most noted and reliable telecom companies by simply purchasing shares of the one ETF. With IXP you'll find your investment basket is loaded with companies such as Amercia Movil, S.A.B. (NYSE: AMX) a fixed and wireless provider in Latin America, AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) a telecom provider for customers in the U.S. and worldwide, Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) a wireline and domestic wireless provider across the globe, as well as several other highly rated and well known telecom leaders.
iShares charges only a 0.48% fee to maintain IXP using computers rather than money managers. IXP also has typically paid about $1.50 per year in dividends -- IXP is down about (41%) this year so that's about a 4% yield -- and these companies seem to have the cash-generating ability to continue dividends.
Of the 44 stocks in IXP, the top 10 holdings total about 71% of all total assets. Take note of the global exposure you'll get by investing in the future of the telecom industry:
This is the first in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.
Over the years I have written numerous stories about eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), which I think has evolved from a must own stock of the new economy to just another company struggling to adapt to the rapidly shifting sand under its feet.
Having made money (bought after bubble burst) and lost money, owning a few remaining shares (sold most at $34), I have been pondering what I would do if I ran the company. My conclusion is that I might break up eBay; at a minimum, I would refocus it.
eBay has had spectacular growth in the past, though less now. It has made highly profitable acquisitions like Pay-Pal and terrible buys like money-losing Skype.
Here are some tidbits for all to cogitate on. In my view, Skype belongs in the hands of a communications company, not an online store. It has millions of users but eBay has not been able to monetize its growth. I think it's time to sell it. The telephone and wireless companies could make much better use of this asset by integrating it into complimentary service bundles.
Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q), a telecommunication concern which counts Verizon (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T) and Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) as esteemed colleagues, issued its Q3 numbers on Wednesday. What do they tell us? Well, for the most part, the numbers, and perhaps more importantly to some extent, the price action, tell us that we should stay away from this low single-digit stock.
Revenues went down roughly 2%. Earnings per diluted share, which came in at $0.09, took a huge dive of 93% on a GAAP basis, but this was driven by a significant tax benefit booked in Q3 2007. Looking at adjusted EBITDA, we see that the drop wasn't so large: Qwest posted $1.08 billion for this metric versus $1.15 billion in the year-ago period. Management didn't see fit to beat expectations, as the call was for $0.10 per share.
However, the company delivered $330 million in adjusted free cash flow, which is representative of a flat growth rate. Hey, the fact that free-cash generation didn't really go down is pretty cool in this case. Management promoted its shareholder-friendly initiatives of dividends and share buybacks in the release. Unfortunately, they aren't enough to bring me to the table where this stock is concerned.
Telecommunication concern Verizon (NYSE: VZ), whose competitors include AT&T (NYSE: T), Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), and Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q), reported earnings for the third quarter on Monday, and investors could not have been happier. As Wall Street continued its painful bearish slide, shareholders of Verizon were bragging about the 10% rise in the company's stock price. Question is, should you be a buyer of Verizon's stock at this point?
The numbers were decent enough. According to the press release, earnings per share were $0.66. Management only succeeded at matching expectations for Q3, according to this earnings-preview piece by Brent Archer. Honestly, I was surprised at the big pop in the stock yesterday. Considering how badly the markets have been doing, and the fact that we're facing a global recession, I would have figured on a more muted response to Verizon's numbers. After all, if we are facing a tough recession (and I'm fully on board with that sentiment), what's going to happen to the growth rate of the FiOS product? That product is doing well, as are other parts of the Verizon portfolio, but I wouldn't have been a buyer into the stock's strength today. And I say that without a doubt.
But, with Verizon, there is that great dividend yield and cash-flow growth. Operational cash flow from continuing operations was up almost 6%, and capital expenditures decreased. That's great news for dividend investors, as more free cash was left over. I think the market looked at Verizon as being oversold and decided to buy in. The company seemed to have a good Q3, and I think long-term investors will definitely do well with the stock; in fact, the press release mentioned that management saw fit to increase its dividend 7% during the quarter, expressing confidence in the company's current business models. But I believe even longer-term thinkers would do well to wait for a pullback in the share price before either initiating a new position or adding to an existing holding. I simply think there was too much excitement around the stock after its report.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Verizon (NYSE: VZ - option chain) shares are dropping today along with almost the whole market on plain old fear. VZ is expected to announce its third-quarter earnings release Monday before market open. Analysts are looking for a profit of 66 cents per share on revenue of $24.5 billion. Though VZ has reported at or above analysts' estimates in three of the past four quarters, the company is under pressure to match competitor AT&T's (NYSE: T) 2 million net gain in subscribers for the quarter that T reported this week. Option prices are inflated currently due to the record market volatility, and VZ's should be even more expensive ahead of earnings next week. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the kind of market we have been seeing, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on VZ.
This morning, VZ opened at $24.32. So far today the stock has hit a low of $24.26 and a high of $25.64. As of 12:15, VZ is trading at $25.28, down 96 cents (-3.7%). The chart for VZ looks bullish and S&P gives VZ a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bear-call credit spread above the $30 range.
U.S. stock futures were lower Wednesday morning, indicating stocks may have a second day of declines. As money markets worldwide continue improving, attention has shifted to corporate earnings and concerns are growing how a global slowdown would slow them. Asian markets closed sharply lower and European stocks tumbled at the open as well. Meanwhile, oil veered below $70 a barrel again despite a probably OPEC production cut on fears the U.S. economy is headed into a sever recession that would crimp demand for oil. Today weekly crude inventories will be released.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is one company that is bucking the earnings trend. The consumer electronics giant reported results after the close Tuesday, surprising the Street with higher earnings as all three product categories showed improvement. Specifically it sold far more iPhones than expected, actually outselling market-leading BlackBerry from Research in Motion Ltd (NASDAQ: RIMM). The company, known for always lowballing estimates, gave a weak outlook that didn't affect investors sentiment much. AAPL shares, which jumped nearly 13% in after-hours trading, are up nearly 8% this morning in pre-market trade. Analysts liked in general iPhone sales with Calyon Securities upgrading Apple to Buy from Add, and Goldman Sachs recommending investors to buy shares. Still, UBS has downgraded Apple from Buy to Neutral.
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO)'s show, on the other hand, was quite different than Apple's. While the stock is also up in pre-market action -- 2.7% (it was up 7% in after-hours trade Tuesday afternoon) -- it is mainly due to the severe cost cuts the internet giant has announced during the dusmal earnings release. As it was saying profit plunged 64%, Yahoo! also said it is redcucing its workforce by 10% or some 1,500 employees.
The Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone was supposed to help AT&T (NYSE: T) get wireless market share from its competition. That may be working, but AT&T is paying a price. As other carriers introduce new handsets of their own, AT&T has to keep significant subsidies for the Steve Jobs product.
According toReuters, "The derivative effect is lower profitability in wireless for all the carriers," said UBS analyst John Hodulik, adding that the iPhone is selling faster than he expected, which is actually bad for AT&T's profitability in the short term.
Counter-intuitive but true. The iPhone was supposed to be a big financial help to AT&T but no one seemed to think about margins. The question is whether the financial strain of marketing the handset will hurt is sales longer term. If it becomes too much of a burden on AT&T and overseas carriers who market the new 3G version, some might make the decision to go to competing products which are more profitable.
Apple's business philosophy, which has worked until now, is it introduce extraordinarily good products and charge a significant premium for them. Let the customer demand Apple's products and let the middle man whether that is the retailer or cell carrier bear the burden. Jobs ends up keeping what may be more than his fair share.
Pushing for most of the profit may work in an expanding economy, but if Apple wants to push that model in tough times, the company may find it has fewer friends.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
U.S. stock futures turned higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, in a coordinated move with other central banks, cut rates by half a point to 1.5%, in an effort to help credit markets and boost financial markets. Before the rate cut, futures were lower as Wall Street was about to join global markets in a world-wide plunge that saw the Nikkei down 9.4% and European main markets down 5-6%. On the economic front, August pending home sales released later today might crimp the mood somewhat.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicked off earnings season after the close Tuesday. The world's third-largest aluminum producer reported a 52% drop in third quarter profit as sharply lower aluminum prices and lower demand hurt results. AA shares are down 4% in pre-market trading.
American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) -- in what could only be described as unbelievable nerve, days after the $85 billion federal bailout loan, AIG spent $440,000 on a posh California retreat for its executives that included spa treatments and much more. Lawmakers were enraged over the thousands of dollars AIG spent on executives even as the company was staving off bankruptcy. It seems it is morally bankrupt. AIG stock is recovering 5.4% this morning after the rate cut.
AT&T Chairman / CEO Randall Stephenson said Tuesday that his company was unable to sell any commercial paper last week for terms longer than overnight.
"Your ability to plan for investment is obviously affected. You kind of don't know what your cost of capital six months from now is going to be," Stephenson told The AP. "We'll just be very guarded, cautious in terms of where we invest, very guarded and cautious in terms of hiring and capital spending. We'll see where this situation goes."
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Wednesday AT&T's (NYSE: T) challenges selling commercial paper underscore the nature of the financial crisis and the need for lawmakers / policy makers in Washington to act, "with all deliberate speed."
"When a cash-rich giant like AT&T, the corporate equivalent of an 850 Tri-merged FICO score, has trouble selling commercial paper longer than overnight, a bell should go off in your head," Wang said, adding that he does not own shares of any telecom company.
DirecTV (NYSE: DTV - option chain) shares are basically flat today, but with today's market that is great performance. The company announced a deal Friday after the close that DTV and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) will launch a co-branded satellite television service that will be available to AT&T customers beginning after T's current deal with Dish Network (NASDAQ: DISH) expires early next year. Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but this is a big move for the smaller company and DISH is down more than 13% currently. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on DTV.
DTV opened this morning at $26.05. So far today the stock has hit a low of $26.05 and a high of $27.30. As of 12:25, DTV is trading at $26.54, down one cent (-0.04%). The chart for DTV looks neutral and S&P gives DTV a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an November bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just eight weeks as long as DTV is above $22.50 at November expiration. Direct TV would have to fall by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
DTV hasn't been below $22.50 since February and has shown support around $24.50 recently.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in DTV nor DISH, but he does control a bullish hedged position on T.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says without the Paulson plan, every component is in trouble. Let's take a look.
Without the Paulson plan, or if the plan is so watered down and delayed, I have been saying all bets are off and we could be in for a huge swoon. How huge?
I like to sit down and noodle on the actual components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to give you a real sense of what can go wrong. And there is so much going wrong. The credit markets are vanishing, the earnings are vanishing and the only hope is a plan that ignites credit markets, forces money off the sidelines and gets this economy and the worldwide economy moving again.
Not long ago, I postulated that this market is literally repealing all of the moves since the Brazil-Russia-India-China emergence that gave us better markets to sell into than just the U.S. With the collapse of Chinese growth -- they have simply ceased to be importers since the summer -- the inflation in India, the war in Russia and a U.S.-led slowdown in Brazil (although that remains a robust market) BRIC is more like having a brick around your neck than a wind at your back.
Meanwhile, the peak in energy and the collapse of the financial system have left both of those groups in disarray with valuations simply too difficult to pin down, so you retreat to worst-case scenarios where you can at least find some terra firma -- mainly where stocks were last time things were this bad.
"AT&T, a holding in our income portfolio, has had a tough 2008 so far. Its performance has been good in a price-sensitive business environment, despite evidence of greater pressure than expected from both the slowing economy and increased wireless competition.
"So why would anyone consider a phone company given the unfavorable economics? Earnings estimates for AT&T have been cut for the next couple of years due primarily to assumptions of sluggish economic growth in the U.S.
"The answer is that those developments are already reflected in the stock price. The shares now trade at a big discount to the S&P 500 despite similar long-term earnings growth potential of 8-10%. That growth will come particularly from data usage over mobile phones.
"The original Apple iPhone contract went to AT&T and there has been a burst of new product offerings of other so-called 'smart phones,' which are very data intensive. This will drive data usage rates considerably in the next five years.
"What's more, AT&T now pays a rich dividend yield of 5%, more than double the S&P 500. We like the stock for conservative, buy-and-hold income investors."
Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
When Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC announced that T-Mobile USA would be the first wireless company to carry a wireless smartphone running Google's hyped Android operating system, those who have refused the iPhone and were fervent Google supporters finally had a reason to cheer. There have been several unknowns, with the most important one being a launch price.
This may have just been cleared up. CrunchGear is reporting that the HTC/Google "Dream" Android-based smartphone will sell for $200 when released on T-Mobile USA sometime in October, or more precisely for $199 as the WSJ reports today. This is identical to the pricing of the iPhone 3G on AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T), so if there are any doubts Google and T-Mobile are squaring up to compete head-to-head with Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and AT&T, those have been nicely squashed.
Sprint Nextel Corp.'s (NYSE: S) first attempt to compete with a unit very much like the iPhone was the Samsung Instinct. That particular phone, which was released in June, has quickly become Sprint's best cellphone seller in over two years. Can the HTC Dream Android-powered phone give T-Mobile USA a lift like this? Both Google and T-Mobile USA hope so, although Apple iPhone 3G sales certainly are not slowing down. But there are folks who will never want to be involved with AT&T at all (even with the iPhone 3G exclusivity), so having choices outside the Apple/AT&T world could spell immediate success continuation for Sprint Nextel and soon for T-Mobile USA.
With Yahoo, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) stock in the dumper, the CEO spot looking for a newcomer and musings about the future of the company underway, perhaps there is a small bright light for the internet pioneer. Wireless provider T-Mobile will use Yahoo!'s mobile search as the default on all its phones' mobile web browsers.
U.S. stock futures were lower Wednesday morning, indicating stocks may have a second day of declines. As money markets worldwide continue improving, attention has shifted to corporate earnings and concerns are growing how a global slowdown would slow them. 
U.S. stock futures turned higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, in a coordinated move with other central banks, 
When 
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