It should surprise no one that oil stocks have taken the lead in the first quarter, while financial stocks -- after a good two-year run -- have been tamed. This is how things have shaped up through the first quarter for my 2011 stock picks. (For a look at my original picks, see here: part 1, part 2, and part 3.)

Normally, if I said a business was underwater, investors would think the worst. Actually, in the summer Noble Corp (NE) was underwater -- and investors were not impressed. However, this was a great buying opportunity, and although the company is still underwater, it is also a market leader among my stock picks and the overall market -- even among oil industry players. With its fleet of 69 offshore drilling rigs, Noble stands tall.

"This is a time for defensive measures, and one defensive stock idea is Telefonica (TEF); based in Madrid, Spain, Telefonica is a world telecom leader, with more than 280 million customers in 25 countries," notes Mark Skousen.

The editor of Forecasts & Strategies explains, "The company has a particular emphasis on Latin America. Telefonica offers landlines, cell phones and services, network leasing, cable and satellite television, and broadband services. It also is expanding rapidly in Asia in a partnership with China Unicom.

Venezuela is broken and Libya is on fire. The Chavez government is incompetent and the Gaddafi regime may be just days away from collapse as chaos fills the streets. Rumors of Gaddafi escaping to Venezuela are unfounded. However, if two men ever deserved each other, these two fit the bill.

Chavez, in all his economic wisdom has brought on over 28% inflation and counting in addition to the Currency Market Takeover Spurs Lines for Dollars. All this wonderful news led me to search for Venezuelan ADR's (American Depository Receipts) in case I wanted to follow the market there, and make a contrarian play, or if I really wanted to get wild short something.

We are only one month into the new year and there have not been many dull moments. Games are going on in the Middle East and they are not the friendly kind. In Egypt a million plus protesters are playing a game of chicken with the Mubarak government demanding he step down from his 32-year-old reign as perpetual president.

This is not radical Islam fundamentalists; it is even more fundamental. The people want to improve their daily lives in a meaningful way. Education, infrastructure, clean water and clean streets. Speaking of infrastructure and getting back to the less dramatic but still important great stock picks Telefonica (TEF) and General Electric (GE) were the big winners so far bouncing over 10% in January.

"Telefonica SA (TEF) is a member of our model portfolio; it meets 100% of the criteria we use in our James P. O'Shanghnessy growth and value model," notes John Reese.

The editor of Validea explains, "The company operates in three business areas: Telefonica Spain, Telefonica Latin America and Telefonica Europe."

He continues, "The O'Shanghnessy approach -- called the Cornerstone Value Strategy -- looks for large, well known companies whose market cap is greater than $1 billion.

I have already gone on record this year saying that financial companies and insurance stocks are going to continue to rebound. In my previous two posts Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 and Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9, I included several financial institutions. Today I add an insurance company.

The industry got whacked hard for many reasons. For one, it makes a significant amount of profit by investing its float, and like every other investor, the industry lost a pile of money in the financial crisis. It was embroiled more directly than some industries, as several insurers are affiliated with banks. Finally the housing crisis meant disruption to payment streams by homeowners who were delinquent on more than their mortgages.

Here are the next four of my 2011 picks. I am behind schedule, after publishing the first 5 earlier in the week (see: Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11). This year instead of starting completely anew, I am adjusting my 2010 picks. There is no sense in abandoning good ideas just because the calendar turned a page.

You will actually find support of running themes I have been writing about over the past few months. One of these is the idea of making a contrarian investment in a basket of stocks that have been both scalded and scolded in the headlines. Six stocks were included in such a group that I called the "toxic stocks" (see: Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update #3 -- BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG).

Can you hear me now? Well listen closely, Verizon Communications (VZ) is going to get a bounce from the Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone in 2011. Nothing you don't already know. Is there a more sure thing in the coming year? Long term it will fade some, but in 2011 the pent up demand has to have a positive impact.

Communications: The telephone companies everywhere are going to have a good year. Verizon is a great stock for Roth IRA's, paying a 5.41% yield. The dilution of the iPhone market may hurt AT&T, Inc. (T) some, as VZ is helped, but it too is a good long term hold and pays an even higher yield at 5.76%.

If you want to diversify internationally there are multiple good choices and they pay even higher yields.

Could a stock that you made 1,100% on still have room to run? Yes, it is possible. In particular if it had a near death experience as a penny stock for a while.

That is the case with Newcastle Investments (NCT), the CMBS lender and real estate investment company that reached a recent high of $7.10 and has settled back down, most recently hovering between $6.70 to $7.00. It closed Thursday December 23 at $6.71.

What a terrible message for the holiday season, with consumers swooping up bargains, lines at the Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Store, the stock market only going up, and a majority of economic prognosticators simply glowing at the prospects for 2011. Perhaps it is contrarians that should follow the "don't ask, don't tell" military rule just signed out of existence by president Obama today.

Unfortunately I can't help myself. I have to ask, I have to tell. When I see everyone get too giddy, I start to put on the breaks and slow down. It is not that I wish unhappiness upon people. I just want them to refrain from being lemmings. Some percentage of the market's upswing is short covering, and some can be attributed to momentum investors and market timers (big mistake) but that is 100% speculation and zero percent investing.

The economic news out of Europe has strengthened the dollar and recast doubt on the euro. The demise of the Irish "domino" after the bailout of the Greek domino has formed clouds over the Portuguese and Spanish dominoes.

As fear grows, the European Bank is trying to build a buttress to hold up the dominoes. However, from the perspective of the Greek and Irish people the prescribed austerity measures employed is just foreign oppression and will not help their employment levels.

What this means to most investors is to run for the hills. What it means to this investor is watch closely for buying opportunities because bargains will be created by the fear -- for sure!

It certainly is presumptuous, perhaps even self serving of me to assume the market is going higher in the face of so much uncertainty.

The reason I hold this belief is that so much money is sitting on the sidelines and much of it is getting restless. It's one thing for those on a fixed income to suffer because the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates so low, but it is quite another thing to expect $2 trillion dollars of corporate cash to want to live like senior citizens. That cash is a bigger drag on earnings with each passing day.

In the midst of deep fear and melodramatic headlines in May, I dove into the market suggesting investors take a hard look at three companies that would survive anything the world could throw at them.

There are often profits to be made from the headlines as fear and greed drive the market. You must have read umpteen times in journals worldwide "my pal Warren's" trumpeting smart investors to buy on fear. Well, last may Novartis AG ADS (NVS), Telefonica SA (TEF) and Unilever ADR (UL) were on sale as fear ruled the day. So let's see how these ideas worked out.

"Just four months ago, Europe was in an awful tailspin; but buying European stocks is exactly what I recommended," says Lou Basenese.

The contributing editor to Investment U explains, "Why? Because I'm a contrarian investor! And one of my favorite beaten-down stocks is Telefonica (TEF), the biggest telephone company in Spain.

"When the investing herd moves in unison, I always look for a reason to do the opposite. As long as the fundamentals warrant it, of course.

The most common question I get from friends, family, business associates and, well, everyone is -- Do you expect a double-dip recession? My answer is an unequivocal "No!"

This does not mean that I think we are going to experience a dramatic improvement in the economy. We are not. Many of my colleagues seem to oppose my view, so it is not without some trepidation that I take this stand. However, I see the glass half full. My view is that others are overly influenced by "group-think" and the calls of doom.

I do think that we are currently adrift in uncharted waters and we may have a faulty rudder, too. The biggest fear I have is that everyone jabbering about another deep recession may actually cause one.

The following supports why I feel, from what we know, that we are not destined for a double-dip recession: