I have been involved in the investment industry for almost 29 years. The first 13 I spent with Dean Witter Reynolds (now Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)) and the last 16 years as a senior partner with two investment banking-research boutique firms. I have worked with over 150 stock research analysts just on the sell-side and another 200 plus on the buy side. Categorically, the title research analyst does not make an analyst a rocket scientist. There are a few myths that need to be explored and more importantly, explained.

There are two and only two types of analysts in the stock research world. 1) those that "get it" and are ahead of their particular industry and can pretty accurately predict what is "going to happen" within the sector they follow, and 2) analysts that are strictly reporters of the news affecting their sectors and do not think outside the box.

Case in point: Stewart Barry of ThinkEquity Partners (my alma mater) has been absolutely brilliant in the internet services sector. Forward thinking, cutting edge research and the ability to separate the news from the noise. Stewart nailed the strong possibilities of Aquantive (NASDAQ: AQNT) and 24/7 Real Media (NASDAQ: TFSM) being acquired. Both are getting acquired. What Stewart nailed wasn't the rumor mill about these two -- he was dead-right on the fundamental issues affecting Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and how AQNT, TFSM, and DoubleClick could fill those needs. Stewart Barry is an all-star analyst because he is ahead of the curve and ahead of his peer group. Stewart has reiterated his buy rating on ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) not because it may be acquired, but because the basic fundamentals are superior and the company's growth rate is accelerating.

Continue reading Research Analysts: Some great and some lousy

Research Analysts: Some great and some lousy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 22 May 2007 18:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

ValueClick gets even more value originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 21 May 2007 14:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Insider's insight into 24/7 Real Media sale originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 18 May 2007 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is paying an 85% premium to buy online advertising firm aQuantive Inc. (NASDAQ: AQNT). Yes, that's 85%. It is the price for being late to the dance.

After missing out on both DoubleClick and 24/7 Real Media (NASDAQ: TFSM), Microsoft had few options left if it wanted a presence in the internet advertising brokerage business -- the intersection where markets buy ads and place them on websites. The companies in this business have huge amounts of data on internet use patterns.

So, Microsoft will pay about $6 billion for a company that had $143 million in revenue last quarter and an operating profit of $20 million. Doesn't Steve Ballmer keeps saying he won't over pay for anything? Before the DoubleClick deal with Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), aQuantive sold below $30, so the real premium can actually be viewed as well over 100%.

Being so late, and paying so much is a huge strategic blunder, but it is the price for waiting

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Microsoft pays too much for aQuantive originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 18 May 2007 09:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Banc of America believes ValueClick Inc (NASDAQ: VCLK) is well-positioned for continued strong secular online ad growth and initiated shares with a Buy rating and $35 target.

• Lehman is positive on Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) valuation and earnings growth, starting shares with an Overweight rating and $26.50 target.

• Banc of America believes 24/7 Real Media's (NASDAQ: TFSM) valuation is full at current levels and started shares with a Neutral rating and $12 target.

• RBC believes shares of Knology (NASDAQ: KNOL) are fairly-valued and would wait for a pullback, initiating shares with a Sector Perform rating.

• ThinkEquity started Allos Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ALTH) with a Buy rating and expects significant news flow data on PDX in 2007-2008. In addition, the firm expects to hear an update on enrollment from the PROPEL study, which could be ahead of expectations, and Phase I data in NSCLC in the fall...

• Goldman resumed coverage with Mylan Laboratories (NYSE: MYL) and Exco Resources, Inc (XCO) with Neutral ratings.

• Merrill Lynch resumed coverage of News Corp (NYSE: NWS) with a Buy rating.

• Lehman started Input/Output, Inc (NYSE: IO) With an Overweight rating and $18 target.

• Needham started Vasco Data Security International, Inc (NASDAQ: VDSI) with a Hold rating.

Analyst initiations 5-17-07: DAL, NWS, TFSM and VCLK originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 May 2007 11:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Ad agency conglomerate WPP Group Plc. (NASDAQ: WPPGY) bought 24/7 Real Media (NASDAQ: TFSM) for $649 million this morning. The price was $11.75, not much of a premium over where the shares are but they have run up on rumors. In early April, the stock was at $.8.30. But, when Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) bought DoubleClick, the market assumed that 24/7, a company in the same industry, would not remain independent.

What is interesting is that an ad agency bought the company, and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) or Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) did not end up with the prize. The intersection between serving ads for marketing clients on major websites yields all kinds of rich data about the habits of internet users. Google appeared to get a leg up in that market with its purchase of DoubleClick.

But, ad agencies are in trouble. Auction systems from companies like Google are taking the buying power for everything from the internet to newspapers to radio and putting it in the hands of auction software.

Revenue at large agency companies is under siege. WPP's stock has done as well as the S&P over the last five years, but Wall Streeet's concern is whether it can keep that up if ad-buying moves elsewhere.

Now, WPP may have put some of those fears to rest.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

24/7 Real Media finally gets bought originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 May 2007 08:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

M

• Banc of America downgraded shares of Dendreon Corp (NASDAQ: DNDN) to Sell from Neutral following the FDA's request for additional clinical data for Provenge.

• HSBC cut Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Underweight from Neutral after the second quarter miss.

• BMO Capital downgraded Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RTP) to Underperform from Market Perform based on valuation.

• El Paso Corp (NYSE: EP) was cut to Sell from Buy at Matrix after the company's weak operating performance.

• Merriman downgraded shares of Oplink Communications (NASDAQ: OPLK) to Sell from Neutral based on concerns over the OCP acquisitions and inventory...

• 24/7 Real Media, Inc (NASDAQ: TFSM) was cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies.

• Credit Suisse downgraded shares of RadioShack Corp (NYSE: RSH) to Neutral from Outperform.

• Bear Stearns cut Harman International Industries (NYSE: HAR) to Peer Perform from Outperform.

• Piper Jaffray downgraded shares of Cache, Inc (NASDAQ: CACH) to Market Perform from Outperform.

• Restoration Hardware, Inc (NASDAQ: RSTO) was cut at Caris to Average from Above Average.

Analyst downgrades 5-10-07: CACH, RSH, RTP and WFMI originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 May 2007 11:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

24/7 Real Media

24/7 Media posts loss; Microsoft still interested? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 May 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has its own answer to the Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) purchase of ad auction business Right Media and Google Inc.'s (NASDAQ: GOOG) acquisition of ad serving giant Doubleclick. The world's largest software company is going after a different platform -- the cell phone.

Microsoft today announced that it is buying ScreenTonic. The Paris-based company places and manages ads on wireless handsets. As the market for placing and brokering ads on the PC-based Internet gets more crowded, Microsoft is probably smart to look to the next platform that could see rapid ad growth.

The software company told Reuters: "The acquisition of ScreenTonic will be part of our long-term strategy to deliver ad experiences that map to the (mobile Internet)," said Steve Berkowitz, senior vice president at Microsoft's online services group.

Microsoft efforts to build a web presence with MSN and a search platform have been an embarrassing failure. MSFT's search share runs around 12%, about half Yahoo!'s. There are still rumors that the company could buy 24/7 RealMedia (NASDAQ: TFSM) to get into the mainstream ad brokerage business.

But with Google owning the search market, and Doubleclick being in second place, at best, it may not suit Microsoft. So it may be on to greener pastures.

Microsoft buys ScreenTonic for mobile ads originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 May 2007 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Microsoft eyes ad sales market, 24/7 Media originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 May 2007 10:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Barron Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" column reported that Charles R. Schwab sold 800K shares of Charles Schwab Corporation (NASDAQ: SCHW) for nearly $16M this past Friday.
• The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that the human rights organization Human Rights Watch has released a report alleging that Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) spied on unions and violated other federal labor laws.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that Carl Icahn took out a full page ad to get the attention of Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT) shareholders who will vote on board members at Monday's company annual meeting.
• The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) Pictures Entertainment has formed a new division for the production of international films.

• According to a New York Post exclusive, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) has emerged as a contender to buy Internet ad company 24/7 Real Media Inc (NASDAQ: TFSM), along with ad firm WPP Group (NASDAQ: WPPGY).

Newspaper wrap-up 4-30-07: Microsoft looking at 24/7 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 May 2007 09:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.