At least one of my stocks is doing pretty well in this terrible, depressing market environment. Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) hit a new 52-week high of $36.84 on Tuesday. It closed a little below that, but it was a great, high-volume day for the stock, one that saw the shares rise almost 5%.
Yes, with the Dow Jones index shedding 100 points, with every other stock in my portfolio in the red, including MFA (NYSE: MFA), which closed down to $6.66 -- the number of the beast, my friends -- Activision not only held its own, but it powered higher. Perhaps it's due to the new Guitar Hero game coming out for the DS. Perhaps there's a new wave of excitement over the merger now that investors are receiving their documents (I just got mine the other day, a big book full of wonderful information about the Activision/Vivendi agreement). No matter, though, it was Activision's day, since competitors Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) were down Tuesday, and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) closed up only four measly pennies.
I love this price action, and I think it might be predicting a prosperous Q4 holiday season for the company, which will eventually be called Activision Blizzard after the merger. I'm also hoping the action indicates that the stock will be reasonably stable during the summer, which I think is going to be rough on the markets as oil and inflation headlines dominate the tape.
Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) issued Q4 and full-year numbers on Tuesday. The competitor of Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) reported adjusted fourth-quarter revenues of $919 million, which was good for a 50% increase. Earnings per diluted share were $0.09 on an adjusted basis, also representing a 50% jump. For the full year, adjusted revenues jumped 30% to $4 billion and earnings per diluted share rose 36% to $1.06. Not too bad.
EA, according to Briefing.com, also beat Wall Street's expectations by quite a bit. EA was forecast to only break-even on a non-GAAP basis, so the difference was a nice $0.09. In terms of operational cash flow, EA increased the metric by 33% during the fourth quarter, but for the full year, operational cash flow decreased 15%. Ah, such is life, I guess. Nevertheless, EA produced 27 titles that sold over a million units this year -- three more than in the previous year. Fifteen of its titles sold over 2 million units -- five more than the last fiscal period. Titles such as Army of Two and Rock Band, as well as various sports franchises, drove the results.
Things sound pretty good, don't they? EA is definitely a major force on the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platforms. But EA has had some challenges during this console cycle, and there is the perception that it needs a major merger to combat the threat posed by the Activision and Vivendi Games transaction. And let's not forget that Activision is on fire all on its own. That's what the whole attempted takeover of Take-Two is all about.
THQ's (NASDAQ: THQI) Q4 results were not good at all. Revenues were up over 8% to $187 million, but the software publisher lost an adjusted $0.37 per diluted share from continuing operations. Last year at this time, THQ generated positive adjusted net income of $0.13 per diluted share from continuing operations. The full fiscal year was no better -- revenues were basically flat at $1 billion. The company lost an adjusted $0.23 per diluted share from continuing operations during the year compared to an adjusted profit of $1.20 per diluted share from continuing operations in 2007.
This publisher is no Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) or Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) right now. Its slate is performing poorly, and the company's stock is likewise in the dumps. But what about the future? A few years back, THQ wasn't a bad investment decision. I have a feeling that THQ will rebound as the current console cycle continues its forward path, especially when further price cuts in hardware make their way to market.
THQ, however, needs to get its slate back on track, and to really go after the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 players. It seems to be doing OK with the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platform in terms of revenue mix. Perhaps the deal struck with DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) for a video game based on the animation company's 2010 feature MasterMind will help.
Nevertheless, there is nothing exciting in the earnings release, nothing that makes me think that THQ is out of the dark woods yet. Again, though, I would expect the publisher's stock to rebound in the future. Question is, how patient will investors be?
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
I really want to turn bullish on Midway Games Inc. (NYSE: MWY), but there's no way I can do that right now. The company's stock is below $3 a share, and it's there for a reason. But, let's first look at a couple positives from the software publisher's latest earnings release. Net revenues shot up 170% to $29.9 million in Q1; that beat expectations, according to Briefing.com. And the net loss per share also beat expectations by a penny -- it came in at $0.29 per diluted share on an adjusted analysis.
But, that net loss is worse than the previous year's net loss of $0.20 per diluted share, also adjusted. Like I say, someday I want to report that Midway has turned the corner and is a buy. I simply can't do that, even though I recently bought the publisher's catalog title Rampage: Total Destruction for the Nintendo Gamecube and am having a great time with it -- guess it goes to show that you can't always judge a company's stock by the fact that you enjoy its products. One thing that Midway needs to do is perhaps seek some synergy from Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA)'s MTV and Nickelodeon channels. Sumner Redstone is, after all, the controlling shareholder of Midway. Granted, THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI) deals with the Nickelodeon characters at the moment, but in the future, Redstone needs to figure out a way to use his media assets to promote Midway and perhaps funnel some licensing deals to the publisher. MTV is certainly doing well with its own video-game ambitions via Rock Band, which is sold by Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS).
One thing I must point out is that, since my last article about Midway, the stock is up. This was mentioned to me by a reader. So, in objective trading terms, if you went against my opinion, you would have made money, no question. However, I have to stick to my guns and say that I personally wouldn't play the volatility in Midway's shares. Yes, you could luck out with it, maybe Redstone will come along one day and buy out the remaining shares at a big premium (doubtful, at least the big-premium part). I wouldn't want to speculate on such an outcome; I am still content with my Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares as a way to play video-game investing.
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) is not casual when it comes to casual gaming. What is casual gaming, you ask? It is a genre of videogaming for people who don't want to learn a bunch of button combos for a complex first-person shooter or don't possess the desire to spend fifty hours winding their way through a vast role-playing universe. And it just might be an important avenue of growth for the videogame industry, since it opens up new markets beyond the hardcore gamer. Publishers such as Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) know that casual-gaming strategies are important these days, as do console makers Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Sony (NYSE: SNE). Heck, Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) overall strategy is arguably completely casual in nature, considering the appeal of the Wii.
THQ announced the other day that it would buy Elephant Entertainment and enter into a publishing deal with Oberon Media. Both of these companies are purveyors of casual-gaming entertainment and they are meant to broaden the scope of THQ's offerings in this area. Expectations are for casual games to grow significantly over time.
It may be a smart thing for THQ to grow its casual-gaming business, but it needs to focus right now mostly on getting its main pipeline back in order. Recent delays for certain titles, as well as sagging sales of games that were supposed to do well, have caused THQ's stock to fall; in fact, THQ's recent quarter was kind of bad, in my opinion. So, yes, go after the casual market -- but remember the less-than-casual and hardcore players as well, as they are major drivers for the success of a gaming slate.
Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.
Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) can rock its shareholders just as hard as a blood-spitting Gene Simmons at a Kiss concert. And we all know why -- the Guitar Hero franchise is, simply put, one of the most popular videogames out there, and it is available for all the major console systems from Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT) and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY). It's also a pain in the neck for other publishers such as Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), since they have to put up with the franchise's dominating power. But guess what, the inevitable has come to pass -- Activision is being accused of patent infringement!
Yes, you can't be very popular, you can't rake in millions and millions of dollars in profit for shareholders and expect to get away unscathed. Gibson Guitar, according to this Associated Press piece, believes Guitar Hero infringes on a patent it holds for a rock-concert simulator. The patent apparently goes back to 1999 and it contains a description for a system that uses a 3-D headset in conjunction with a musical playback. Activision decided to file a suit to get a court decision declaring that it is not infringing on any existing patent.
Midway Games (NYSE: MWY), a competitor of videogame publishers such as Activision (NYSE: ATVI), Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), and Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO), reported earnings on Thursday for the fourth quarter. They weren't good. Net revenues went down by 20%, and the loss widened to 33 cents per share versus a loss of 2 cents per share in the year-ago period. For the full year, net revenues declined 5%, and the loss widened to $1.07 per share versus a loss of 86 cents per share in 2006. Even on an adjusted basis, the losses were larger than before.
I've been following Midway for a long time, and I have to say that I just don't think the publisher's stock is worth anyone's time right now. Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) all have their new consoles out -- PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, and Wii, respectively -- so Midway, if it were executing properly, should have been able to take advantage of them. It hasn't.
I see nothing in the release that indicates a positive catalyst is on the horizon for Midway and/or its stock. It's a cool publisher with some fun games, but I won't be buying its thesis -- if there is one -- anytime soon. I'll stick with my Activision shares, and I'd urge others to look at an EA, or even a THQ, for possible value.
Disclosure: Steven Mallas own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.
Steven Spielberg is, let's face it, one of the most creative guys on the planet, and he's been responsible for some of my most treasured memories at the local multiplex -- who didn't love watching Indiana Jones ride off into the sunset at the conclusion of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade or viewing couch-jumping Tom Cruise race through a futuristic setting to prove his innocence in Minority Report? The guy is a genius; he also loves videogames. And Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) has teamed up with him to develop entertainment software in a bid to differentiate its lineup from the competitive likes of Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) and Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO).
I just read the press release announcing the game he helped create for the Nintendo Wii. It's due out this summer, and it's called BOOM BLOX. I have to be honest and say that I'm not sure exactly what to expect. It has something to do with puzzle combinations, building block structures up and then knocking them down, crazy characters like monkeys who throw baseballs around for one reason or another, etc. Oh, and there are chickens and haunted places, and there are hundreds of levels. Sounds confusing?
I'm confused, but I'm sure if I do a little Googling, I can figure out what's up with this title. The Nintendo Wii is pretty hot right now, as if I had to tell you, and I think a game with the Spielberg brand may sell well for EA. Spielberg is due to deliver two more games for EA. There's no guarantee they'll move copies just because he's involved in their development, but EA having access to his intellectual artistry certainly can't hurt. The publisher will definitely have to do some savvy marketing to ensure that not-with-it folks like myself know exactly what to expect from this game -- the press release claims I'll be addicted, and who's to say I won't be?
Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns Activision and Take-Two, and is looking at a possible buy of Nintendo after this post. Believe it or not, he actually owns the E.T. game for the Atari 2600 (how old-school is that).
Man, I remember loving THQ (NASDAQ: THQI). For a while, the company and stock were doing well; I recall watching it go from $20 a stub to $36 in recent times. But you know the old adage -- what goes up, must -- or, may, at least, when it comes to stocks -- come down. And down THQ came. Its recent quarter shows just how low things have gotten.
In the video game publisher's latest quarter, net revenue increased 7% to about $510 million. Kind of disappointing for a video game concern to post a top-line increase in the single digits for a holiday quarter that is supposed to be in the thick of the new console cycle. After all, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, and the juggernaut known as the Nintendo Wii are all stoking the flames of gamer interest. But the real disappointment can be found in the horrible bottom-line performance. Yes, even though THQ is the home to SpongeBob SquarePants, not even that wily, sweet, pineapple-dwelling creature could offset increased costs and charges related to canceled games (say good-bye to the Juiced and Stuntman franchises) to save THQ from posting a whopping 76% drop in diluted income from continuing operations: 21 cents per share versus 88 cents a year earlier.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, General Motors and Anglo American were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) was downgraded to Reduce from Buy at WestLB and to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse following the company's Q3 profit warning.
WestLB downgraded shares of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Reduce from Hold following Ericsson's profit warning, as they believe Alcatel-Lucent's mobile business will face top-line and margin issues.
Bear Stearns downgraded shares of General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) to Underperform from Peer Perform after learning that benefits from the new union contract will be lower than expected in 2008 and 2009. The broker recommends swapping into Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F).
HSBC downgraded shares of Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Neutral from Overweight on valuation. Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Anglo to Equal Weight from Overweight also on valuation, as they see better value elsewhere in the sector.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Entertainment software stocks, Luxottica and Hansen Medical were today's noteworthy initiations:
Citigroup initiated Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) with Buy ratings and targets of $75 and $29, respectively; the firm initiated Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) and THQ Inc (NASDAQ: THQI) with Hold ratings and targets of $23 and $34, respectively.
Citigroup also started shares of Luxottica Group (NYSE: LUX) with a Buy rating. The firm believes the company can maintain its dominant market position given its house brands portfolio and early expansion into emerging markets.
Merriman started shares of Hansen Medical (NASDAQ: HNSN) with a Buy rating and thinks the company's Sensei System could radically change the landscape of catheter based surgery. The firm believes the stock can trade to the $34-$41 range in 12-18 months.
WuXi Pharmatech (NYSE: WX) was started with a Hold rating and $29 target at Jefferies on valuation. JP Morgan started shares with a Neutral rating and Credit Suisse initiated shares with an Outperform rating.
Myriad Genetics Inc (NASDAQ: MYGN) was started with a Hold rating and $50 target at Citigroup, as the firm is cautious on the Phase III Flurizan results and does not recommend putting new money here at these levels.
Citigroup also initiated shares of Cypress Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ: CYPB) with a Buy rating and $22 target as the firm believes Milnacipran has sufficient database for approval and is capable of gaining meaningful market share as firstline therapy.
Knology Inc (NASDAQ: KNOL) was initiated with a Buy rating and $25 target at BWS Financial, as the firm believes the company's growth potential is greater than other cable companies through a business plan that allows it to have operations in all regions of the U.S.
Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) implied volatility flat at 40. ATVI, a developer, publisher and distributor of interactive entertainment, is recently down .36 to $18.64. ATVI over all option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.
Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) option implied volatility of 35 above 26-week average of 32. ERTS, the world's leading interactive entertainment software company, is recently down .68 to $51.88. ERTS over all option implied volatility of 35 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
THQ Inc. (NYSE: THQI) option implied volatility flat at 37. THQI, a developer & publisher of interactive entertainment software, is recently down .77 cents to $28.57. THQI over all option implied volatility of 37 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO) implied volatility of 68 above 26-week average of 53. TTWO, an interactive entertainment software game developer, is recently up .28 cents to $15.01. Activist shareholders have been involved in TTWO over the last ten-months. TTWO is expected to report EPS soon. TTWO over all option implied volatility of 68 is above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
GameStop (NYSE: GME) implied volatility Elevated; GME near record High. GME, a video game and entertainment software retailer, is recently down $1.95 to $46.78. GME over all option implied volatility of 42 is above its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.