Analyst Upgrades

• Philip Morris (PM) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Peet's Coffee (PEET) to neutral from sell at Janney Capital.
• Cephalon (CEPH) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• StoneMor Partners (STON) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Tibco (TIBX) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Apollo Group (APOL) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.

Tibco Software (TIBX) has carried the concept of social networking to business, as reported in Investor's.com. Tibco's software, dubbed Tibbr, ties together all the departments in real time. This give management and employees a "heads up" on business activity as it happens. For example, at MGM Resorts (MGM), when a big spender walks in the casino, the system immediately alerts the entire staff to treat the customer like he's a king.

Tibco's chief, Vivek Ranadive, said: "It's like a nervous system that works in real time and responds in real time." It allows a company to capture the right information at the right time and act on it preemptively for a competitive advantage.

"With the uber-ambitious Ellison and Hurd now paired, I think the safe bet is we're going so see Oracle (ORCL) make some major moves (yes, probably more than one major acquisition)," suggests tech sector expert Paul McWilliams.

The editor of Next Inning explains, "After all, even without Hurd at his side, Oracle founder, Larry Ellison has been an aggressive buyer and now with Hurd on board I think the appetite could become ravenous.

"I think its probably a good idea to start thinking about what Oracle might do next.

Option traders appear to be setting up for a bullish move on Rehabcare Group Inc. (RHB). Traders plowed into 2,192 new call option contracts -- 18.9 times the average volume -- on the stock on Tuesday. And we know that traders were eager to get into this trade because 100% of the trades came in on the ask price.

Rehabcare is sitting just above support at $16. The stock closed Tuesday at $16.56, up 23.16% during the past month.

Analyst Upgrades

• BMO Capital upgraded Noble Energy (NE) to outperform from market perform and raised its target to $85 from $78. The firm upgraded Noble based on Niobrara field potential and record-breaking reserve potential at the Leviathan prospect.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Raytheon (RTN) to outperform from market perform based on relative valuation, strong balance sheet and International sales exposure.
• ThinkEquity upgraded Cerner (CERN) to buy from hold based on valuation and EMR momentum. The firm raised its price target on shares to $86 from $80.
• Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) was upgraded to buy from hold at Societe Generale.
• Cavium Networks (CAVM) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• CSG Systems (CSGS) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.

Option traders appear to be setting up for a bullish move on CA Technologies (CA). Traders plowed into 4,799 new call option contracts -- 13.87 times the average volume -- on the stock on Thursday. And we know that traders were eager to get into this trade because 98% of the trades came in on the "ask" price.

CA Technologies closed Thursday at $18.13. The stock has dropped 7.64% during the past month, but it is currently sitting at support just above $18.

Even in a holiday shortened week so close to the end of the calendar year, there are still some earnings reports dribbling in. Question is, will any of the companies reporting quarterly results this week offer up a gift for investors?

Apropos of the season, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters have high expectations for American Greetings Corp.'s (AM) fiscal third quarter 2010 earnings. The nation's second largest provider of greeting cards announced record second quarter results and declared a quarterly dividend during the three months that ended in November. American Greetings is expected to report that earnings rose 43.9% from a year ago to $0.66 per share. Revenue for the quarter is expected to total $445.4 million, or 1.9% lower than a year ago. So far, the full-year forecast is for its profit to more than double to $2.00 per share while revenue falls 5.6% from a year ago to $1.6 billion. This Cleveland-based company creamed earnings estimates in the past two quarters.

Tibco Software (NASDAQ: TIBX - option chain) shares are rising today on reports from Swiss newspaper NZZ am Sonntag that SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) is considering an acquisition of the company. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TIBX.

TIBX opened this morning at $9.53. So far today the stock has hit a low of $9.16 and a high of $9.87. As of 11:35, TIBX is trading at $9.42 up 0.95 (11.2%). The chart for TIBX looks bullish and S&P gives TIBX a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

There's not a whole lot on the economic calendar this coming week, as Thursday is Christmas day. But things are not entirely silent either.

As this is Christmas card season, it's somehow appropriate that American Greetings Corp. (NYSE: AM) is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the nation's number two producer of greeting cards to report earnings of $0.52 per share, essentially the same as a year ago. Estimated revenue for the quarter is $474.5 million, down 2.3% from a year ago. American Greetings missed analysts' estimates in three of the past four quarters -- by 55.4% in the first quarter. After falling to a multiyear low of $7.85 per share in late November, the price closed Friday at $9.92. But the share price is 53.8% lower than a year ago.

Drugstore chain Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG), where one may find American Greetings cards, is expected to also report earnings the same as a year ago, or $0.46 per share, on revenue of $15.1 billion (+7.5%). Walgreen reported a modest increase in sales in October and again in November. The company only missed profit estimates in one of the past four quarters, and that by only a penny. The consensus recommendation remains to buy WAG, which has a long-term EPS growth rate forecast of 12.5%, better than the S&P 500 but less than that of rival CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS). Walgreen's share price has been creeping upward since reaching a multiyear low of $21.28 in October and closed Friday at $26.08. (For more on Walgreen, see Steven Mallas's earnings preview.)

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Neutral from Sell and said liquidity is no longer a near-term concern. The firm lowered Pacific Sunwear's target to $1.50 from $3. Citigroup upgraded shares to Hold from Sell on valuation following the recent weakness and believes Pacific Sunwear has sufficient liquidity to remain a going concern.
  
• Calyon believes Reliant Energy (NYSE: RRI) will be successful in unwinding the Merrill Lynch Retail credit sleeve and obtaining alternative collateral. The firm upgraded shares to Buy from Add.
  
• JP Morgan said Cogent's (NASDAQ: COGT) position in homeland security and the defense markets make it less sensitive to an economic downturn, making valuation attractive. JP Morgan upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target to $13 from $10.50.
• Goldman added Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) to its Conviction Buy List and removed Riverbed (NASDAQ: RVBD) from the Conviction Sell List.
  
• J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) was raised to Buy from Underperform at Merrill Lynch.

Analyst upgrades:

• Roth Capital upgraded Charlotte Russe (NASDAQ: CHIC) to Hold from Sell. The firm is positive on management's strategy to drive improved operating performance and is encouraged by the company's longer-term growth prospects.
  
• Banc of America upgraded shares of Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) to Neutral from Sell following the company's capital raise as they see a more balanced risk/reward at current levels. The firm lowered their target to $5 from $12.
  
• Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded Ameriprise (NYSE: AMP) to Outperform from Neutral.
  
• Bob Evans (NASDAQ: BOBE) was upgraded to Hold from Underweight at KeyBanc.
• J. Sainsbury (OTC: JSAIY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at ING and to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan after the company topped earnings expectations.

Analyst downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded General Motors (NYSE: GM) to Neutral from Overweight citing the "ambiguity of government aid structure" and the likely dilution to equity. The analyst said GM needs money now to get past December 2008 and will need at least $15B to get through 2009, with the total bailout potentially reaching $30B.
  
• Goldman downgraded Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) to Sell from Neutral and added shares to the Conviction Sell List.
  
• J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) was lowered to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Earnings reports continue to dribble in as the quarter winds down. Much of the attention this week will be on homebuilders KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) as investors look for any sign that the housing sector has bottomed (home sales numbers are also due out this week; see below). Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that both companies will report that they narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter.

KB Home's expected $1.25 per share loss, on revenue of $725.5 million, compares to the previous quarter loss of $3.30 and to a year-ago loss of $6.19. However, KB Home's losses in the past few quarters have been deeper than expected. The Los Angeles-based homebuilder's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.5%, less than the S&P 500. Analysts continue to recommend holding KB Home, and have for at least 120 days. Shares, however, reached a new 52-week high of $31.69 on Friday, and they are up 10.5% year to date.

Lennar is expected to post a loss of 52 cents per share, on revenue of $1.1 billion. That compares to the previous quarter's per-share loss of 76 cents and to a year-ago loss of $3.25. While Lennar also has tended in the past few quarters to miss expectations, the Miami-based company managed a positive surprise in the first quarter of 2008. Lennar's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.3%, about the same as KB Home's. Analysts also recommend holding Lennar. Friday, shares of Lennar also reached a 52-week high, $27.75, but they are down 6.4% year to date.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wright Medical, Bristol-Myers and Tibco were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Wright Medical (NASDAQ: WMGI) to Overweight from Market Weight after transferring coverage to another analyst, as they believe the company is well-positioned for continued good near-term performance.
  
• Bernstein upgraded Bristol-Myers (NYSE: BMY) to Outperform from Market Perform citing valuation, growth, and views the company as a potential M&A target.
  
• Jefferies upgraded Tibco (NASDAQ: TIBX) to Hold from Underperform as they believe investor expectations for a buyout will keep the stock steady despite the company's deteriorating fundamentals.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Independent Bank (NASDAQ: IBCP) was raised to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
  
• Brinker (NYSE: EAT) was raised at Goldman to Neutral from Sell.
  
• Piper upgraded The9 (NASDAQ: NCTY) to Buy from Neutral.

J.P. Morgan upgraded Tibco Software (NASDAQ:TIBX) from "neutral" to "overweight", according to MarketWatch.

Sandler O'Neill & Partners cut its earnings targets on Discover Financial (NYSE:DFS) ahead of earnings, according to the AP.

Boeing (NYSE:BA) was cut to "sell" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs, according to the AP. Briefing.com also reports that AT&T (NYSE:T) was raised to "outperform" at Bernstein

Guess (NYSE:GES) is up 7% on strong earnings.

Bob Evans (NASDAQ:BOBE) is up 3% on good same-store sales.

Tibco Software (NASDAQ:TIBX) is off 9% on a poor quarter.

Lehman (NYSE:LEH) is down 6% over concerns that it may have trouble raising money.

Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) is down 4% after reporting weak earnings.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.