If you haven't already and you can tolerate moderate risk, now's the time to purchase shares of The TJX Companies (TJX) and I'm reiterating my buy rating, first recommended on June 22, 2009 at a price of $21.48. If you bought TJX in June, you're up about an impressive 80%.

Off-price family apparel and home fashion retailer TJX (operator of the T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods chains) is in the discount retail sweet spot: it's poised to gain market share in the era of the 'frugal consumer.'

If you haven't purchased shares of The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), and can tolerate moderate risk, now's the time to establish a position to have a chance at outsized gains.

Off-price family apparel and home fashion retailer TJX (operator of the T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods chains) is poised to gain market share in the era of the frugal consumer.

When you think about retail stocks, which ones come to mind? For me, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) are at the top of the list. I think it has to do with the powerful brand equity that both possess. That, and they receive a lot of press between them. Honestly, I don't think of TJX (NYSE: TJX) as being in that league. I don't shop at T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, or any of the company's brands. I don't know many people who do.

But I thought I would take a look at the retailer's latest earnings report to see how it was doing. Unfortunately, there was nothing too impressive about the numbers. It wasn't disastrous or anything like that, it just didn't convince me that more due diligence was necessary.

For the fiscal third quarter, diluted earnings per share on an adjusted basis dropped two pennies to $0.54. The bottom line met results. Excluding the effect of currency exchange, same-store sales rose 1%. Not that great, really. Plus, the outlook from management was cautious, as one might expect. I will give TJX credit for its cash-flow statement: there was a nice increase in the amount of cash the company generated from operations for the thirty-nine-week period.

Even with the stimulus checks, retail sales numbers for June and July have been nothing to cheer about. And this coming week should provide another look at how things have been shaping up in the apparel and accessories arena. A number of companies are scheduled to release quarterly numbers, from upscale retailer Nordstrom to the parent of discounter TJ Maxx, from hipster Urban Outfitters to global giant Wal-Mart. Here's a look at what Wall Street is anticipating.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN): $0.30 EPS (+36.7%) on revenue of $448.5 million (+28.7%)
• Estée Lauder Cos. Inc. (NYSE: EL): $0.56 EPS (+19.6%) on revenue of $1.9 billion (+9.4%)
• TJX Cos. Inc. (NYSE: TJX): $0.46 EPS (+17.4%) on revenue of $4.6 billion (+6.8%)
• Fossil Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL): $0.25 EPS (+16%) on revenue of $346.8 million (+13.2%)
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT): $0.84 EPS (+14.3%) on revenue of $101.7 billion (+9.3%)
• Elizabeth Arden Inc. (NASDAQ: RDEN): $0.22 EPS (+9.1%) on revenue of $237.6 million (-2.1/%)
• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF): $0.93 EPS (+5.4%) on revenue of $872 million (+8.4%)

The Associated Press reports that a "Depression Era" mentality is taking hold among consumers. This matters to the overall economy since 70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth depends on consumer spending. Maybe this is good news because it will make people care more about spiritual matters, and less about material ones.

AP bolsters its consumer mentality shift with excerpts from a Nielsen survey that interviewed 50,000 consumers by e-mail during the first week of June. The survey found that

• 63% of consumers are cutting spending due to rising gas prices, up 18 percentage points from a year ago;
• 78% of consumers are combining shopping trips;
• 52% are eating out less often;
• Consumers are cutting more coupons;
• They do more of their shopping at super centers; and
• They buy less expensive brands.
  

The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year, from Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to be 22.7% to 22 cents per share, from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to be 9.3% to 75 cents per share, and from TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) to be 7.5% to 40 cents per share.

Analysts expect earnings declines from the previous year from JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) by 52.9% to 49 cents per share, from Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) by 34.4% to 42 cents per share, and from Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) by 18.3% to 49 cents per share.

In the case of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), analysts expect earnings to remain flat, year over year, at 65 cents per share.

And then there's Macy's (NYSE: M), which is expected to swing to a loss of 2 cents per share, compared to a profit of 16 cents a year ago.

The sample size may be too small to define any significant trends, but the numbers do suggest that analysts expect profit declines to be deeper than profit growth, and that consumers may be more likely, given the current state of the economy, to buy clothes at Wal-Mart or TJ Maxx than at Nordstrom or Abercrombie.

The coming results will reveal if those expectations are correct.

TJX Cos. (NYSE:TJX) has admitted that hackers stole 45.7 million credit and debit cards from its computer network over an 18-month period in what one analyst described as the biggest theft of its kind ever, according to the Associated Press.

The owner of TJ Maxx and Marshall's, which first disclosed the thefts more than two months ago, outlined the extent of the problem in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, the AP said, adding that 45,000 customers who returned merchandise also had their personal data stolen.

This is a public relations disaster.

The company should have disclosed to customers as much information as it could in January without jeopardizing any investigations. People would've grumbled, but they would have understood the situation because computer thefts are a fact of modern life.

Since the company waited to disclose the extent of the problem, TJX made customers even angrier than they would have been otherwise. Winning them back won't be easy.

It's no wonder that the company is being sued by invidiudals and investigated by the Federal Trade Commission.

The lesson here for companies is that it's a bad idea to bury bad news in an SEC filing. That information is easily accessible and somebody will read it eventually.