Jefferies upgraded shares of Genentech (NYSE: DNA) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $100 from $95 on increased likelihood of an acquisition after Roche (OTC: RHHBY) reaffirmed commitment to its $100/share offer.
Baird expects Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) to gain market share in 2009 in mobile phones, IPTVs, and digital TVs. Shares were upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Torchmark (NYSE: TMK) to Outperform from Market Perform as they see limited earnings risk and an attractive risk/reward.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) was raised to Buy from Add at Calyon.
Tellabs (NASDAQ: TLAB) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies.
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of National City (NYSE: NCC) to Outperform from Perform on valuation as they believe the bank is not seeing a mass exodus of depositors.
Wachovia upgraded Brookfield Infrastructure (NYSE: BIP) to Outperform from Market Perform due to what the firm sees as the company's solid cash flow growth outlook, strong balance sheet, and discounted valuation.
Baird upgraded Tellabs (NASDAQ: TLAB) to Outperform from Neutral citing valuation and improving 2009 prospects from 8800, 8600, and 7100 products and better Opex management..
Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen.
Borg-Warner (NYSE: BWA) was raised to Buy from Hold at Keybanc.
Analyst downgrades:
Merriman downgraded shares of TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) and Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Neutral from Buy to reflect concerns about display advertising trends and the company's above average exposure to the financial vertical.
Baird downgraded Monaco Coach (NYSE: MNC) to Neutral from Outperform and Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) and Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) to Underperform from Neutral citing valuations and checks that indicate "dreadful" fundamentals.
RBC Capital downgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Sector Perform from Outperform citing weakening consumer spending, reduced visibility, and risks to valuation. The company's target was lowered to $140 from $200.
In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.
Add Tellabs, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB) to the list of casualties from the Great Telecom Bust of the new millennium. It was a bloody massacre that highlighted the difficulties of forecasting; and, in particular, the danger of forecasting through the distorted lens of the dot-com bubble. When Internet traffic stopped multiplying at its previously exponential rate, the market was faced with a glut of supply and waning demand. Only the strong survived, but even they couldn't manage to thrive.
What went wrong? At No. 5 on our list of SPX underperformers, TLAB lost 87% of its value during the decade that ended June 30, 2008. The stock peaked at $77.25 in November 1999 before its momentum shifted.
In 1999, Tellabs was on an acquisition binge. A planned buyout of Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) had hit the skids, and the company made up for the loss by absorbing a series of smaller players -- within months, Tellabs told investors it would buy Alcatel's DSC Communications unit, Netcore Systems, and Salix Technologies.
Banc of America downgraded shares of both Nike and Foot Locker to Neutral from Buy, as the firm believes industry pressures in the U.S. could more than offset the potential turn in Europe and benefit from the 2008 Olympics.
Cowen downgraded shares of ADTRAN, Bookham and Tellabs to Neutral from Outperform.
Goldman Sachs also downgraded shares of Tellabs, to Sell from Neutral, as the firm believes the stock fully discounts the expected sales and margin improvement.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Allergan Inc (NYSE: AGN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley citing limited upside.
Lehman downgraded shares of The First American Corporation (NYSE: FAF) to Equal-Weight from Overweight on increasing risk to the company's title margin and regulatory concerns.
Matrix USA downgraded shares of Lowe's Companies Inc (NYSE: LOW) to Buy from Strong Buy on valuation.
Whether it's building a distribution system that lets your cable company transmit voice-video-data, or providing the systems that enable your phone company to build its fiber optic backbone network, there is an outfit in Naperville, Illinois that has the breadth of experience to make the process a smooth one.
Tellabs Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB) designs, develops and deploys telecommunications networking products. Its portfolio includes systems for wireline and wireless transport, access networking, broadband data, optical transport, and voice-quality enhancement. Clients include cable operators, corporations, government agencies and such carriers as Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T) and Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S). Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT) are major competitors.
The company pleased investors last week, when it reported Q1 EPS of six cents and revenues of $452 million. Analysts, who said the company saw strong demand for its advanced phone switching gear, had been expecting five cents and $452 million. Management also guided Q2 revenues to $500-$520 million, versus Street consensus of $502.5 million. The CEO said the firm was encouraged that its new technologies are "taking root" in service provider networks. TLAB shares popped into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern on the news. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. For TLAB, that break out commenced today.
Brokers recommend the issue with three "strong buys," three "buys," 12 "holds" and five "sells." Analysts see a 42% growth rate, through the next year. The TLAB Price to Sales ratio (2.39), Price to Book ratio (1.60), Price to Cash Flow ratio (15.90) and Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (17.46) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages.
Institutional investors hold about 70% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $8.84 and $16.40. A stop-loss of $9.55 looks good here.
Jim Cramer also came out on CNBC's MAD MONEY with some speculative stocks in telecom, even though his main focus in telecom is defensive right now. He said that the telecom expense expansions are back on track and these are his two speculative plays:
Tellabs Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB) is the spending play for AT&T's U-verse roll-out. He likes its "last-mile technology" for broadband and terminals. Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) is the spending play for Verizon's FiOS roll-out. Cramer also recommended taking profits on these as the contracts roll in. Cramer even said that Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) may need to make an acquisition after its horrible quarter, and either stock would fit the bill.
While it is easy to just believe the telecom expansion is underway, you should be aware that the speculation around this has been underway for close to a year. These stocks also have long histories and time has shown that you can't stay too long in the recoveries. Before getting too excited about these picks as fresh, Cramer did come out with these just yesterday already and has been making positive comments on them in recent days. So his fresh calls aren't really that fresh tonight. Regardless of whatever these stocks do, please be aware that under no circumstances are these "defensive" portfolio plays. Most of these telecom equipment and optic roll-out plays have been boom and bust and back again. These have been the 'Boulevard of Broken Dreams' and the 'Field of Dreams,' so pick your poison carefully.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
CIENA Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) opened at $30.95. So far today the stock has hit a low of $30.14 and a high of $30.95. As of 11:00, CIEN is trading at $30.18, down $0.01 (-0.1%).
After hitting a one year high of $33.67 in June, the stock has been volatile all year, hitting a year low of $22.04 in November. Jim Cramer wrote today that Verizon's (NYSE: VZ) earnings release this morning indicates that spending on optical businesses is going to see a notable jump for the first time in ages. Though he hates this sector, which he says hinges solely on Verizon, he thinks now is the time to get in. With Verizon's earnings out of the way, stocks like Ciena, Corning (NYSE: GLW), JDSU (NASDAQ: JDSU), and Tellabs (NASDAQ: TLAB) stand to benefit from the spending cycle. Recent technical indicators for CIEN have been bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. CIEN hasn't been below $25 since November and has shown support around $27.80 recently. This trade could be risky if Q2 earnings (due out in late May or early June) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the historical support around $25.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At press time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CIEN, VZ, GLW, JDSU, or TLAB.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lear Corp (LEA) and Tellabs Inc (TLAB) were today's most notable upgrades:
Lear Corp (NYSE: LEA) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse following the $2.31B cash bid from Carl Icahn.
Merrill Lynch upgraded Tellabs Inc (NASDAQ: TLAB) to Buy from Neutral, citing expectations for an improvement in cross-connect demand and margins; the firm expects Tellabs to benefit from AT&T's (NYSE: T) new broadband initiatives, a demand recovery at Cingular, T-Mobile 3G deployment plans and an increase in Sprint/Nextel (NYSE: S) base stations.
OTHER UPGRADES:
JP Morgan upgraded Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) to Overweight from Neutral based on expectations for gross margin upside to be driven by improved unit costs and market share gains in the notebook segment.
Raymond James upgraded shares of AirTran Holdings Inc (NYSE: AAI) to Outperform from Market Perform with a $14 target.
CIBC upgraded Kronos Inc (NASDAQ: KRON) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Perform, with a $46 target, as they find valuation attractive at current levels given their increasing confidence operations are improving.
State Street Corp (NYSE: STT) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley following the news of the Investors Financial Services Corp (NASDAQ: IFIN) acquisition.
Triad Hospitals Inc (NYSE: TRI) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Bank of America.
Overstock.com Inc (NASDAQ: OSTK) was upgraded to Neural from Sell at First Albany, as the worst is already reflected in the stock's valuation.
Matrix USA upgraded Estee Lauder Co Inc (NYSE: EL) to Hold from Sell based on fundamental trends.
The Wall Street Journal's (subscription required) "Heard on the Street" column focused on companies that would be hurt the most by the price of oil continuing to fall. The article mentioned Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) and Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU), along with alternative energy companies Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings (NYSE: AVR), Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX) and VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE).
OTHER PAPERS:
French newspaper Les Echoes reported that United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) may cancel its order for 10 Airbus A380s, which could create an opportunity for Boeing (NYSE: BA).
Light Reading reported that Tellab's (NASDAQ: TLAB) CTO Thomas Gruenwald will leave the company at the end of this week.
Investor's Business Daily's "New America" column mentioned BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) positively.
BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column mentioned Volcano (NASDAQ: VOLC), UCBH Holdings (NASDAQ: UCBH) and US Airways Group (NYSE: LCC) positively.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wal-Mart (WMT) and Motorola (MOT) were the most notable downgrades this morning.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Wal-Mart StoresInc. (NYSE: WMT) to Neutral from Buy; citing weaker sales and expected heavy markdowns.
Credit Suisse removed shares of Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) from their Focus List.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Bear Stearns downgraded the Restaurant Sector to Market Weight from Overweight, citing valuations and softening fundamentals. In addition, Applebee's International Inc. (NASDAQ: APPB) and P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc. (NASDAQ: PFCB) were both downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform.
Following the lower-than-expected Q4 guidance, Morgan Keegan downgraded shares of Tellabs Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB) to Market Perform from Outperform, as they do not expect a quick earnings recovery.
Ensco International Inc. (NYSE: ESV) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at JP Morgan; the firm says there is growth risk to the global jackup market including overcapacity in early 2008.
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who said the company saw strong demand for its advanced phone switching gear, had been expecting five cents and $452 million. Management also guided Q2 revenues to $500-$520 million, versus Street consensus of $502.5 million. The CEO said the firm was encouraged that its new technologies are "taking root" in service provider networks. TLAB shares popped into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern on the news. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. For TLAB, that break out commenced today.
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