- Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup. The firm views the recent sell-off in home building stocks as a buying opportunity and thinks Toll Brothers offers the best risk/reward in its coverage universe. Citi keeps a $23 price target on the stock.
- Kellogg (NYSE: K) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup following the Q3 results, as it believes the company's reduced spending and share buyback will serve as catalysts. The firm raised its price target on shares to $63 from $50.
- Rogers Communications (NYSE: RCI) and Telus (NYSE: TU) were upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, which said the CRTC unexpectedly denied Globalive's wireless application. The analyst said Globalive was potentially the biggest of new wireless competitors and the decision removes a big threat to the group. Rogers price target was raised to $40 from $33; Telus to $44 from $36.
- Stanley (NYSE: SXE) was upgraded at Wells Fargo to Outperform from Market Perform after the company reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its FY10 guidance.
- Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) was upgraded at Bernstein to Outperform from Market Perform. The analyst believes Texas Instruments' core business earnings power is underappreciated and valuation is attractive. Target raised to $30 from $28.
TOL posts
FeedAnalyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: JCG, K, MON, TOL, TXN ...
Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: JCG, K, MON, TOL, TXN ...
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Housing stocks are key to this market
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says stocks connected to the sector will take it on the chin if the housing index falls further.
A perusal of the charts this weekend shows something surprising: The weakest group out there has been the homebuilders for several weeks now. KB Home (NYSE: KBH) (Cramer's Take), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) have simply been a horror show. What's going on here? How can these stocks be so dangerous when mortgage rates have crashed through 5%, the level that every banker I talk to says mortgages jump off the table and refinancings rush to be done.
What's going on? This group's tracking more than just mortgage rates. It's tracking employment and news flow and both are terrible.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Housing stocks are key to this market
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Don't believe the latest doomsayer's housing hype
Until last night, when I thought of "Amherst" I thought of a school that my eldest daughter debated applying to. Not anymore. Nope. Now there's a new Amherst in town -- Amherst Securities. Last night this firm, which trades mortgage-backed securities, became the new expert on housing when it issued a report saying that we were going to have another leg down because the market is about to get hit by 7 million foreclosed homes.
Downbeat. Horrible. Sell the homebuilders. Sell the banks. Huge wave of foreclosures coming.
Yeah.
Got it.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Don't believe the latest doomsayer's housing hype
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Missing the big picture
Skeptical, or impossible? That's how I am posing the dilemma of the "pull through" argument whether it involves Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) and "Cash for Clunkers" or Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take), KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and the $8,000 tax credit.
Right now any time there is a stimulus program of any sort, the pundits/media/money managers all decide the most important single issue isn't what it will do to the numbers, or whether it will work at all, but what will it do to the "pull through." How much of future sales will it "steal"?
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Missing the big picture
Earnings highlights: Burger King, Dell, Dollar Tree, J. Crew, Staples, Toll Bros. ...
Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
- American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) Q2 profit fell short of estimates as same-store sales declined.
- Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) Q2 earnings beat very low expectations and same-store sales fell.
- Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) reported better-than-expected numbers for Q2, sending shares upward.
- Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC) posted a better-than-expected Q4 profit though revenue declined.
- China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. posted a record Q2 profit after restrictions on fuel prices were lifted.
- Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) said its Q2 earnings declined, but they still topped analysts' expectations.
Will housing stocks drop this fall?
If you listen to the majority of economists out there, they will tell you that the collapse of the housing market was one of the major factors that pushed us into the current recession. They will also tell you that a recovery in the housing market will be necessary if we are to ever pull out of this recession.So it's no surprise that, with all of that in mind, economists and investors have been excited to see improvements in the housing market this summer.
For instance, the New Home Sales number released on Wednesday by the Census Bureau showed that sales rose more than expected in July -- to 433,000.
Toll Brothers earnings preview: A big Q3 loss expected
Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is scheduled to discuss its fiscal third-quarter 2009 results tomorrow in a conference call at 2:00 PM ET hosted by CEO Robert I. Toll. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.
Recent good news about the housing sector ought to be good news for homebuilders such as Toll Brothers. Yet, for the three months that ended July 31, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the Pennsylvania-based company to report that its net loss widened to $1.74 per share from $0.18 per share a year ago. That largely due to the fact that revenue for the quarter is expected to have fallen 42.3% to $460.2 million, because of of falling home prices, tighter mortgage lending standards, and rising unemployment.
Continue reading Toll Brothers earnings preview: A big Q3 loss expected
Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMD, AXP, ACI, NOK, NRP, SYK, WPCS
- Citigroup upgraded Advanced Micro (NYSE: AMD) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $5.50 from $4.25 citing valuation and expectations for the company's competitive position and gross margins to improve.
- Barclays upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing long-term earnings growth as the company benefits from declining charge-offs and credit costs. The firm has a $38 target on the stock.
- JPMorgan upgraded Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target to $22 from $19 citing the FTC approval for the acquisition of Jacobs Ranch mine and valuation.
- Bebe Stores (NASDAQ: BEBE) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
- Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray.
- Ashland (NYSE: ASH) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.
Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMD, AXP, ACI, NOK, NRP, SYK, WPCS
The week in preview: Canadian banks in the earnings spotlight
Canadian banks are scheduled to step into the earnings spotlight this week, with third-quarter reports coming from Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD). While Canadian banks on the whole held up better than their U.S. counterparts during the financial crisis, these five are expected to report that their earnings are still declining in the most recent quarter.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for EPS for these banks to have fallen from 15% to 25% from a year ago. Their long-term EPS growth forecast is for between 10% and 12%, which is in the same range as U.S. rivals JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), but better than Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C). Earnings multiples for these Canadian banks are 10x to 12x, but none of them have a First Call consensus recommendation is to buy. The Motley Fool, though, considers TD as a value stock and RY a stock poised to pop. All of them are trading much closer to their 52-week highs than lows, and shares of all are up more than 100% since March lows.
Continue reading The week in preview: Canadian banks in the earnings spotlight
Comfort Zone Investing: Starting over
Most investors got slammed last year, down 50% or more in their investments. Didn't matter if they owned stocks or real estate, they got hammered. Many have to start over. And if they're near retirement, it's scary. Years of patient investing wiped out, gains that were made over a long time disappeared frighteningly fast.
But now it's time to begin fresh, to rebuild. What's the safest way to regain some or all of the losses without suffering another wipeout?
Cramer on BloggingStocks: This bull is just biding his time
In a week we've gone from, "Prove it, bears -- prove how crummy it really is," to, "Bulls, give me a break -- don't bother taking the futures up, you're finished and you know it."
What caused the transformation? I think price. The realization that the moves have been so breathtaking that it converted bulls to bears literally overnight. I don't think this is the "same old bear" that is growling.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: This bull is just biding his time
Lennar's Q2 doesn't convince me to buy
Lennar (NYSE: LEN), whose colleagues include Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), reported earnings for the second quarter on Thursday. Since it is a homebuilder, you can expect that it would be a tough one to look at in many respects. There was a revenue decline of over 20%. And there was no profit. Lennar said it lost 76 cents per diluted share.
According to Michael Fowlkes and his earnings preview, Lennar did not satisfy Wall Street's outlook. Analysts were expecting a loss somewhere closer to 63 cents per share. That didn't stop the stock from going up, though. Lennar closed higher yesterday by over 17%. Volume was likewise incredible. Apparently, the market was focusing on the revenue beat.
Hovnanian's Q1 shows an improvement
Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV), a home builder whose related companies include Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), reported Q2 results on Tuesday after the bell. The company reported a loss of $1.50 per share (the results included a gain related to debt extinguishment). That unfortunately did not meet analyst expectations according to Trey Thoelcke's earnings preview. Analysts were looking for a loss of $1.26 per share.
However, things do look better. Last year at this time, the loss recorded by Hovnanian was a whopping $5.29 per share. Revenues, however, plummeted to $398 million from over $770 million. Analysts were expecting only $348 million according to the preview.
Home builders expected to post narrower losses, declining revenue
Still wondering whether the housing market has bottomed? Well, the next couple of days should offer some clues, as pending home sales numbers for April are due out later this morning, and home builders Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) and Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) will be releasing their quarterly results. While both are expected to have narrowed their losses, their revenues are expected to have shrunk by half, as well.
Continue reading Home builders expected to post narrower losses, declining revenue
The week in preview: DynCorp, Joy Global, Shanda and more
Much of the attention this week will no doubt be on how the impending General Motors (NYSE: GM) bankruptcy will shake out, as well as the usual economic concerns: Has the housing market bottomed? Will oil prices keep rising? Is the employment situation getting any better? And so on (see highlights of the economic calendar below).
What probably won't get much attention are quarterly earnings, as the earnings season for this quarter winds down. But there are a few reports that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters have high hopes for.
Continue reading The week in preview: DynCorp, Joy Global, Shanda and more


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