CF Industries (CF - option chain) stock is trading lower today after the situation surrounding two takeover deals continues to get murkier. Agrium (AGU) announced this morning that CF's stockholders tendered 62% of their shares into a hostile takeover offer launched by AGU. AGU extended the offer, which originally was to expire yesterday, to December 18. Meanwhile, CF's board said that it does not believe that the tender results reflect stockholder support for Agrium's offer. At the same time, Terra Industries (TRA) is fending off a hostile bid made by CF. The uncertainty surrounding this situation is holding back CF shares and if you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on the stock.

This morning, CF opened at $83.60. So far today the stock has hit a high of $82.50 and a low of $84.48. As of 11:50, TRA is trading at $82.71, down $3.58 (-4.2%). The chart for CF looks neutral and S&P gives CF a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM) to Neutral from Sell and Advanced Semiconductor (NYSE: ASX) to Buy from Neutral as it is seeing early signs of stabilization in the semiconductor industry.
  
• Jefferies upgraded VCA Antech (NASDAQ: WOOF) to Hold from Underperform as it does not see significant downside in the stock given the low expectations. It raised its target price to $22 from $15.
  
• Baird upgraded Sigma Designs (NASDAQ: SIGM) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $16 from $9 as it expects revenue growth to resume in 2009 driven by IPTV end-demand.
• Goldman removed Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) from the Conviction Sell List.
  
• Portfolio Recovery (NASDAQ: PRAA) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
  
• Post Properties (NYSE: PPS) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Hold from Sell.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), a producer of crop nutrients, closed at $41.35. MOS is presenting at Goldman Sachs Agriculture Biotech Forum on February 10. MOS is presenting at the Morgan Stanley Global Basic Materials Conference on February 18. MOS February option implied volatility is at 71, March is at 76 is below its 26-week average of 81, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movements.

Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA), a nitrogen producer, is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on February 10. CF Industries (NYSE: CF) announced on January 16 an unsolicited bid for TRA, offering to exchange 0.4235 shares of CF for each share of TRA. TRA closed at $22.22. CF closed at $52.44. TRA February and June option implied volatility of 73 is below its 26-week average of 85, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to its Conviction Buy List. The analyst expects Baidu to benefit from growth in paid search in China, where growth is expected to be 30% annually.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Corporate Office Properties (NYSE: OFC) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect the company's exposure to the "sound" Washington, D.C., market and "favorable" liquidity position.
  
• Soleil upgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $45 from $38 on the strength of the company's non-refining segment.
• Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), Potash (NYSE: POT), Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) and Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  
• Kroger (NYSE: KR) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.

Analyst downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of Bronco Drilling (NASDAQ: BRNC) to Underperform from Hold and lowered its target to $4.50 from $7.50 on valuation and their expectations for a rig decline in U.S. drilling activity.
  
• Morgan Stanley cut Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) to Equal Weight from Overweight into reporting season on concerns of further impairment charges.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Sell from Hold to reflect challenges in the handset market.
• Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) was lowered to Sell from Hold at WestLB.
  
• BT Group (NYSE: BT) was slashed at JP Morgan to Underweight from Neutral.
  
• Sovereign Bancorp (NYSE: SOV) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette.

Analyst initiations:

Agrium (NYSE: AGU), North America's third largest fertilizer producer, closed at $38.78 Thursday. AGU November option implied volatility of 113 is above its 26-week average of 70 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Potash (NYSE: POT) closed at $84.71 Thursday. POT November option implied volatility of 102 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA), a producer of nitrogen products, closed at $21.82 Thursday. TRA November option implied volatility of 110 is above its 26-week average of 80, suggesting larger price movement.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), a producer of crop nutrients, closed at $37.81 Thursday. MOS November option implied volatility of 109 is above its 26-week average of 76 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movements.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: AmericanWest and Raymond James were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Keefe Bruyette initiated AmericanWest (NASDAQ: AWBC) with a Market Perform rating and $5 target, citing limited capital and credit visibility.
  
• Sandler started Raymond James (NYSE: RJF) with a Buy rating.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Goldman assumed Terra Industries (NYS: TRA) with a Sell rating and CF Industries (NYSE: CF) with a Neutral rating and $180 target.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN), WellCare Health Plans, Inc (WCG) and agricultural chemical stocks were today's more noteworthy downgrades:

• BWS Financial downgraded Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Hold from Buy citing valuation.

• Jefferies cut WellCare Health Plans Inc (NYSE: WCG) to Underperform from Hold and lowered their target to $69 from $80 as the firm believes higher-than-expected medical costs in Georgia will put significant pressure on earnings.

• Citigroup downgraded Agrium Inc (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc (NYSE: CF), Potash Corp (NYSE: POT) and Terra Industries Inc (NYSE: TRA) to Hold from Buy given the year-to-date share appreciation, as their analysis suggests near-term positive earnings revisions are near a peak and should slow going forward. Citigroup remains positive on the fertilizer industry over the long-term.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Keefe Bruyette downgraded Federated Investors, Inc (NYSE: FII) to Market Perform from Outperform citing the potential impact from Bank of New York Co (BK)/ Mellon Financial Corp (MEL) transactions.

• Jefferies cut Amerigroup Corp (NYSE: AGP) to Underperform from Hold with a $25 target.

• Stephens downgraded Pacer International, Inc (NASDAQ: PACR) to Equal Weight from Overweight.

• Atlantic Equities downgraded Adobe Systems Inc (NASDAQ: ADBE) to Neutral from Overweight.

• Harman International Industries Inc (NYSE: HAR) was taken down to Hold from Buy at Gabelli.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).