Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded FPL Group (FPL) to buy from hold on valuation and recommends buying the stock into the staff recommendation. The firm raised its target on shares to $58 from $55.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Smithfield Foods (SFD) to buy from hold as it believes the company's fundamentals and export demand outlook are improving. The firm raised its target on shares to $20 from $12.
• Credit Suisse upgraded T. Rowe Price (TROW) to outperform from neutral and raised its target to $60 from $55 based on strong net inflows and potential operating leverage.
• Microchip (MCHP) was upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Ascent Solar (ASTI) was upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue, sending shares higher.
• Allergan Inc. (NYSE: AGN) reported better-than-expected Q3 numbers, sending shares higher.
• Bare Escentuals Inc. (NASDAQ: BARE) Q3 profit easily topped analysts' estimates, and shares surged.
• Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: COG) received an upgrade following the release of its Q3 numbers.
• Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) reported strong Q1 results, sending shares higher.
• E*Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) reported a smaller-than-expected net loss for Q3.
• Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) Q3 earnings topped estimates and revenue was up sequentially.

Analyst upgrades:

• Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Canaccord, which cited the company's strong Q1 results.
• Pali Capital raised T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ: TROW) to Neutral from Sell following the company's better-than-expected Q3 results.
• Under Armour (NYSE: UA) was upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna following positive checks ahead of the company's Tuesday's Q3 report.
• Stifel Nicolaus raised American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Buy from Hold, as the firm thinks the company is close to reaching "normalized" earnings.
• Goldman Sachs upgraded Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) to Sell from Conviction Sell.
• RBC Capital upgraded Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
• American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform by Pacific Crest.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Brocade (NASDAQ: BRCD) to Buy from Hold on expectations expanding OEM partnerships, new products and entry into new markets will drive long-term growth. The firm's channel checks indicate the first phase of an IBM (NYSE: IBM) deal for ethernet products will be announced next week. Jefferies raised its target price on the stock to $6 from $3.50.
  
• JMP Securities upgraded Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) to Market Perform from Underperform citing the potential settlement with Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM). The firm said Broadcom has far more to gain than Qualcomm has to lose.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Air Products (NYSE: APD) and Praxair (NYSE: PX) to Buy from Hold on expectations that an improvement in customer operating rates will benefit gas companies. The firm raised its target price on Air Products to $70 from $55 and on Praxair to $79 from $63.
  
• Royal Bank of Scotland upgraded BP Plc (NYSE: BP) to Buy from Hold to reflect its dividend yield at current levels.
• Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) was raised to Outperform from Underperform at RBC Capital.
  
• T. Rowe Price (NYSE: TROW) was upgraded at Sandler O'Neill to Hold from Sell.
  
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) was lifted to Neutral from Underperform at Banc of America/Merrill.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer is seeing signs of a coming boom, but he's still being cautious here.

If you had to define the early cycle, if you had to outline what stocks should be soaring coming out of a recession into a boom and which ones should be faltering, you would have to say the action in this market in the last month is the quintessential behavioral pattern.

What are the components of the early cycle? First, it's the homebuilders. As is typical coming out of a recession, the stocks precede the bottom of housing. That's exactly what's happening with the lowest permits and highest affordability and best mortgage rates and massive inventory. Everywhere, except on Wall Street reporting, the bottom is bursting out. When you read the lead story in the Sunday Philadelphia Inquirer, and it is all about the thousands of prospective homebuyers heading south to pick up condos and homes for half of what they were worth two years ago -- or even less -- and you know that virtually no one has broken ground in the Sunshine State in a year, you can bet that the bottom's actually behind us. This housing market has wiped out all but the most stable private builders and even the public ones are merging as we know from Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take). So, in the next cycle, you can see some profitability developing year over year even though the new homes don't have much margin because the foreclosed homes next door are going for a song. And don't believe this won't change the dynamic of future foreclosures. In most areas, rent is higher than the interest on mortgages, so you will find that second or third job needed to stay in your home. The incentive structure's radically different than a year ago.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says companies saddled with high debt loads can be found in every sector in every business.

Overleveraged. Too much debt. Need to pay down debt. How many times have you read that story?

You read it so much because it plays out every day and plays havoc with stock picking almost every time you see a savory stock down on its luck.

This weekend, as I went through the charts, I was amazed at how low some stocks have gone, stocks that I would normally say to just take a flyer on, but turn out to have so much debt, short- and long-term, that they are just too dangerous.

Consider these perhaps poisonous morsels:

Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer assumed coverage of Sohu (NASDAQ:SOHU) and upgraded shares to Outperform from Perform as they believe the company is better positioned in an uncertain economy. The firm thinks strength in online games could lead to EPS upside and raised their target to $61 from $53.
  
• Allegiant (NASDAQ:ALGT) was upgraded to Buy from hold at Jesup & Lamont on valuation following the recent weakness.
  
• Suntrust upgraded Prosperity Bancshares (NASDAQ:PRSP) to Buy from Neutral based on valuation. The firm maintains a $30 target on shares.
• LaBranche (NYSE:LAB) was upgraded to Buy from Sell at Goldman.
  
• AU Optronics (NYSE:AUO) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
• Core Laboratories (NYSE:CLB) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Analyst downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of BPZ Resources (AMEX:BPZ) to Underperform from Hold as they believe the decline in oil prices and the uncertain credit markets has placed considerable pressure on the company's operations in northwest Peru. The firm maintains a $5 target on the stock.
  
• UBS downgraded StatoilHydro (NYSE:STO) and Repsol SA (NYSE:REP) to Neutral from Buy as they expect 2009 to be a difficult year for European oil and gas companies.
  
• Bernstein downgraded Heinz (NYSE:HNZ) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered their target to $42 from $62 citing foreign exchange impact and commodity pressures.
• Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX) was downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Barclays.
  
• Siemens (NYSE:SI) was lowered to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Pride International (NYSE:PDE) was cut to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Analyst initiations:

• Kaufman Bros. believes GT Solar's (NASDAQ:SOLR) equipment orders are at a bottom and that shares are undervalued. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $7 target.
  
• Jefferies assumed L-1 Identity (NYSE:ID) with a Buy rating and $11 target. The firm believes concerns over the company's sensitivity to government budget priorities and elevated levels of debt are overdone.
  
• JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) was started at Keefe Bruyette with a Market Perform rating and $30 target. Keefe Bruyette sees limited catalysts for the stock as they expect credit headwinds and subdued investment banking revenues to persist over the near-term.
• Legg Mason (NYSE:LM) and T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) were initiated with an Equal Weight rating at Barclays.
  
• Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) was initiated at Janney Mongtomery with a Neutral rating.
  
• Friedman Billings reinitiated U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) with an Underperform rating and $17 target.

After the stock market meltdown of 2008, Wall Street brokerages aren't anyone's favorites in 2009.

But some customers said they're still happy with their online broker.

A December ChangeWave survey of 3,051 consumers found that despite the extremely difficult financial market, two online brokerages still capture high customer satisfaction ratings -- Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) and archrival, Scottrade.

Analyst upgrades:

• Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Principal Financial (NYSE: PFG) to Market Perform from Underperform as they believe the company's capital buffer could keep outrunning credit losses.
  
• Friedman Billings also upgraded Office Max (NYSE: OMX) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm believes the risk of recourse to Office Max from the Timber Notes formerly backed by Lehman is low and that any litigation by noteholders will have a low level of success.
  
• Citigroup upgraded CF Industries (NYSE: CF) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent weakness but lowered their target to $113 from $128.
• Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  
• Granite Construction (NYSE: GVA) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  

Analyst downgrades:

Wall Street's optimism in last week's preview about the earnings of tech stocks wasn't misplaced, as there were many more positive surprises than negative ones among the stocks we looked at. This week will bring plenty more data for investors in and watchers of the sector to mull over. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post modest earnings gains from a year ago, to $1.11 per share (on $8.1 billion in sales), $0.72 per share (on $31.3 billion in sales), and $0.47 per share (on $14.8 billion in sales) respectively. All three of these companies ended the week closer to their 52-week lows than highs, and analysts on average consider them each a buy.

Here's a look at some of the week's biggest expected earnings gainers and decliners in the sector:

• Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU): $1.25 per share (+44.0%) on revenues of $134.7 million (+103.2%)
• Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM): $0.44 per share (+38.6%) on revenues of $1.3 billion (+33.8%)
• QLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QLGC): $0.31 per share (+29.0%) on revenues of $170.0 million (+21.2%)
• FLIR Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR): $0.32 per share (+28.1%) on revenues of $275.2 million (+44.0%)
• Juniper Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR): $0.30 per share (+26.7%) on revenues of $927.4 million (+26.2%)
• Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT): $0.75 per share (+17.3%) on revenues of $391.6 million (+11.1%)
• Flextronics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX): $0.29 per share (+17.2%) on revenues of $8.7 billion (+57.3%)
• EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC): $0.19 per share (+10.5%) on revenues of $3.7 billion (+12.9%)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Merrill Lynch, Yahoo! and T Rowe Price were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) to Underperform from Perform on valuation and their negative outlook related to the monoline insurers given MER's overall exposure to sub-prime mortgage related assets. The broker believes MER could have an additional write-down of $10B if the monolines were to be downgraded and that MER shares are valued more appropriately below $44.
  
• Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup and lowered their target to $22 from $33 to reflect the company's continued share losses in the search market and uncertainty over 2008 investments. Oppenheimer lowered shares to Perform from Outperform and lowered their target to $20 from $30 to reflect the weaker than expected 2008 margin guidance.
  
• Friedman Billings downgraded T Rowe Price (NASDAQ: TROW) to Underperform from Market Perform and expects margin pressure in 2008.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan downgraded Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE: SMG) to Neutral from Overweight.
  
• UBS lowered Centex (NYSE: CTX) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Merrill lowered American Campus (NYSE: ACC) to Neutral from Buy.

Update: See the latest posts about stocks to buy from BloggingStocks.

After nailing the top in Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and warning investors this would be a painful year, I've been getting hundreds of emails from people asking me what to do next? As if suddenly after two correct predictions, I'm Nostradamus or David Blaine!

Make no mistake, I'm neither a forecaster nor a magician, I'm just a trader who bases his decisions around these key elements: a distrust of everyone and every company on Wall Street (made easier by the likes of MBIA (NYSE: MBI), E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) and Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC); a respect, bordering on religion, for charts and a quick trigger finger if the charts turn against me. I know people want longer term predictions, but I believe those to be 100% guessing games and potentially hazard to your investment health. Pregnant women should avoid them at all costs. Just kidding, it's fine for some people, but I like to make my predictions and cash out, so I can enjoy stress-free weekends if you catch my drift.

So, here's what I see right now: two weeks in and we're already halfway to my 10%-down market prediction, and Apple is down 15% (take that you stereotypical cheerleaders, go date some football players)! The markets are definitely rolling over, and while it's usually a long, drawn-out process, the charts seem to have little concern for what's normal as all the major indices have formed perfect head-and-shoulders patterns (a very bearish sign) and investors are rightfully freaking out.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Genesit Energy LP (GEL), EnerNoc (ENOC) and Comcast (CMCSA) were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Genesis Energy (AMEX: GEL) was initiated with a Buy rating and $40 target at Stanford, as the firm believes the company's affiliation with Denbury Resources and pending acquisition of petroleum products, terminals, and transportation businesses from the Davison family will drive rapid growth.

• EnerNoc Inc (NASDAQ: ENOC) was initiated with a Hold rating and $42 target at Jefferies, due to valuation. EnerNoc was also initiated at Morgan Stanley with an Equal Weight rating and $40 target.

• Stifel expects Comcast (OTC: CMCSA) to benefit from higher penetration levels of DVR and HDTV set-top boxes over the next several years and initiated shares with a Buy rating and $34 target.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Select asset managers were initiated at Credit Suisse:

• AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Fortress Investment (NYSE: FIG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) and T Rowe Price (NASDAQ: TROW) were initiated with Outperform ratings.

• Blackrock (NYSE: BLK), Calamos Asset Mgmt (NADAQ: CLMS), Eaton Vance Corp (NYSE: EV), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), Legg Mason Inc (NYSE: LM) and Waddell & Reed (NYSE: WDR) were initiated with Neutral ratings.

• Deutsche Bank initiated Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL) with a Buy rating and $52 target, as well as Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) and Meritage Homes Corp (NYSE: MTH) with Hold ratings and a $23 target and $29 target, respectively.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).