Back in July of 2007, Jim Cramer -- who is a very smart guy -- conducted an interview on TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) website, where he told Farnoosh Torabi that the subprime crisis had "absolutely no relevance" and added that the media was making a big deal out of it to try to look like they knew as much as the hedge fund managers.
Ooops. Let me be clear: I'm a big fan of Mr. Cramer, and I watch his show regularly. But the bottom line is that, when it comes to predicting the future of the market and analyzing issues as complex as this -- no one knows anything.
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of National City (NYSE: NCC) to Outperform from Perform on valuation as they believe the bank is not seeing a mass exodus of depositors.
Wachovia upgraded Brookfield Infrastructure (NYSE: BIP) to Outperform from Market Perform due to what the firm sees as the company's solid cash flow growth outlook, strong balance sheet, and discounted valuation.
Baird upgraded Tellabs (NASDAQ: TLAB) to Outperform from Neutral citing valuation and improving 2009 prospects from 8800, 8600, and 7100 products and better Opex management..
Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen.
Borg-Warner (NYSE: BWA) was raised to Buy from Hold at Keybanc.
Analyst downgrades:
Merriman downgraded shares of TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) and Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Neutral from Buy to reflect concerns about display advertising trends and the company's above average exposure to the financial vertical.
Baird downgraded Monaco Coach (NYSE: MNC) to Neutral from Outperform and Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) and Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) to Underperform from Neutral citing valuations and checks that indicate "dreadful" fundamentals.
RBC Capital downgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Sector Perform from Outperform citing weakening consumer spending, reduced visibility, and risks to valuation. The company's target was lowered to $140 from $200.
I've been critical of allegedly steroid-pumping baseball player turned options trader turn TheStreet.com pundit Lenny Dykstra for awhile. I recently asked "Do you really want to take options trading advice from a guy who got his job as an investment guru at least in part because he sent Jim Cramer's sister a signed poster?"
Now Forbes is making a startling accusation: "Yet a close look at Dykstra's portfolio raises doubts about whether the baseball All-Star turned TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) guru has been picking many of those stocks or relying on a seasoned stand-in."
The juicy dirt comes from a lawsuit filed against the former slugger by Doubldown Media, a publisher that had been collaborating with Dykstra on a newslettter: "At Dykstra's insistence, Doubledown began negotiations to pay Richard Suttmeier, a stock analyst, to provide Dykstra with research assistance for the Dykstra Report and who, upon information and belief learned subsequently, provided Dykstra lists of recommended stocks daily."
CNet's Web sites include News.com, TV.com, Mp3.com, MySimon and GameSpot. And CBS expects to use CNet to tap into the Internet advertising market. This deal raises the question of whether any CBS competitors will decide to get into the game of buying Internet content companies.
Here are three possible targets:
TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) - This provider of business, investment and ratings content has $65 million in sales and a market cap of $236 million.
TechTarget (NASDAQ: TTGT) - This provider of online content for buyers and sellers of corporate information technology (IT) products has $95 million in sales and a $531 million market cap.
WebMD Health Corp (NASDAQ: WBMD) - This provider health information services to consumers, physicians and other healthcare professionals, employers and health plans has $332 million in sales and it's market capitalization is $1.7 billion
I think traditional media companies buying Internet ones could become a trend. It would only take two more such deals to make it one.
Despite today's major markets showing a drop, this would really look like another mixed day on fairly light trading volume as profits fight economic numbers. Oil fell more than $3.00 per barrel and consumer confidence came in at a 5-Year low. Foreclosures also have risen by more than 100% with what now appears to be 1 home per 194 that are in foreclosure. All this is one day ahead of the FOMC meeting with the decision to raise rates, and one day after Warren Buffett called a recession already here. Below are the unofficial closing prices for major US index averages:
I'm puzzled by a lot of things about the market, but the ascent of former Major League Baseball All-Star Lenny Dykstra to the throne of options trading pundit is pretty interesting.
He writes regularly for TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM), with a focus on the trading of deep in the money calls, one of the less risky options trading strategies out there. A 2006 look at his background in Fortune summed his market experience up this way: "After his mutual funds tanked, Lenny Dykstra leaned on some heavy hitters to transform him from an ex-major leaguer to a minor-league stock picker. At the time, he was talking to the reporter about a stock he owned called Lipid Sciences (NASDAQ: LIPD), which has steadily declined in value since that article. It was the only stock he owned.
Outside of his columns and appearances on CNBC, Mr. Dykstra's media attention has been less than positive. His name appears 28 times in the Mitchell Report on steroid use in baseball, but he declined to speak with Mitchell's team. In an affidavit, for Major Leaguer and steroid user Jason Grimsley accused Dykstra of using steroids.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: AsiaInfo Holdings, Western Alliance Bancorp and Gladstone Capital were today's noteworthy initiations:
Kaufman Bros. believes AsiaInfo Holdings (NASDAQ: ASIA) is the leading provider of software to Chinese telecommunications firms, which they note are in the midst of a spending increase to upgrade legacy billing and CRM software systems. The firm initiated shares with a Buy rating and $15 target.
Keefe Bruyette resumed coverage of Western Alliance Bancorp (NYSE: WAL) with a Market Perform rating and $14 target and sees the potential for short-term real estate headline risk.
Gladstone Capital (NASDAQ: GLAD) was assumed with a Perform rating at Oppenheimer. The firm believes the increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment raises the risk of deteriorating credit quality and finds shares fairly priced at current levels.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
JMP Securities initiated TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) with an Outperform rating and $13 target.
Baird initiated Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) with a Neutral rating and $26 target.
Informatica (NASDAQ: INFA) was initiated with a Buy rating at Broadpoint.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: TheStreet.com, Corning and AeroGrow were today's noteworthy initiations:
ThinkEquity believes TheStreet.com (NASDAQ:TSCM) has solid growth prospects and sees catalysts from the integration of Promotions.com, expansion into new verticals, and new syndication deals. The firm intiiated shares with a Buy rating and $18 target.
Corning (NYSE:GLW) was initiated with a Buy rating and $31 target at Jefferies, as they believe the LCD industry is positioned for healthy trends in 2008 and beyond.
AeroGrow (NASDAQ:AERO) was initiated with a Buy rating at Merriman, as they believe infomercials, catalog mailers and the company's website should enhance product visibility, driving higher sales across all distribution channels as well as brand awareness.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Baird started Pennant Park (NASDAQ:PNNT) with an Outperform rating and $13 target.
Spansion initiated Under Armour (NYSE:UA) with an Overweight rating and $55 target.
Financial journalism is all about breaking news. News is easily researchable and journalists feel comfortable voicing their opinions. But the truth is that most news -- no matter how fabulous a company's PR firm makes it sound -- usually means little to a company's stock (it's more about the market's expectations, something that is not very researchable).
And that's why I prefer to write about companies whose stock charts are breaking out, as I have with Mercadolibre (NASDAQ: MELI) here, Solarfun (NASDAQ: SOLF) here, INVESTools (NASDAQ: SWIM) here and TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) here (all of which are nicely, and somewhat predictably, higher) and LDK Solar (NASDAQ: LDK) here (which, in my defense, never reached my breakout price of $77; instead it tanked, exemplifying the risks involved with buying stocks before breakouts). After all, while it's fun to learn about breaking news and new products, it's even more fun to profit from the stock market (my apologies to all financial journalists, but you guys just aren't traders)!
It's not easy to top a present like TheStreet.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: TSCM), but my next holiday stock pick does just that. I give you investor education cum brokerage firm INVESTools Inc. (Nasdaq: SWIM). It's a pretty cool business model that aims to teach people to invest via seminars, getting some juicy upfront fees and reaping the rewards over time through commissions and fees, if they are successful in their teachings.
Besides having a booming stock – which, after a nasty 50% mid-year drop, this week is breaking out to new all-time highs – an incredible trading platform that I use for my own trading and big time investors known for discovering undervalued smallcap stocks, this company has some serious growth. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find another company in the finance arena with numbers that are even in the same ballpark.
'Tis the season to celebrate the spirit of giving and how better to do that than to give you a great stock pick – financial information provider TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM). This is my first pick in a series of picks that will highlight companies that are redefining their respective niches and, more importantly, whose stocks are breaking out to new highs.
Everybody's familiar with TheStreet.com; if you're into the stock market, you've definitely read, heard or watched co-founder Jim Cramer by now – he's even here on BloggingStocks. TheStreet.com has many other commentators, too, but c'mon, this is basically a one man show – and therein lies the risk. Then there's the potential for a bear market, which (as CNBC, owned by General Electric (NYSE: GE) has learned over the years) crushes profits. Wait a minute; I'm positive on this company, right? Yes. Here's the good news: this company has a lot going for it.
Revenue and profit growth have been steady in the mid-20% range, and the stock is fairly valued for that range. But TheStreet.com is also shifting its focus to take advantage of the interactive nature of the internet. In the coming months, it'll be launching a redesigned TheStreet.com (apparently, it's not even search engine optimized!), along with a new site, MainStreet.com. It also has been on an acquisition spree, buying Stockpickr.com (an interactive stock idea community with 125,000+ users) and Corsis (web marketing). Further acquisitions are guaranteed considering just last month the company more than doubled its near $40 million war chest by selling a minority stake to a private equity firm.
But there is one phenomenal property here: AOL's Advertising.com platform showed an entire reach of 159,204,000. That is roughly an 87% reach of the estimated 182+ million users in the U.S. measured by comScore.
The thing to watch is that ALL ratings and measurement companies give different data. comScore's data is based on a global cross-section of more than 2 million consumers who have given comScore permission to confidentially capture their browsing and transaction behavior. That means there can always be some slippage and mis-measurements, but this still gives a decent ballpark figure of web usage and web reach.
If you look at the data, this also bodes well for Jim Cramer & Co. over at TheStreet.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSCM). The financial web site owner showed a 125% gain in unique visitors with a 125% gain to more than 8.9 million unique visitors.
Barron's featured a cover story (subscription required) on the performance of Jim Cramer's stock picks essentially classified Cramer as one big short opportunity. Understandably, the brains at TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) were offended and came back strong.
James Altucher wrote a powerful article which appeared on TheStreet.com Wednesday. This article managed to destroy Barron's anti-Cramer arguments, in my opinion. Through legitimate backtesting (following Cramer's recommendations -- wait 5-10 days, etc.), Altucher found that Cramer actually managed to outperform the market.
However, I had one issue with Altucher's article. While he was perfectly justified in disputing their use of the Friday close in their performance tracking, I think the one month holding period is way too short for many of Barron's ideas to materialize. Unlike Cramer, they are a much more long-term oriented crowd focused primarily on valuation. As a result, I'd argue a one-year holding period makes much more sense for creating their track record.
What should you do? Don't get involved in these disputes! You should read Barron's and watch Cramer! Anything you can do to help bring more ideas to your radar screen for further research is a worthwhile use of time in this game.
Barron'scover story on Jim Cramer this week is a perfect August cover: beach reading about whether Cramer is a good stock picker.
Cramer and I went to college together and I was a board member at TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM), so I am not unfamiliar with Jim's career.
The Barron's piece starts out by saying the viewer of Cramer's show Mad Money would only have made 12% on Cramer's picks over the last two years. The magazine uses a firm called YourMoneyWatch to determine that. It tracks Cramer's stocks from when he tells viewers to buy them up until he says that they are "sells." In a chart, Barron's shows Cramer's performance against the two year advances of the Dow at 22% and the S&P at 16%.
Cramer has a wide following. His Mad Money show has 138,000 viewing homes according to Nielsen. Several hundred thousand more people read him through products at TheStreet. He is written about in the press several times a month, so Cramer is almost certainly the most widely followed stock guru in the country.
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I'm puzzled by a lot of things about the market, but the ascent of former Major League Baseball All-Star Lenny Dykstra to the throne of options trading pundit is pretty interesting.
TheStreet.com
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Financial journalism is all about breaking news. News is easily researchable and journalists feel comfortable voicing their opinions. But the truth is that most news -- no matter how fabulous a company's PR firm makes it sound -- usually means little to a company's stock (it's more about the market's expectations, something that is not very researchable).
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