While the earnings crunch for this quarter is all but over, there is still plenty of action in the earnings arena this coming week. For instance, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting America's Car Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) and Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) to be among this week's top earnings gainers.
Bentonville, Ark.-based America's Car Mart is expected to post net income of 38 cents per share (up 52.6% from the same period a year ago) on revenue of $73.8 million (up 25.8%). The used car dealer chain has tended in recent quarters toward positive surprises -- by 21 cents per share, or 73.5%, in the previous quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 15%, about the same as the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy CRMT.
Campell is tentatively scheduled to report this week, and the world's biggest soup maker is expected to post net income of 25 cents per share (up 44.0% from a year ago) on revenue of $1.7 billion (up 7.5%). The Camden, N.J.-based company has just missed earnings estimates in the past three quarters. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 7.5%, which is less than the industry average, but about the same as rivals Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) and Heinz (NYSE: HNZ). The analysts' consensus recommendation is currently to buy Campbell.
Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report quarterly results in the first week of June, 2008.
The following companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) up 136.6% (from a loss) to $1.12 per share, on $499.1 million in revenue
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) has launched its important new "Grand Theft Auto IV" franchise and it has done remarkably well. It did not cause a big bump in the firm's stock, which has only moved from $26.62 three weeks ago to $27.10.
The company's one suitor, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), had already taken the shares up from from under $18 with its buyout offer. Most analysts believe that the offer will be extended because Take-Two has resisted a buyout.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, there is a "belief among Take-Two management and some of the company's shareholders that the company deserves a higher offer from EA. "
No matter what Take-Two believes, EA's best move now is probably not to extend the offer but, instead, to walk away. The Take-Two share price would be very likely to move back below $20, which would pressure the company's board to do something to move the share price back up again.
EA's shareholders are ill-served if the company extends its offer. Without a buyer, Take-Two might have to come to the negotiating table and Electronic Arts could get a better deal.
No matter how you slice it, whether you look at GAAP or non-GAAP statistics, Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) kicked it during the quarter. And I mean really kicked it.
Net sales for Q4 set off at warp factor 11, rising 93% to $602.5 million. Earnings per diluted share on a reported basis came in at $0.14, reversing a year-ago loss of $0.05 per share. For the full fiscal year, Activision grew revenues by 92% -- again, sales growth in the 90's! -- to $2.9 billion. Earnings per diluted share were $1.10 in 2008 versus a measly $0.28 in 2007. Take that, Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI)! Activision is truly taking advantage of consoles from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE), and Nintendo Co. Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY). Titles such as Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero, and Transformers drove the results -- like I always say, it's always about the quality of the slate. On an adjusted basis, earnings beat expectations by a whopping $0.12, according to Briefing.com.
I bet EA is really wishing its deal went through for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) right about now! I believe Activision will continue to do well the rest of the year, and I love its fundamentals, but what about the stock? As of this writing, it's up about 3%. If you are looking to trade Activision, I'd probably wait until all the earnings excitement is over and be patient for pullbacks as the market may perceive that everything is priced in at the moment now that the news is out.
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: EastGroup Properties, Take-Two and Calumet Specialty were today's noteworthy downgrades:
After EastGroup (NYSE:EGP) reported slightly higher-than-expected Q1 FFO per share, Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy on valuation. However, the firm still believes that the company's business model and dividend fundamentals are well-positioned.
Citigroup downgraded Take-Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) to Hold from Buy citing balanced risk/reward as the firm does not expect an aggressive competing bid process.
Raymond James downgraded Calumet (NASDAQ:CLMT) to Underperform from Market Perform following the company's reduction in distribution to 45c unit from 63c.
Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) can rock its shareholders just as hard as a blood-spitting Gene Simmons at a Kiss concert. And we all know why -- the Guitar Hero franchise is, simply put, one of the most popular videogames out there, and it is available for all the major console systems from Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT) and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY). It's also a pain in the neck for other publishers such as Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), since they have to put up with the franchise's dominating power. But guess what, the inevitable has come to pass -- Activision is being accused of patent infringement!
Yes, you can't be very popular, you can't rake in millions and millions of dollars in profit for shareholders and expect to get away unscathed. Gibson Guitar, according to this Associated Press piece, believes Guitar Hero infringes on a patent it holds for a rock-concert simulator. The patent apparently goes back to 1999 and it contains a description for a system that uses a 3-D headset in conjunction with a musical playback. Activision decided to file a suit to get a court decision declaring that it is not infringing on any existing patent.
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ: TTWO) rejected Electronic Arts Inc's (NASDAQ: ERTS) unsolicited takeover offer as too low, and now EA is turning hostile, going directly to the shareholders to acquire all outstanding shares for $26 each, the same price originally offered to Take-Two, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The credit crunch has hit three more funds, the Financial Times said. Drake Management, Global Opportunities Capital and Blue River Asset Management have all been forced to suspend investor withdrawals or close down after being faced by turmoil in the credit markets.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the World Wide Web, the UK Times reported that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) may eventually be superseded as the dominant Internet brand by a company that uses the power of next-generation Web technology.
The most recent quarter was good for Boston Beer Co. Inc. (NYSE: SAM), which reported that its fourth-quarter profit more than doubled, and not too bad for Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO), which posted a narrower-than-expected loss for the first quarter.
For the quarter that ended December 29, Boston Beer's net income jumped to $6.8 million, or 46 cents per share, from $2.5 million, or 17 cents per share, in the prior year quarter. Revenue rose 26% to $92.2 million from the same period of 2006. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected earnings of 35 cents per share on revenue of $88.9 million.
The company credited its performance to drinkers trading up to craft beers, as well as increasing retailer and wholesale support for the craft category and for Samuel Adams. The company noted that its Twisted Tea brand also performed well in the quarter.
For the full year, profit grew 24% from a year ago, to $22.5 million, or $1.53 per share, while revenue grew 20% to $341.6 million.
Boston Beer shares rose $2.02, or 6%, to close at $35.81, and continued to rise in after-hours trading.
Most investors do not think of tech companies as being debt-laden. Many became pubic by raising cash in IPOs over the last decade. Any debt they had was paid off with capital raised. The rest stayed on the balance sheet.
A study by Paul Kedrosky written up in Barron's paints a very different picture for some companies. Several large corporations, including Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), and Wipro (NYSE: WIT), have long-term debt-to-equity ratios of over 2x. For some big tech names, the figure is over 6x.
(Unfortunately, Barron's had to pull its piece because Paul's data appears to have been inaccurate.)
Under normal circumstances, this kind of data would be benign. But with the credit markets in crisis, refinancing debt on terms more favorable than firms have currently may be very difficult. Or, if the bond market gets very right, a company like Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM) could get in a real pinch.
There is another side to this. Cash-rich companies like Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), and Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) may be able to shop for bargains. For them to pick up a company and pay its debt down may not be a significant problem.
More tech M&A this year? Almost certainly.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Entertainment software stocks, Luxottica and Hansen Medical were today's noteworthy initiations:
Citigroup initiated Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) with Buy ratings and targets of $75 and $29, respectively; the firm initiated Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) and THQ Inc (NASDAQ: THQI) with Hold ratings and targets of $23 and $34, respectively.
Citigroup also started shares of Luxottica Group (NYSE: LUX) with a Buy rating. The firm believes the company can maintain its dominant market position given its house brands portfolio and early expansion into emerging markets.
Merriman started shares of Hansen Medical (NASDAQ: HNSN) with a Buy rating and thinks the company's Sensei System could radically change the landscape of catheter based surgery. The firm believes the stock can trade to the $34-$41 range in 12-18 months.
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) did not lose as much money for its latest quarter, according to results the company release yesterday evening. Take-Two, the game publisher known for being a staunch defender of graphically violent and disturbing games in the "Grand Theft Auto" series, said that game titles such as "The Darkness" and one based on the newer "Fantastic Four" movie help drive results to a not-as-large-as-expected loss.
The software publisher's net loss for the third-quarter period was $58.5 million ($0.81 per share), which paled in comparison to the year-ago loss of $91.4 million ($1.29 per share). But, with its recently completed Q3 period being the seventh straight with a loss, what are TTWO investors to do? Continue waiting for some kind of turnaround?
In standard, idiotic Wall Street fashion, the company's shares made a gain of 5% after the Q3 results were announced, probably since the loss was less than expected. I'm not sure seven straight quarterly losses would make me bid up the stock -- you? Take-Two did say 2008 earnings would exceed Wall Street estimates, so perhaps that was priced into the uptick.
The release of "Grand Theft Auto IV" in Q4 may give the company the profit boost is desperately needs. Although the publisher has a new management team after years of legal wrangles based on corporate misdeeds and consumer lawsuits, it still has not righted itself -- maybe time is all the company needs. But, how much is too much?
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. beverage sector, ImClone, Starwood Hotels and Marriott International were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Goldman Sachs upgraded the U.S. beverage sector, including Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP), Anheuser Busch Companies (NYSE: BUD), PepsiAmericas Inc (NYSE: PAS) and Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Attractive from Neutral. The firm cited expectations for a stronger 2008, benign commodity cost outlook, better than expected US beer demand, and valuations. Goldman upgraded shares of PepsiCo Inc (NYSE: PEP) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and improving industry fundamentals.
Bear Stearns upgraded ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Outperform from Peer Perform citing positive Flex trial results and the new market opportunity for Erbitux.
Thomas Weisel upgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) and Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) to Market Weight from Underweight based on healthy August trends, credit market may ease concerns over supply growth, and valuations.
While the earnings crunch for this quarter is all but over, there is still plenty of action in the earnings arena this coming week. For instance, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting 
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