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Black Swan guru slams Paulson, Bernanke and Obama

In appearance on CNBC, Black Swan author Nassim Taleb slammed the U.S. government's handling of the financial crisis and argued that none of the systemic problems in the system had been fixed.

"When you have cancer, sometimes it hurts to remove the tumor," he said. "They're not removing the tumor."

"It is a matter of risk and responsibility, and I think the risks that were there before, these problems are still there," he said. "We still have a very high level of debt, we still have leadership that's literally incompetent ..."

Should Obama reappoint Ben Bernanke? Taleb doesn't think so. "Bernanke belongs to a school of economics that is not in synch with the complex system. By having Bernanke there you're rewarding failure."

Meanwhile, three-fourths of investors surveyed recently said that Bernanke has earned another term, but that plays right into Taleb's arguments: by instituting policies that prop up markets, Bernanke has pleased market participants without really having fixed anything long-term.

Check out the video below to watch the whole interview.

Taleb calls the stock market and private equity Ponzi-like

Bestselling author and financial markets guru Nassim Nichola Taleb has a novel idea: Try to make the US economy as different from Bernie Madoff as we can.

Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Taleb said that "We want economic life to be organized to be as distant from that Madoff model as we can." The private equity industry is Ponzi-like because "you rely on new investors to pay off the other ones," Taleb said. "The stock market has some mild Ponzi characteristics. We have to make sure that innocent people are not harmed by this Ponzi-attribute."

Ah. Well that's the role of the SEC, right? Wrong.

"Regulators are fundamentally dumb," Taleb added. "Traders will go around them. I want the system where regulators can be stupid without you and I being harmed by it."

If we're going to try to move away from the Madoff model of economic policy, there are quite a few places we could start, but this one's my favorite: The United States government is buying cars from General Motors (NYSE: GM) to help the company demonstrate viability and secure more government loans.

Or we could take the principled stance and admit that what Madoff is doing isn't different from what Wall Street and the government dose everyday with little fanfare -- and let him get back to work.

Market stumbles on a black swan

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is looking pretty good. In his 2007 book The Black Swan, the futures trader turned philosophy guru warned about the impact that large, fat-tail events can have on financial markets. He has been saying for years that traditional risk management models are inadequate and The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC), Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER), and just about everyone else are probably agreeing with him right about now.

The Black Swan has outsold Alan Greenspan's new book -- a testament to the intelligence of readers. With the meltdown in housing, Taleb is finally getting the media attention her deserves.

The latest issue of Bloomberg Markets has a fantastic profile of him, as does Fortune.

Continue reading Market stumbles on a black swan

Taleb rips modern portfolio theory a new one

When Warren Buffett and Nassim Nicholas Taleb declare something related to investments a pile of nonsense, you best listen up.

In a brilliant column in The Financial Times, Taleb writes that the modern portfolio theory has the "the empirical and scientific validity of astrology (without the aesthetics), yet the lessons are ignored in what is taught to 150,000 business school students worldwide."

He also takes the folks awarding the Nobel Prize in Economics to task for legitimizing these nonsense theories with that prestigious award.

What does all this mean for investors? Most financial advisors/planners/what used to be called brokers use MPT as the basis for constructing your portfolio -- and they charge you big fees for doing this.

If you accept Taleb's argument that it's all a bunch of crap, you've taken the first step toward doing the smartest thing you can do for your financial future: ditch your broker and buy low-cost index mutual funds.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 05:43 AM

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