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Yahoo! Auctions to retire?

I've been getting buzz about major activity dealing with Yahoo!'s (NASDAQ: YHOO) auctions. As of this writing, it's difficult to sort out. I have encountered a site announcement stating that Yahoo! Auctions is closing shop and I have encountered stories that claim Yahoo! Auctions is being purchased by Jack Ma of TaoBao fame. One thing is for sure, something is happening and I'm relatively sure that it's not just a ploy to throw some distraction into the on-again/off-again Microsoft to Yahoo! negotiations. It's clear that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) seeks to join forces with Yahoo! in some manner, and it appears that Yahoo! Auctions are slated for retirement, but at this point all of the other noise is just that -- noise.

For the WSJ's take on the MSFT/YHOO story, and a bushel of public comments, click here.

I'm speculating that the increasing pressure by the IRS toward requiring increased revelation of auction sales statistics may be playing a part in the Yahoo! Auctions closure. It's a given that the taxing authorities aren't going to leave the internet alone. I feel that it will be only a short while before the IRS selects a few "big time" online auction sellers to make examples of in a token tax crack down.

Additionally, we must consider that in November 2007, many internet sales regulations are back up for review. It's time to hold your breath, all you small-time internet retailers. The sheriff's comin' to town.

eBay's rival Alibaba to begin charging fees

I know this is old news, but it came out during the holidays so I thought it's worth a mention in case others, like me, have missed it before. It is also -- I think -- good news for eBay Inc.'s (NASDAQ:EBAY) operations in China. Well, it seems that Alibaba.com, China's largest e-commerce company and eBay's main rival there, will soon also start charging certain fees. (Apparently, giving away services for free isn't a good revenue source).

Specifically, starting February 2007, Alibaba.com (owned 40% by Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) will charge users of its (now) free Alipay online payments service. It will only charge, however, those users who don't do business on Alibaba's auction site, Taobao. The fee Alipay will begin to charge was not disclosed but sources say it will be 1.5% of the total value of each purchase. While Alipay and Taobao contribute less than 20% to Alibaba's revenue, Jack Ma, Alibaba's founder and chairman, hopes this figure would be 30% by 2010.

eBay's online payment system, PayPal, started operating in China last year and it was rumored, especially after eBay's recently announced joint venture with Tom Online Inc. (NASDAQ:TOMO), that PayPal would work on a similar venture. Whitman, eBay's CEO, dismissed the rumor.

Why do I think Alibaba charging fees is good for eBay? Well, right now eBay's main problem in China is fees. eBay competes against free services while it charges its users fees. As more companies come to the realization that they need to charge fees, eBay's position in this potentially growth market could only improve. Of course, this step by Alibaba is small and a far cry from charging full scale fees, or from Taobao charging fees, but it might indicate the beginning of a trend.

eBay and Baidu sign a cross-promotional deal

I think we started talking about eBay, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:EBAY) endeavors in China months ago. Rumors kept surfacing every few months about eBay either getting out of China or making a deal with a local player. Just last week there were reports that Tom.com (NASDAQ:TOMO) and eBay EachNet were close to signing an agreement.

To hear, then, that eBay EachNet and Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) agreed on a partnership isn't surprising and what's more, it makes perfect sense.

With over 60% of the Chinese market, Baidu is China's largest portal and search engine. With this in mind, the cross-promotional partnership could greatly benefit EachNet. Baidu will promote, PayPal Beibao, PayPal's Chinese service, as a preferred payment method while eBay EachNet will use Baidu exclusively for its search advertising. The companies will be testing the search as early as the first quarter; implementing by the second. A special toolbar, co-branded, will also be developed by the two companies.

Despite the fact that on the face of it the deal seems like it would benefit EachNet more than it would Baidu, BIDU shares are up 2.8% while EBAY shares are flat (by 11:30 a.m.). All in all, I'd say this is a positive move for eBay as the company's starting to show a strategy for this market.

Finally, if you recall, rumors of Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) or Yahoo!, Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) acquiring Baidu have also been floating around. If there is any truth to these rumors, this would be weird as Yahoo! holds a stake in eBay's competitor in China, Alibaba's Taobao.

Have Tom.com and eBay China finally signed an agreement?

It seems that only yesterday we talked about these rumors. Actually, it was at the end of September.

Once again the rumors come from a source I'm not sure about, China TechNews.com (I guess that's why they're called rumors). Yet, when this same source reported about the resignation of eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) China, or eBay Eachnet's CEO; a report that ended up being correct.

Now the Internet magazine is reporting (citing Chinese media sources) that Tom Online (NASDAQ:TOMO) has signed an agreement with eBay Eachnet to acquire it with a formal announcement coming soon.

Apparently, someone named Zhou Kaixuan, who is also a shareholder in eBay's Skype (which sounds a little odd to me), was the mediator in the negotiations. That's a pretty specific detail, I'd say.

eBay is denying the rumor.

Well, this doesn't sit well with me at all:

  • First of all, Meg Whitman, eBay's CEO just recently said in the Q3 earnings call that eBay is committed to China.
  • Second, after leaving Japan and having increasingly strong competition from Gmarket in Korea, selling eBay Eachnet would mean eBay is not only leaving China, but the whole of Asia pretty much (well, not India).
  • Third, I also mentioned here the possible difficulties for Skype in China and PayPal already has a problem there with regulations as it cannot be fully owned by foreigners. What does that leave then?

I still hope that the rumors are wrong and that there is a strategy hidden in those sale rumors.

Will eBay sell its China operations?

Yesterday, I waited until I had confirmation of the rumors that eBay China's CEO, Martin Wu, was indeed resigning.

Not a day later, and new reports are starting to surface about eBay China. This one claims that Tom.com, a Hong-Kong company, will soon "announce its takeover of eBay's China division and its PayPal service." That's according to a Chinese newspaper, the 21st Century Business Herald. The Tom Group is already distributing Skype in China.

eBay has been facing fierce competition in China from Alibaba's Taobao. With Taobao offering free listings while eBay Eachnet charges a fee, eBay China was losing market share fast. Now, with new Chinese regulation limiting foreign investment in online payment systems, it seems that eBay is quickly trying to improve its position in China.

A commenter in last night's post about China, claims to be close to the situation. He reassured me that my concern with the new CEO of eBay China is unwarranted since he was put there simply to facilitate and "manage the integration/transition of eBay China to its new ownership, which will either be Tencent or Tom.com." If that's true, a numbers guy for the job does make more sense.

Does this mean a withdrawal of eBay from China altogether? I find it hard to believe. As Meg Whitman, eBay's CEO, said before, the Chinese market is the one with the most growth potential. Why would eBay withdraw from that market?

Rumors are rumors and should be taken with a grain of salt. Perhaps the negotiations aren't for a takeover but more for a partnership -- one that would be similar to the Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), Alibaba relationship. That would make more sense and would definitely help eBay get a better hold of the immense Chinese market.

Last I checked, eBay shares were up more than 4%, trading at $27.30. It does seem then that there is some truth to the rumors after all. The question is, what truth.

Can't decide on eBay? Neither can analysts

Yesterday I voiced some concerns regarding the overall growth of eBay.  Apparently, I am not the only one.  Analysts across the board have mixed sentiments on eBay in general and its growth potential in particular.  UBS initiated coverage with a "Neutral" rating and a $35 12-month price target, while RBC maintained its "sector perform" rating and a $42 price target.  All analysts are concerned with core markets growth but agree the company has long-term potential.

eBay worked hard to bring about new features and initiatives.  This week eBay added  wikis and blogs to its site as well as a "Skype Me" button that offers a free service which allows buyers and sellers to interact by voice or chat for real time information.  The other new feature - eBay Express, received mixed reviews. However, Analysts doubt that the new features and initiatives will do anything to the bottom line, at least in the short-term.

In addition, Google (GOOG) asked a few eBay sellers to test Google's own payment system, or GBuy, that competes directly with eBay's payment system PayPal and is scheduled to launch June 28.

And as if that wasn't enough, Whitman herself can't decide if Yahoo (YHOO) is a friend or foe.  eBay and Yahoo announced late May that they would cooperate on online advertising and payments as well as searches and other initiatives. The cooperation is limited to the US market though. Yahoo actually owns 40% of Alibaba.com (ABB.YY), which competes with eBay in China through Taobao.  Both Alibaba.com and Yahoo were in Vegas during the three day eBay Live conference.  Yahoo even had a booth on eBay's floor while Alibaba lured eBay power sellers to their convention.

EBay's stock is currently down more than 1.5%.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+132.7910,450.95
NASDAQ+29.972,176.01
S&P 500+14.861,106.24

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 04:29 AM

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