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E-Trade Still Speculative After Q1

E-Trade earningsE*Trade (ETFC), an online broker whose colleagues include Charles Schwab (SCHW) and TD Ameritrade (AMTD), is a low-priced stock. It closed on Wednesday at $1.82, representing a rise of 2.8%; the move was backed by strong volume. The company reported first-quarter earnings yesterday after the bell. What should we make of the results?

According to MarketWatch, things seem to be improving. A loss of 2 cents per share compared very favorably to the loss of 41 cents per share booked in the year-ago period. As for estimates, the analysts were thinking that a loss of 3 cents per share was in the offing.

Continue reading E-Trade Still Speculative After Q1

TD Ameritrade Gives More-of-the-Same Q2 Outlook

TD Ameritrade (AMTD - option chain) stock is trading lower today after the company said its second-quarter earnings "are shaping up much like" earnings in the first quarter. AMTD also presented trading data that was very much a mixed bag, as trading volumes were down in February compared to January, but total assets were larger. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged play on AMTD.

This morning, AMTD opened at $18.50. So far today the stock has hit a high of $19.03 and a low of $18.35. As of 11:45, AMTD is trading at $18.93, up $0.13 (0.7%). The chart for AMTD looks bullish and S&P gives AMTD a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Continue reading TD Ameritrade Gives More-of-the-Same Q2 Outlook

Chasing Value: E-Trade, a word of caution

Look before you leap! All year long rumors have been swirling around that E*TRADE (ETFC) was on the auction block being prepared for an acquisition by a bigger fish interested in its customers and superior trading platform. I have not used E-TRADE so I do not have first hand experience. However, this has been acknowledged broadly and I have received very positive comments from regular users when I have written about it.

The leading suitor seems to be TD AmeriTrade Holding (AMTD), with Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) mentioned as perhaps having similar but less conspicuous interest. For Schwab it may be as much about keeping E-TRADE out of a competitors hands as chasing the business.

Continue reading Chasing Value: E-Trade, a word of caution

E*Trade loses less than expected in third quarter -- is this a victory?

E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) is a well-known brand in the broker space. It competes vigorously with the other giants, TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) and Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW). To be honest, if I were looking for investment ideas in this sector, I would probably begin my search with the latter two. It's difficult to put E*Trade on the list. The company got in trouble during the financial crisis because it was exposed to the mortgage industry. It has now become, in my opinion, a speculative play on a return to glory.

The latest earnings report shows what I'm talking about. For the third quarter, E*Trade lost, on a GAAP basis, 66 cents per share from continuing operations, wider than the year-ago loss of 60 cents per share from continuing operations. After adjusting for an item related to debt extinguishment, the current red ink is equal to 5 cents per share.

Continue reading E*Trade loses less than expected in third quarter -- is this a victory?

TD Ameritrade earnings drop but tops expectations

Earnings are rolling in on this fine Tuesday morning, with many companies reporting. One of those is TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD), which stepped into the earnings spotlight and reported fourth-quarter earnings of 26 cents per share, topping the consensus estimate by four cents per share.

Quarterly revenue came in at $657.9 million, which is 1.3% better than a year ago. Looking ahead, the online brokerage forecast full-year 2010 earnings to come in between $1.10 and $1.40 per share. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2010 is $1.05, so the shares could see a bit of a boost on the forecast. AMTD's quarterly earnings fell 8.8% compared to a year earlier, but the company did post new highs in average client trades per day and new net assets.

Continue reading TD Ameritrade earnings drop but tops expectations

E*Trade loses more money -- why would I want to own this stock?

I know, I know. You look at the recent performace of E*Trade's (NASDAQ: ETFC) shares and you say to yourself, man, I've got to play this stock and make some return! Sure, E*Trade shares have doubled since the first of the year. But then the earnings hit the fan, my trading friends, and that double suddenly disappeared.

The brokerage reported a Q1 loss that was wider than the year-ago number. E*Trade lost 41 cents per share versus a loss of 20 cents per share in 2008. According to this source, that was a penny worse than what Wall Street was bracing itself for.

Continue reading E*Trade loses more money -- why would I want to own this stock?

Closing Bell: Investors buy earnings rather than flee pay caps (CAT, GM, JEF, MRK, AMTD)

Despite the notion that lawmakers are considering executive compensation pay caps for those companies which may invest in the $1 trillion PPIP, the markets did not turn against Pennsylvania Ave. There were not really any major economic data and shares bounced off lows after traders determined that the bar was being set very low.

Here are today's closing bell levels (unofficial close):

Dow 7,969.56 +127.83 (1.63%)
S&P 500 850.08 +17.69 (2.13%)
Nasdaq 1,643.85 +35.64 (2.22%)

TOP 10 ANALYST CALLS

Continue reading Closing Bell: Investors buy earnings rather than flee pay caps (CAT, GM, JEF, MRK, AMTD)

Superbowl ad won't save E*Trade

Discount broker E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) will run its famous "talking baby" TV ad during the Superbowl. It won't help the failing company. The stock is still a "sell."

E*Trade shares change hands at $1.18. That is down from a 52-week high of $5.79. For the fourth quarter of last year, the company reported a net loss of $276 million, or $0.50 per share. And, E*Trade's operating interest income, a key measurement of its health, keeps dropping. The firm said it had applied for money from the TARP but admitted there was no guarantee it would be successful in securing that funding.

Continue reading Superbowl ad won't save E*Trade

E*Trade misses in Q4, but stock rises anyway

E Trade Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC), which competes with TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: AMTD) and Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW), is doing splendidly today. As I write this, the stock is up well over 15%. But I would not touch this one with a ten-foot pole, as they say.

According to this article, E*Trade reported a quarterly loss on Tuesday of $0.50 per share. While that was a lot better than the $3.98 per-share loss reported in last year's Q4, it wasn't enough to beat expectations. Wall Street was hoping for a loss of $0.24 per share. E*Trade said in its press release that daily average revenue trades increased 18% and that 97,000 new accounts were captured. While both of those stats are impressive to a certain degree, an investor must keep in mind that E*Trade is a complicated story. The company really screwed itself by exposing its shareholders to so much financial risk; sure, that might be hindsight now, but it nevertheless is true. And with all the loan provisions and all the issues with the company's involvement with applying for the government's TARP initiative, etc., I can tell you that I absolutely would not want to play around with this stock.

Continue reading E*Trade misses in Q4, but stock rises anyway

Options Update: TD AmeriTrade volatility up into accretive buyout of Thinkorswim

Thinkorswim (NASDAQ: SWIM) will be acquired by TD AmeriTrade (NASDAQ: AMTD). At closing, each shares of SWIM will be exchanged for $3.34 in cash and 0.3980 of an AMTD share. SWIM January 5 straddle closed at $1.00, February 5 straddle closed at $1.50. SWIM overall option implied volatility of 78 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

AMTD says it "expects the transaction to be accretive by approximately three to seven percent of fiscal 2010 GAAP earnings and 10 to 15 percent 12 months following the completed integration." AMTD January option implied volatility is at 68, February is at 73; above its 26-week average of 67 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

OptionXpress (NASDAQ: OXPS) closed at $13.32. OXPS January option implied volatility is at 64, February is at 59; near its 26-week average of according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options Update: Capital liquidity providers volatility elevated into Madoff arrest (NDAQ, NYX, SCHW, AMTD)

Nasdaq (NASDAQ: NDAQ) closed at $23.80. Bernard Madoff of Bernard Madoff Investment Securities LLC, was arrested by Federal agents because his investment advisory business was a "giant Poinzi scheme" reports the Wall Street Journal. NDAQ January option implied volatility of 85 is above its 26-week average of 70 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) closed at $25.98. NYX January option implied volatility of 97 is above its 26-week average of 72 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) closed at $16.98. SCHW January option implied volatility of 99 is above its 26-week average of 61 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

TD AmeriTrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) closed at $12.92. AMTD January option implied volatility of 82 is above its 26-week average of 60 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

E*Trade: Don't trade it!

If there is definitely one stock to avoid these days, it's E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC). I went back and forth on it over the summer, wondering if it was worthy of a trade at certain points, but after the broker's Q3 earnings report, I just don't have any good feelings about it right now.

Total net revenue declined over 21% to $377.7 million. The net loss per share from continuing operations on a diluted basis plummeted over 300% to $0.60. E*Trade, as we all know, has been a victim of the whole financial debacle. It's provision for loan losses was $517.8 million in the third quarter. This compares to a provision of $186.5 million in the previous year's similar quarter.

E*Trade states in its release that it is trying to further reduce its exposure to risk and it's keen on shoring up the balance sheet. Good attitude, I suppose. Also, daily average revenue trades for Q3 were up 7%. But it doesn't mean anything. This was a terrible quarter. The data is both horrible and telling.

It's a simple proposition for me: stay far away from E*Trade. Sure, there will come a time when the stock might make for a good investment, but that's a long way off. Technically, the stock is weak. And the broker will be unwinding its exposure to the financial markets for a while.

Continue reading E*Trade: Don't trade it!

E*Trade tanks after missing estimates

Talk about an interesting day for E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC). The broker, a competitor of TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) and Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW), reported Q2 earnings on Tuesday after the market closed. E*Trade saw its stock close up on the day by almost 11% on better-than-average volume ahead of the press release. Then, after hours, the stock was down over 15% as investors digested the data. It was a wild ride indeed, and I'm glad I wasn't on it.

E*Trade saw its total net revenue decrease by 20% to around $532 million. The loss per share came in at 19 cents. According to this Reuters article, Wall Street was hoping the loss would only be 14 cents per share.

E*Trade isn't out of the woods yet, and I think it'll be a while before it fully turns itself around and recovers from the financial crisis it's been suffering. In fact, the release mentioned how the broker lost value on investments in preferred equities of Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage (NYSE: FRE) in July and that the liquidation of the investments will impact the third quarter. Yeah, I'm sure shareholders of E*Trade love to hear the names Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac thrown around in the earnings report. They're sure to warm the heart.

At one time, I thought E*Trade was worth entering, and it obviously might have been worth trading ahead of the earnings (if you were quick to get out before the after-hours, that is). Now, however, I'm reticent to put any new money to work in the financial sector. It's going to be a while before the financial malaise finally lifts. Since E*Trade is still losing a lot of money and missing estimates, I see no reason to allocate any investment funds here. The stock has become too speculative, and if you want to speculate, I'm sure you can find safer sectors to place some bets.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

TD Ameritrade's revenues may have declined, but its earnings traded up

TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: AMTD) reported earnings for its second fiscal quarter yesterday, and they were pretty decent for the most part -- some might have thought that investors were completely shunning the market because of all the volatility going on, but TD Ameritrade's results show that a broker can still make money in such a challenging climate.

Even so, overall revenues declined 3% to $623 million. While transaction-based revenues also declined, it should be noted that average client trades per day did increase 23% to 312,000. That's an important measure when talking about brokers such as TD Ameritrade, or competitors such as E TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) and The Charles Schwab Corporation (NASDAQ: SCHW). Earnings per share really shined, rising 35% to $0.31 per diluted share.

TD Ameritrade is sticking to its earnings guidance of a "midpoint forecast of $1.32." Of course, I'd like to see raised guidance, but a reaffirmation is certainly better than a reduction in guidance. Besides, I have to go back to the challenging climate concern -- if TD is happy to keep the forecast right now, then this is definitely positive. Investors would probably do well to at least investigate the brokers. When the economy snaps back, they should rally higher from these levels. TD Ameritrade, while not right up against a 52-week high, actually isn't that far from it, interestingly enough.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Analyst downgrades: GS, LEH and AMTD

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Goldman Sachs, Lehman and TD AmeriTrade were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • UBS downgraded Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to Neutral from Buy. The firm believes liquidity problems and de-leveraging in the capital markets will get worst before they get better; UBS also downgraded Bank of New York (NYSE: BK), State Street (NYSE: STT) and Invesco (NYSE: IVZ) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Following Bear Stearns' (NYSE: BSC) downfall, UBS also downgraded Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) to Neutral from Buy and said the company could be the "next on the list" for the confidence/liquidity crisis by some investors.
  • TD AmeriTrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) was downgraded to Neutral from buy at UBS and to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings. Friedman Billings downgraded TD Ameritrade citing slowing client activity as well as margin compression.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • JP Morgan cut Portugal Telecom (NYSE: PT) to Underweight from Neutral.
  • Goldman downgraded Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) and Holly Corp (NYSE: HOC) to Neutral from Buy and removed Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) from its Conviction Buy List.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 06:17 PM

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