TechnicalAnalysis posts
Posted Jun 12th 2009 10:00AM by Steven Halpern
Filed under: Forecasts, S and P 500, DJIA, Recession, Financial Crisis
Despite a strongly bearish long-term outlook, technicians Stephen Hochberg and Robert Prechter continue to see near-term upside for the market.
In The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a specialty service focused on a form of technical analyst known as Elliott wave theory, they explain, "Optimism is definitely on the increase, but it is not yet as the exteme that typically accompanies the end of a Primary degree rally.
"So notwithstanding near-term gyrations, the Dow should rise to the initial target, which remains in the 9,000 to 10,000 range.
Continue reading Elliott wave still rising: A technical outlook
Posted Jun 5th 2009 11:45AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Marketing and advertising, China, Options, Kraft Foods'A' (KFT), DJIA
In an interview with Reuters, Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) reported that it expects sales in China to gain 10% in 2009. "This is one of the times when I love being in the food business. This is a market that, whatever happens in the economy, people still eat. And we have a range of products to serve everybody's needs," explained Lorna Davis, the company's president of operations in China. "Opportunities here are just huge," she added.
The projected 10% sales growth for 2009 roughly corresponds with Kraft's 2008 sales results in China. The food firm plans to maintain its healthy pace of expansion by way of a 20% boost to advertising spending. "If you want to build your business here and you don't spend more than 10 percent of your total revenue on advertising, you are not going to grow," asserted Davis.
Continue reading Kraft Foods hikes ad budget to maintain growth in China
Posted Jun 4th 2009 12:30PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Apple Inc (AAPL), Analyst initiations, Options
Last night, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) announced plans to build its first East Coast data center. The facility will be located in North Carolina, which recently enacted tax breaks to lure the popular tech company, but no specific site has yet been selected. Apple is expected to pour more than $1 billion into the project over the next nine years.
Apple spokeswoman Susan Lundgren declined to say how the data center will be used. In a statement, the tech firm said only, "We're looking forward to building a new data center in North Carolina, and we appreciate the efforts of Gov. Perdue and state lawmakers who helped make it possible." Construction is expected to begin soon.
In other Apple news today, the company is attracting bullish attention from Societe Generale. The brokerage firm started coverage of AAPL with a Buy rating and a $160 price target.
Continue reading Apple sets sights on North Carolina, scores Buy recommendation
Posted Jun 3rd 2009 11:00AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Amer Intl Group (AIG), Options, Financial Crisis
Reports today indicate that American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) may need yet another bailout from the federal government. This time, The New York Post states that AIG will likely require additional government guarantees before it can successfully sell its International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC) aircraft leasing business.
"Already, the government has agreed to guarantee $5 billion of debt, but those remaining in the auction now want either more government aid or support from airline manufacturers," reports the Post. The newspaper notes that ILFC carries a $30 billion debt load, portions of which will soon mature, along with $50 billion in assets. The unit, which has been up on the auction block since last September, has a book value of $7.5 billion.
AIG shares slipped more than 6% this morning to trade at $1.46, extending their 52-week swoon of 95.7%. After smacking into resistance from its 10-month moving average, the stock is now struggling to maintain a foothold atop its recently supportive 10-week trendline.
Even though the security is trading fairly low on the charts already, some traders are betting on continued losses from AIG. Despite a 16.4% drop in short interest during the most recent reporting period, shorted shares still account for a hefty 9.7% of the stock's available float. Plus, peak put open interest in the June series lies at the 2 strike, with 17,975 contracts in residence.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Jun 2nd 2009 11:00AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Citigroup Inc. (C), Options, DJIA, Financial Crisis
Downtrodden Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), which received its walking papers from Dow Jones on Monday, has informed five of its former executives that they'll no longer be receiving severance payouts. According to a report today in The Wall Street Journal [subscription required], recently departed executives Kevin Kessinger and Michael Klein will be among those affected by the decision.
Already, Citi has doled out approximately half of the $100 million it pledged to these former execs. The U.S. Treasury hasn't demanded that the severance payments be halted, but sources close to the bailed-out bank say that Citi's top brass "[want] to avoid even the possibility of a public backlash over the money."
Even though it would seem that Citi is finally getting a handle on the concept of money management -- or public relations, at the very least -- investors are hardly cheering. The stock has given up more than 3% today, extending its year-to-date drop of 45%. In fact, the shares are currently in position to finish the session below their 10-day and 20-day moving averages, which would mark the first breach of this double-barreled support since May 1.
Continue reading Citigroup suspends severance pay, battles technical resistance
Posted May 29th 2009 12:30PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Forecasts, Good news
OmniVision Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: OVTI) stepped into the earnings spotlight last night, with the company reporting a fourth-quarter loss of $20.1 million, or 40 cents per share.
Excluding items, the quarterly loss would have been 30 cents per share. Revenue for the period fell 47% to $89.1 million, while gross margin contracted from 27.2% to 17%. Analysts were expecting a wider loss of 46 cents per share on slimmer revenue of $68.3 million.
Looking ahead, OVTI expects a fiscal first-quarter adjusted loss of seven cents to 16 cents per share, with revenue ranging between $90 million and $100 million. The forecast was unexpectedly upbeat; analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting a first-quarter loss of 23 cents per share on $74 million in revenue.
Continue reading Upbeat outlook from OmniVision Technologies sparks short-squeeze rally
Posted May 26th 2009 11:40AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Options
The shares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) have started the week on a rocky note. Not only did Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. downgrade the stock from Market Perform to Underperform, the alternative energy issue was also the topic of a skeptical Barron's article over the weekend.
In a note to clients, brokerage firm Friedman cited weak polysilicon prices and the stock's overrich valuation for its downgrade. FSLR closed last Friday at $191.72 per share, compared to Friedman's price target of $110.
Meanwhile, the cautious Barron's write up [subscription required] observes that the Intersolar trade show begins Wednesday in Munich, and pits FSLR against many lower-priced rivals. "One leading customer says it will ditch First Solar's 'thin-film' panels if crystalline silicon alternatives keep getting cheaper.
That seems likely. Silicon prices are expected to drop another 30% by year end. First Solar profits -- and its shares -- could get cut in half," commented the financial paper.
Continue reading First Solar gaps lower on downgrade, bearish Barron's article
Posted May 7th 2009 11:15AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Employees, duPont(E.I.)deNemours (DD), Options, DJIA
Dow component DuPont (NYSE: DD) said today that it will eliminate another 2,000 jobs as part of its ongoing plan to cut costs. Previously, the blue chip slashed 2,500 employees and 4,000 contractor positions from its payroll back in December.
The company will take a second-quarter pre-tax restructuring charge of $340 million to $390 million as a result of the job cuts, though DuPont said it will save $225 million by the end of 2010.
The news pressured DD to a loss of 3% within the first hour of today's trading. The stock's pullback could potentially find a floor near its 20-day moving average; in collaboration with its 10-day counterpart, this trendline has guided the shares higher since early March.
Continue reading DuPont to swallow 2Q charge after cutting 2,000 additional jobs
Posted May 6th 2009 10:10AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports, Options, Commodities
Coal concern Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE: ANR) has spiked more than 20% today on the heels of its first-quarter earnings report. The company reported a 61% improvement in net income, which rose to $41 million, or 58 cents per share, compared to $25.5 million, or 39 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2008.
Revenue for the period inched higher to $424.4 million. ANR's profit easily exceeded Wall Street's expectations; analysts were looking for a profit of 48 cents per share on $515.5 million.
ANR gapped higher with the sound of the opening bell today, extending its year-to-date advance of 56.4%. If the stock keeps climbing, it could soon have a chance to challenge resistance from its 10-month moving average, which is currently hovering in the $33 neighborhood.
Continue reading Alpha Natural Resources crushes profit estimates, spikes 20%
Posted May 5th 2009 11:10AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Bad news, Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Options, Agriculture
Agricultural issue Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) is sharply lower in today's trading after falling short of Wall Street's earnings expectations. The company confessed to a 98% slide in third-quarter net income, thanks to hefty investment losses and a weak pricing environment.
ADM reported a profit of $8 million, or 1 penny per share, compared to its year-ago results of $517 million, or 80 cents per share. Investment losses for the period totaled 36 cents per share. Revenue for the quarter tumbled 21% to $14.8 billion, impacted by strength in the U.S. dollar and softer commodity prices. As a result, gross margin contracted from 6.2% to 4.4%.
Continue reading Quarterly profit plummets 98% at Archer Daniels Midland
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