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Comfort Zone Investing: Apple shows how it's done

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) just reported unbelievably good earnings in an unbelievably bad economy. Fiscal fourth quarter results were up 46% compared to the same quarter last year. Investors liked what they saw and pushed the stock over $200 a share in after market trading. How can Apple deliver great earnings while almost everyone else is struggling?

Investors can learn a lot from studying Apple and applying it to all their stocks. While it is a high tech company, it has attributes that all great companies share. Here are some of them.

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Comfort Zone Investing: The power of one number - the P/E ratio

There's a number almost synonymous with investing. It's the P/E ratio. That's Price to Earnings. It's only one number, but it's a powerful one, one that can tell an investor quite a bit about how other investors value a stock. Never buy a stock based on one number, but a good number to start with is the P/E.

The P/E is calculated just like it's spelled. Take the price of the stock (P) and divide it by the last full year's earnings (E). That's what's called the Trailing P/E. It's the most common P/E ratio, the one most investors ask about when they inquire: "What's the P/E?" of a stock.

A second P/E is the Forward P/E. It's the one that uses the projected earnings for next year as the denominator. If analysts are right in their projections for a stock's earnings, this P/E will give you a reading as to the "cost" of buying a stock based on future results.

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Comfort Zone Investing: The glass isn't half empty -- it's half full

Summertime....and the livin' ain't easy. The economy's in worse shape than the administration thought, even after pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into it. More people are losing their jobs. Unemployment's at 8.5% and according to many economists will go higher, maybe above 10% before the layoffs stop. Gas at the pump has gone above $3 again, even with the price of oil starting to show some weakness. Home prices are still going down and foreclosures continue to rise. Defaults on consumer credit is at all-time highs. When will it ever end?

Don't know. No one does. But that isn't a reason to stop investing, to quit preparing your portfolio for the next big upward move that will surely come. You doubt that? Just look at a price chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 100 years. It's full of periods where the line is going down, only to be followed by large increases on the upside. Unless the whole capitalist system is gone forever, history will repeat. There will be an upward swing to this market, and it's more likely sooner rather than later.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: The glass isn't half empty -- it's half full

Comfort Zone Investing: Is it too late ... or too early to buy stocks?

The stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, sharply rebounded from its low of 6440 in March of this year. Currently, as this is written, the notable index is hovering around 8400. That's an increase of 30%. Not bad for two months of trading. While the average is made up of only 30 stocks, those 30 stocks are some of the best. There are also some real losers, such as General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Citigroup (NYSE: C). But for the most part, the index contains the strongest industries with some of the strongest stocks. With that kind of recovery already in place, is it too late to buy stocks or is this just the start of a major rally?

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Is it too late ... or too early to buy stocks?

Comfort Zone Investing: Market realities

There are always a lot of emotions involved with investing. Most of the time they're fear or greed. Recently it's been outright terror. That's because large amounts of money have been lost. Most indexes for stocks were down between 40% and 50% in 2008.

In the month of March, we saw a very nice rally. There's Spring and hope in the air. But here's the reality: the market is still down 13.3% for the quarter, its sixth straight quarter of losses. The Dow last fell in six consecutive quarters in the period ending on June 30, 1970. It was the worst first quarter in percentage terms since 1939, when the average fell 14.81%. One robin does not make Spring. One month does not make a rally.

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Comfort Zone Investing: Time to buy bank stocks?

Bank stocks are well off their bottoms. Bank Of America (NYSE: BAC) traded at $2.53 on Feb. 20 of this year. Now it's $7.90 as I check the latest quote. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was down to $7.80 on March 5. You'll have to pay $17 as of this writing. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) touched $14.96 before bouncing to $28. And Citigroup (NYSE: C) (hopefully) bottomed at $.97 on March 5, then ran to $3 as I write this. Is it finally time to start buying bank stocks?

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Comfort Zone Investing: Are these stocks bargains?

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) at $8.75. Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) at $1.40. Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) at $4.75. General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) at $1.90. Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) at $1.75. These numbers don't seem possible, but they are. If you're tempted to buy any of them or many other big names (like American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) or Ambac or Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH)) that seem to be selling for prices never imagined, here's some advice: Know that you don't know enough to make an intelligent investment decision.


Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Are these stocks bargains?

Comfort Zone Investing: That pinball feeling

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Lately I've looked in vain for good news. I mean news that has some substance, that would make a real difference to an investor. I can't find any. In fact, I feel like a pinball, bouncing from one rubber post to another, each one accelerating the downward, inevitable path toward the black hole at the bottom of the board.

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Comfort Zone Investing: Why some good banks won't take TARP money

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

TARP stands for Troubled Asset Relief Program. You may have heard about it, how $194.2 billion has already been given out by the agency to 317 institutions in 43 states and Puerto Rico. The Treasury is in charge and estimates that 25% of about 8,000 banks may apply for funds. But not all of them will take it. What should investors think about a bank they own that qualifies but doesn't take the money?

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Why some good banks won't take TARP money

Comfort Zone Investing: Should you even be buying stocks?

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Two emotions run the stock market: fear and greed. We've seen greed hit its apex in the late 90's when some stocks with profits were selling at more than 100 times their earnings per share. Others had no earnings at all but lots of "eyeballs" (a new metric for dot com stocks). Unfortunately those eyeballs never got monetized, and many of those wonder stocks are names long forgotten. In hindsight, it's easy to ask: why would anybody buy those stocks?

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Should you even be buying stocks?

Comfort Zone Investing: The new rule of investing

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Warren Buffett said that the two rules of investing are: #1: Don't lose money, and #2: Don't forget rule number one.

He then explained some more basics: When you buy a share do so as though you are becoming a partner in the business; Make sure you use the market to serve you, not to instruct you; And before buying be certain there is a sufficient margin of safety, a cushion of comfort between the price you are paying and the value of the company.

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Comfort Zone Investing: Hey! This is America

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Several responses to my columns on 2009 expectations and how to invest for the year have been totally negative. They claim I'm too optimistic. The only way to survive is to buy gold. America is finished. The new administration is socialism. The American capitalist system is done. These readers are not students of history.

America is built on hopes and dreams, fueled by Darwinian survivors of other countries with enough energy and nerve to come to a land of freedom where their dreams can become real. We have been peopled by brave and strong immigrants who gave up everything to have the chance for a better life for themselves and their children.

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Comfort Zone Investing: Six smart ideas for stocks in 2009

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

For a better investing year in 2009, think about championship basketball. Winners at every level have one thing in common: defense. It's defense that wins rings. And this year, in the stock market, defense will keep you alive. It will be the kind of year where making a little money makes you a winner. Think defensively until there are clear signs that the economy is improving.

First, keep your expectations low. No one knows when the current economic cycle will end and begin to heal. What we do know is that all indicators keep going lower: housing starts, employment, consumer spending, housing prices. While the market discounts good news well in advance (some 6 to 9 months ahead of the real numbers), there's no indication from any front that better days are ahead. We know the new administration will spend money to create jobs so more spending power will be in the economy. We know there will most likely be tax breaks for companies to encourage production and hiring. But none of that is in place. Investors have to wait and see how and if these develop and what effect they will have on the economy and on stocks. It might take all year. Or longer. If it does, the stock market won't be doing too much.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Six smart ideas for stocks in 2009

Comfort Zone Investing: 2009 predictions

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he offers advice to investors who are just getting started.

It is the best of times. It is the worst of times. I'm paraphrasing a little from Mr. Dickens, but his sage words still apply. How could this be the best of times? We'll come back to that. First, let's look at the worst scenario for next year.

The Worst:
More mortgages default. With Option ARMs and Alt-A loans and NINJA loans (No Income, No Job or Assets), there are going to be more defaults coming in 2009. That's unavoidable. As loans that were made with teaser rates (rates lower than currently charged so some borrowers could qualify) move up from teaser levels, some borrowers won't be able to make payments because they've lost their jobs or their income isn't sufficient. Expect more credit problems, both in residential and commercial mortgages. Credit card defaults will grow.

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Comfort Zone Investing: Is your dividend safe?

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Many stocks are paying dividends that give very high yields. It's tempting to buy a stock based solely on the yield, say 5% or more, when bank CD's are giving 2% or 3% without any potential for capital gains (or losses). But looking at just one number is never good enough. If you're after income, then by all means consider stocks, but be sure the dividend is safe.

First, look at the relative yield. In today's market, the average yield for Value Line's universe of 1,700 stocks is 3.6%. That universe includes almost every actively traded and/or large cap stock so it's a good benchmark. That means, on average, stocks that pay dividends are paying out a yield of 3.6%. As with all averages, it doesn't mean much for the individual stock you may be investigating, but it does show an average yield to which you can compare your stock's yield.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Is your dividend safe?

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 05:21 PM

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