TedAllrich posts
FeedPosted Mar 13th 2010 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Comfort Zone Investing
We'd all like to know the secrets for buying winning stocks. Here's the first one: there is no secret. No one formula and certainly no one data point is THE answer to finding the next hot stock. That isn't how investing works. But there are certain numbers that will help increase the odds of finding a stock that may go up. Here are some that will help.
Earnings. In real estate, the three most important words are location, location, location. In successful stock investing, they are earnings, earnings, earnings. Ultimately, all investing comes down to earnings. Earnings are what investors own. They contribute to Book Value (see below). They are the reason anyone invests in a stock: to reap the future rewards of a successful company. Earnings growth is what an investor wants to see. The stronger the better. Companies increasing earnings by more than 10% each year for the last three years have been exceptional as the economy has diminished. Look for companies that can grow earnings well above average no matter what the economy does.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Four Powerful Numbers for Picking Stock Winners
Posted Mar 6th 2010 10:00AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Ford Motor (F), Comfort Zone Investing
Many stocks have rallied significantly over the last year. In fact, if you bought almost any stock on March 9, 2009, you would have made a great deal of money. That was the low point for almost all stocks as the market gave in for its final capitulation and beat most of us over the head one last time with the heaviest frying pan it could find.
Stocks like Beazer Homes (BZH) and Ford (F) were selling for 24 cents and $1.65 last year. Other great bargains (in hindsight) were everywhere. It was as if the tree of stocks had been hit by a great gust of wind and all its fruit was lying on the ground. Everywhere you looked there were stocks selling for unbelievable prices. Of course, everywhere else you looked there was doom and gloom, ever increasing arguments that screamed "sell," not "buy." The world was definitely ending; capitalism was dead; there was no hope.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: When to Sell a Stock
Posted Feb 27th 2010 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Cisco Systems (CSCO), General Electric (GE), Home Depot (HD), Nordstrom, Inc (JWN), Comfort Zone Investing, Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)
Let's see now. Consumers are more pessimistic this month than last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average loses 100 points on the news. Unemployment is better in one month, worse in another. The DJIA goes up on the good news, down on the bad. Home Depot has a good quarter, raises its dividend, and forecasts a better year for 2010. The stock goes up 50 cents on a day when the market is down 100 points. Other stocks are light on revenues. They go down 10% or more.
The market always sends mixed messages. There has never been a time when all the news is good. That's impossible. If all the news is all good, it means the economy is really thriving. Then investors worry about things being too strong, afraid that inflation will come back, so they sell stocks. When things seem totally awful (see 2008 and 2009 as examples), some investors see nothing but upside potential (see Warren Buffett and General Electric (GE) purchases), and they buy stocks. Most of the time, however, the news is good and bad. There is never a straight upward or downward line for the DJIA or for any stock for a long period of time unless the stock goes out of business, then the line is flat.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Keeping Cool with the Market's Mixed Messages
Posted Feb 20th 2010 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), General Electric (GE), Comfort Zone Investing
If investing were only about numbers, then the math Ph.D.s would have all the money. But they don't. While numbers are very important and provide the majority of an investment decision, other elements come into play that are critical to any stock's success. They're hard to find sometimes but always worth the effort.
If you can discover these elements in a stock and great numbers, too, you've got all the odds for investing success in your favor.
The number one, most important piece of the investing puzzle is management. Management is everything. It's where all ideas begin and execution of them is implemented. Management can turn around a bad company and make it great. Management can take a good idea and turn it into a successful business.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Successful Stocks -- More Than Numbers
Posted Jan 30th 2010 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America (BAC), Comfort Zone Investing
A rose is a rose is a rose. Thank you Gertrude Stein for that observation. But a bank is not a bank is not a bank. That's because not all banks are serving the same market, nor are they all offering the same loans. If you're going to invest in banks, be sure you understand who they're lending to and what kind of loans they have on the books.
The first group of banks is community banks. As you might guess, they serve specific communities, usually within a fairly narrow geographic region. They rely on that region for their deposits with which they'll make loans, and loan demand. In other words, they serve a well-defined community. They know all the neighbors, participate in the local activities, have a high profile, hopefully do good things for a community.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Not All Banks Are Equal
Posted Dec 12th 2009 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America (BAC), FedEx Corp (FDX), Wells Fargo (WFC), Comfort Zone Investing
Last week I wrote about five things to fear in the stock market, going from the price of gold and what it portends to federal government programs and their consequences. This week, let's look at reasons to be positive about the stock market and what they might signal for 2010.
Employment is getting a little bit better. Nothing to get excited about yet, but still, the worst of unemployment seems to be in the past. Each month for the last six,, there have been fewer layoffs. The latest employment report showed that the service sector added 56,000 jobs while manufacturing was still losing them, though by a much smaller amount than in previous months.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Rational optimism
Posted Oct 24th 2009 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Apple Inc (AAPL), Comfort Zone Investing
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) just reported unbelievably good earnings in an unbelievably bad economy. Fiscal fourth quarter results were up 46% compared to the same quarter last year. Investors liked what they saw and pushed the stock over $200 a share in after market trading. How can Apple deliver great earnings while almost everyone else is struggling?
Investors can learn a lot from studying Apple and applying it to all their stocks. While it is a high tech company, it has attributes that all great companies share. Here are some of them.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Apple shows how it's done
Posted Jul 18th 2009 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Comfort Zone Investing
There's a number almost synonymous with investing. It's the P/E ratio. That's Price to Earnings. It's only one number, but it's a powerful one, one that can tell an investor quite a bit about how other investors value a stock. Never buy a stock based on one number, but a good number to start with is the P/E.
The P/E is calculated just like it's spelled. Take the price of the stock (P) and divide it by the last full year's earnings (E). That's what's called the Trailing P/E. It's the most common P/E ratio, the one most investors ask about when they inquire: "What's the P/E?" of a stock.
A second P/E is the Forward P/E. It's the one that uses the projected earnings for next year as the denominator. If analysts are right in their projections for a stock's earnings, this P/E will give you a reading as to the "cost" of buying a stock based on future results.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: The power of one number - the P/E ratio
Posted Jul 11th 2009 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Coca-Cola (KO), International Business Machines (IBM), Comfort Zone Investing

Summertime....and the livin' ain't easy. The economy's in worse shape than the administration thought, even after pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into it. More people are losing their jobs. Unemployment's at 8.5% and according to many economists will go higher, maybe above 10% before the layoffs stop. Gas at the pump has gone above $3 again, even with the price of oil starting to show some weakness. Home prices are still going down and foreclosures continue to rise. Defaults on consumer credit is at all-time highs. When will it ever end?
Don't know. No one does. But that isn't a reason to stop investing, to quit preparing your portfolio for the next big upward move that will surely come. You doubt that? Just look at a price chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 100 years. It's full of periods where the line is going down, only to be followed by large increases on the upside. Unless the whole capitalist system is gone forever, history will repeat. There will be an upward swing to this market, and it's more likely sooner rather than later.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: The glass isn't half empty -- it's half full
Posted May 16th 2009 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: General Motors (GM), Citigroup Inc. (C), Comfort Zone Investing
The stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, sharply rebounded from its low of 6440 in March of this year. Currently, as this is written, the notable index is hovering around 8400. That's an increase of 30%. Not bad for two months of trading. While the average is made up of only 30 stocks, those 30 stocks are some of the best. There are also some real losers, such as General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Citigroup (NYSE: C). But for the most part, the index contains the strongest industries with some of the strongest stocks. With that kind of recovery already in place, is it too late to buy stocks or is this just the start of a major rally?
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Is it too late ... or too early to buy stocks?
Posted Apr 4th 2009 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Comfort Zone Investing
There are always a lot of emotions involved with investing. Most of the time they're fear or greed. Recently it's been outright terror. That's because large amounts of money have been lost. Most indexes for stocks were down between 40% and 50% in 2008.
In the month of March, we saw a very nice rally. There's Spring and hope in the air. But here's the reality: the market is still down 13.3% for the quarter, its sixth straight quarter of losses. The Dow last fell in six consecutive quarters in the period ending on June 30, 1970. It was the worst first quarter in percentage terms since 1939, when the average fell 14.81%. One robin does not make Spring. One month does not make a rally.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Market realities
Posted Feb 21st 2009 10:30AM by Ted Allrich (RSS feed)
Filed under: Daimler (DAI), General Motors (GM), Economic Data, Comfort Zone Investing, Recession
Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
Lately I've looked in vain for good news. I mean news that has some substance, that would make a real difference to an investor. I can't find any. In fact, I feel like a pinball, bouncing from one rubber post to another, each one accelerating the downward, inevitable path toward the black hole at the bottom of the board.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: That pinball feeling
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