It should surprise no one that oil stocks have taken the lead in the first quarter, while financial stocks -- after a good two-year run -- have been tamed. This is how things have shaped up through the first quarter for my 2011 stock picks. (For a look at my original picks, see here: part 1, part 2, and part 3.)

Normally, if I said a business was underwater, investors would think the worst. Actually, in the summer Noble Corp (NE) was underwater -- and investors were not impressed. However, this was a great buying opportunity, and although the company is still underwater, it is also a market leader among my stock picks and the overall market -- even among oil industry players. With its fleet of 69 offshore drilling rigs, Noble stands tall.

"This is a time for defensive measures, and one defensive stock idea is Telefonica (TEF); based in Madrid, Spain, Telefonica is a world telecom leader, with more than 280 million customers in 25 countries," notes Mark Skousen.

The editor of Forecasts & Strategies explains, "The company has a particular emphasis on Latin America. Telefonica offers landlines, cell phones and services, network leasing, cable and satellite television, and broadband services. It also is expanding rapidly in Asia in a partnership with China Unicom.

We are only one month into the new year and there have not been many dull moments. Games are going on in the Middle East and they are not the friendly kind. In Egypt a million plus protesters are playing a game of chicken with the Mubarak government demanding he step down from his 32-year-old reign as perpetual president.

This is not radical Islam fundamentalists; it is even more fundamental. The people want to improve their daily lives in a meaningful way. Education, infrastructure, clean water and clean streets. Speaking of infrastructure and getting back to the less dramatic but still important great stock picks Telefonica (TEF) and General Electric (GE) were the big winners so far bouncing over 10% in January.

I have already gone on record this year saying that financial companies and insurance stocks are going to continue to rebound. In my previous two posts Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 and Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9, I included several financial institutions. Today I add an insurance company.

The industry got whacked hard for many reasons. For one, it makes a significant amount of profit by investing its float, and like every other investor, the industry lost a pile of money in the financial crisis. It was embroiled more directly than some industries, as several insurers are affiliated with banks. Finally the housing crisis meant disruption to payment streams by homeowners who were delinquent on more than their mortgages.

Here are the next four of my 2011 picks. I am behind schedule, after publishing the first 5 earlier in the week (see: Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11). This year instead of starting completely anew, I am adjusting my 2010 picks. There is no sense in abandoning good ideas just because the calendar turned a page.

You will actually find support of running themes I have been writing about over the past few months. One of these is the idea of making a contrarian investment in a basket of stocks that have been both scalded and scolded in the headlines. Six stocks were included in such a group that I called the "toxic stocks" (see: Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update #3 -- BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG).

Could a stock that you made 1,100% on still have room to run? Yes, it is possible. In particular if it had a near death experience as a penny stock for a while.

That is the case with Newcastle Investments (NCT), the CMBS lender and real estate investment company that reached a recent high of $7.10 and has settled back down, most recently hovering between $6.70 to $7.00. It closed Thursday December 23 at $6.71.

The economic news out of Europe has strengthened the dollar and recast doubt on the euro. The demise of the Irish "domino" after the bailout of the Greek domino has formed clouds over the Portuguese and Spanish dominoes.

As fear grows, the European Bank is trying to build a buttress to hold up the dominoes. However, from the perspective of the Greek and Irish people the prescribed austerity measures employed is just foreign oppression and will not help their employment levels.

What this means to most investors is to run for the hills. What it means to this investor is watch closely for buying opportunities because bargains will be created by the fear -- for sure!

It certainly is presumptuous, perhaps even self serving of me to assume the market is going higher in the face of so much uncertainty.

The reason I hold this belief is that so much money is sitting on the sidelines and much of it is getting restless. It's one thing for those on a fixed income to suffer because the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates so low, but it is quite another thing to expect $2 trillion dollars of corporate cash to want to live like senior citizens. That cash is a bigger drag on earnings with each passing day.

In the midst of deep fear and melodramatic headlines in May, I dove into the market suggesting investors take a hard look at three companies that would survive anything the world could throw at them.

There are often profits to be made from the headlines as fear and greed drive the market. You must have read umpteen times in journals worldwide "my pal Warren's" trumpeting smart investors to buy on fear. Well, last may Novartis AG ADS (NVS), Telefonica SA (TEF) and Unilever ADR (UL) were on sale as fear ruled the day. So let's see how these ideas worked out.

The most common question I get from friends, family, business associates and, well, everyone is -- Do you expect a double-dip recession? My answer is an unequivocal "No!"

This does not mean that I think we are going to experience a dramatic improvement in the economy. We are not. Many of my colleagues seem to oppose my view, so it is not without some trepidation that I take this stand. However, I see the glass half full. My view is that others are overly influenced by "group-think" and the calls of doom.

I do think that we are currently adrift in uncharted waters and we may have a faulty rudder, too. The biggest fear I have is that everyone jabbering about another deep recession may actually cause one.

The following supports why I feel, from what we know, that we are not destined for a double-dip recession:

A few weeks ago, a good friend asked me for a stock recommendation that he might add to his Roth IRA. Three stocks with high yields came to mind that would be great in a retirement account. Note that I do not advise others what they should do, but share what I am doing or contemplating doing.

I recently included Merck (MRK) in a review of the granny portfolio, and discussed Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) in Chasing Value™: Buffett Must Be Buying Oil. I own Merck in all of my portfolios and have made Shell the largest holding in the largest portfolio. The third stock that I thought of I don't yet own -- Telefonica SA (TEF). I looked at it last May, and it currently pays a whopping 7.13% yield.

Perhaps the European Union was doomed from the start and it just took a decade for the more productive member states to realize it.

If you went into a business with a bad partner is there any way for it to work? Inevitably there will be a split and that might be the case for the EU members and the battered euro.

Regardless of the end result shrewd investors should be on the lookout for stock bargains in large successful European companies undermined by the failure of the monetary system. The following three stocks are examples worth considering.

"We believe many outstanding buying opportunities are available among these undervalued foreign stocks; we screened the Zacks, Investors Business Daily, S&P and Value Line databases to find foreign companies with rapidly growing earnings," says J. Royden Ward.

The editor of Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter explains, "We believe these six companies offer excellent appreciation potential at reasonable prices: Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Mindray Medical (MR), Potash (POT), Seagate Technology (STX), Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Telefonica SA (TEF)."

An update on two short positions: GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME), recommended on May 26, 2009 at a price of $26.00, and Telefonica S.A. (NYSE: TEF), recommended on the same day at a price of $61.11.

GameStop: Hold Short. It's still hard to make the case for growth in high-end / sophisticated games amid a slowdown in consumer spending. The era of the 'frugal consumer' is upon us: basic games are in, pricey games are out. Cover Short on a bounce off $20, $17, $15, or $10. Buy/Stop Loss if you sold shares in this company: $33.

Some contend that shorting stocks is un-American. Hardly. Selling short provides liquidity to the markets, aids in price discovery, and provides an extra check -- some argue the only check -- against ill-conceived business ideas and incompetent executives.

New York Stock Trader Dave Fischer is a short king, and has made most of his money over the past 15 years shorting stocks. His favorite phrase is, "With those fundamentals, that stock can't hang on for long."

Short these shares if you can tolerate high-risk and are an experienced investor that does not remove Buy/Stop Losses.