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Broadcasters, ad folks desperate for a better audience-measuring mousetrap

It took a while, but the broadcast media community is starting to realize that Nielsen Media may not have the answers to all their audience-related questions.

So, 14 of the largest players in the space -- including programmers, advertisers, and ad buyers -- are shelling out some cash to see if there's a better way. The group claims it isn't looking for an alternative to Nielsen ... but let's do the math on this one. If they aren't looking for some new choices, then just what the hell are they doing?

Continue reading Broadcasters, ad folks desperate for a better audience-measuring mousetrap

Disney's third-quarter earnings expected to decline

This afternoon,the Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) is going to be reporting its fiscal third quarter earnings.

Analysts are expecting to see the company hit hard by the current recession, with all segments of the company's business have felt the impact.

Continue reading Disney's third-quarter earnings expected to decline

World Wrestling Entertainment: How was the cash flow in Q1?

Last week, World Wrestling Entertainment (NYSE: WWE) reported its Q1 results. Above all, investors interested in this business look at one thing: cash flow. Why? Take a look at WWE's dividend yield.

As of Tuesday's close, the stock was yielding almost 13%! That's high. And a high dividend yield often indicates that a dividend cut may be in the offing -- the theory being that if the yield were sustainable, then buyers would rush in, and their activities would eventually lower the yield by driving the price higher.

Well, WWE hasn't had a great time of it when it comes to cash flow. I found this out when I examined the company's third quarter. Net cash from operations, unfortunately, has been overpowered at times by the dividend obligation. In fact, according to the Q4 report (pdf file), operational cash flow for 2008 dropped significantly to roughly $36 million, and the dividend obligation was over $80 million.

And that was before capital investments. That's sort of like the Undertaker throwing Mankind off the top of a steel cage. In other words, it's not pretty, folks.

Continue reading World Wrestling Entertainment: How was the cash flow in Q1?

CBS sees sales decline and a loss in Q1

CBS (NYSE: CBS) programmed its Q1 earnings report Thursday after the bell. If the report had been a pilot, it would have been canceled immediately.

Revenues slipped over 13% to around $3.2 billion. CBS said it lost 8 cents per share. Talk about a failure of a quarter. Last year at this time, CBS made 36 cents per share. True, the comparison was a difficult one, since a change in distribution strategy for the international placement of the CSI asset enhanced the previous year's results.

But let's not get hung up on difficult comparisons. CBS simply had a bad three months. A very bad three months indeed. Oh, and I should note that analysts thought CBS might earn 7 cents per share. That seems almost comical at this juncture.

Continue reading CBS sees sales decline and a loss in Q1

News Corp. reports big declines in operating income and cash flow

News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS), a media concern that competes with companies such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Disney (NYSE: DIS), CBS (NYSE: CBS), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, issued its Q3 report on Wednesday after the bell. The numbers weren't that great, but you know what? The stock rallied anyhow in the after-hours session, rising over 3%. That's typical of what's been happening: Stocks are going higher even on weak news. Maybe the bears truly are heading back to hibernation.

News Corp. revenues declined by 16%. In terms of earnings, we'll look at operating income since, in this particular case, the numbers involve a lot of gains. This metric dropped 46%. And cash flow from operations for the nine-month period plunged well over 50%.

Continue reading News Corp. reports big declines in operating income and cash flow

Cable companies working to curb free online TV

Right now, over at Hulu.com -- a joint project of News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, viewers can check out recent editions of, for example, The Daily Show or Man Caves, among many other programs normally viewed on cable networks such as Comedy Central or the DIY Network. Viewers need a computer and a high-speed Internet connection to catch these programs, but they don't need a cable subscription (or even a television!).

Continue reading Cable companies working to curb free online TV

Tina Fey denies McDonald's product placement on '30 Rock'

McDonald's McFlurry - Made Popular on My secret shame . . . last Friday, I blew my ever-present diet and tried my first McFlurry at McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD). I was driven to the Golden Arches not by a craving or a bad day, but by Jack Donaghy, the arrogant General Electric Corporation (NYSE: GE) executive played so masterfully by Alec Baldwin on 30 Rock, broadcast by GE's own NBC Network.

In the Valentine's themed episode, Jack and lady love Elisa (Salma Hayek in a multi-arc guest-starring role) partake in the frozen concoction, praising it as "the world's greatest dessert." Soft ice cream, M&Ms, whipped together and served with the world's most practical-looking spoon? What could go wrong?

Continue reading Tina Fey denies McDonald's product placement on '30 Rock'

Whedon's 'Dollhouse' flops; how long will FOX hang on?

Fans of Joss Whedon's critically acclaimed and cult-followed shows, Buffy the Vampire Slayer and Angel, were amped about the creator/writer/director's latest project, Dollhouse. Unfortunately? Few of them tuned in.

The Eliza-Dushku mid-season effort, a sci-fi series about special agents who can be cloned with traits and personalities, saw just 4.7 million viewers tune in, nabbing a 6 share and a 2.0 rating among adults 18-49. In fact, Dollhouse was the second lowest-rated series premiere this season (on a major network). Guys? It was beaten by Supernanny, which aired on Walt Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC and attracted 6.1 million viewers.

Continue reading Whedon's 'Dollhouse' flops; how long will FOX hang on?

Time Warner Cable's one-penny promotion backfires

Thanks to Jason Voorhees and Jennifer Aniston, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) had a very successful weekend at the box office, as Steven Mallas pointed out earlier. It was a different story, however, for Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC), which quickly saw a nice offer unravel into a customer-service nightmare.

For Valentine's weekend, the company had offered its Southern California customers a so-called "1 Cent Love N' Movies Deal," featuring 40 movies on demand for a penny each. Titles included romantic favorites such as Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Sixteen Candles, and Love Actually, along with some newer titles including Burn After Reading.

So what's the problem? According to the OC register, the promotion "attracted three times more viewers than the company anticipated," leading to movies that were unable to be watched. Angered customers can call customer service and receive a coupon good for one one-penny movie. But, as the register points out, the coupon will only be sent to those proactive enough to call in.

Additionally, this fiasco puts the promotion into the news, likely prompting Midwesterners and East-Coasters to wonder why they, too, weren't deemed worthy of such "special" treatment?

Beth Gaston Moon works for WeSeed.com. The above comments are not intended as trading or investment advice.

MLB teams up with the NHL to sell online video package

No, we aren't talking about a great deal of cross promotion between my Cincinnati Reds and my Columbus Blue Jackets or anything (although the thought of my right-handed doppelganger, Aaron Harang on skates should intimidate even the toughest hockey player), but Major League Baseball Advanced Media (MLBAM) and the National Hockey League (NHL) are teaming up.

The two are going to start co-selling an online video package where out-of-market game subscriptions for both leagues will be marketed in tandem. According to The Sports Business Journal (SBJ), this deal "marks a rare level of cooperation between sports entities with limited common ownership."

Continue reading MLB teams up with the NHL to sell online video package

Time for an ex-Wall Streeter reality show

There have been numerous stories about the plight of the newly unemployed former Wall Street hotshot and it really is quite sad. Hard-working paper pushers have gone from seven-figure bonuses to the unemployment office. and in particularly dire cases, they've had to transfer kids to less elite private schools or perhaps even sell an Aspen ski lodge.

All of this could make for a fascinating CNBC reality show styled after hits like The Surreal Life and The Simple Life. Call it The Severed Life. The show would feature recently laid-off high level corporate executives, including former CEOs who left with massive severance packages, there to serve as punching bags: Richard Fuld, Angelo Mozilo, and Ken Lewis -- Oh wait, he somehow still has a job. Lesser-known cast members might include investment bankers and hedge fund managers.

Continue reading Time for an ex-Wall Streeter reality show

Lions Gate buys TV Guide properties: Why?

So, I just read that Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) purchased TVGuide.com and TV Guide Network from Macrovision Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: MVSN) for over $250 million. Here's the press release. The question I have is: Why would Lions Gate want to do this?

I know I'm going to be called pretty ignorant by some for even thinking to disagree with this move, but nevertheless, I disagree with this move. The reason is simple (to me, at least). If I were a shareholder of the company, I think I'd rather have management focus on creating content as opposed to spending a lot of money to buy up a platform. Sure, these TV Guide properties have a high level of brand equity and are indeed widely distributed. But a quarter of a billion dollars is a lot of money, a sum that could have been allocated toward new movie franchises and content acquisitions.

Does Lions Gate really want the hassle of integrating the TV Guide portfolio into its business? Won't that distract the company from focusing on its desire to build a great library of movies and television shows so that it can become an attractive buyout candidate someday? I mean, let me get specific for a second. Take the Saw franchise. That's getting a little long in the tooth, isn't it? I look at that quarter-billion bucks and see a bunch of seed money for a ton of new concepts. If only a few made it to Saw-level, then I can only imagine that it would help shareholder value.

Continue reading Lions Gate buys TV Guide properties: Why?

Should NBC have let Leno go?

I found myself writing about General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC the other day, specifically about CEO Jeff Zucker's apparent flummoxed realization that radical changes may be needed to stanch the ratings erosion that have plagued the major broadcast networks in this brave new media world. Now, I have another, equally interesting subject to look at: Jay Leno will be given a talk show after he hands The Tonight Show over to Conan O'Brien. The program will air on weeknights from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m.

As we all probably know by now, NBC was intent on having O'Brien take over Leno's position as a way of ensuring that he would stay at the network. Leno, as one would imagine, reportedly hated giving the job up. NBC, however, did not want Leno to head over to another network. Supposedly, Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC was perhaps interested in taking Leno on. So, the powers that be at the Peacock net have secured the services of Mr. Leno by offering him the chance to do something new: namely, distribute his schtick at an earlier time.

Okay, I'll tell you, I think this is a ridiculous idea. On many levels. Let's talk about level one: is this even going to work? Do people want to see Leno at 10 p.m.? Hey, maybe they will. But I get the feeling that this might be too much of a change for people used to seeing Leno at 11:30. Let's go to level two: why does NBC want to program what would essentially be two Tonight Shows? Won't there be some cannibalization going on here? You always hear media companies whining about cannibalization.

Continue reading Should NBC have let Leno go?

Earnings preview: Will Disney resist the recession?

Get ready, Mouse fans. Disney (NYSE: DIS) will be letting Wall Street know this Thursday if its fourth quarter was a good one or not. A lot of eyes will be on the company. Shareholders will want to know the outlook for the theme parks and how the advertising marketplace is treating the company's media holdings. So far, things haven't been too bad at Disney, but many on Wall Street are expecting the recession is to catch up to the company. I expect this myself. So I'll be perusing the conference-call transcript for such items as guest spending at the parks and the quality of the scatter advertising market at ABC. I'll also be keeping my eye out for comments about the consumer-products segment and the company's investments in the video-game division. Disney is spending a lot on the latter, and I think shareholders need to have an idea of how the portfolio of games to be released during the holiday season is expected to perform. In terms of the former, I want to know if the Disney brand is working its magic in the retail channels.

In terms of the bottom line, Earnings.com says that income should be about $0.49 per share. That would represent growth of roughly 17%. I'd be happy with that double-digit number. And I'm pretty sure that estimates will be beat by a penny or two, knowing the company's reputation. But as a shareholder, I tend to be more interested in the cash-flow statement. I like to see how much free cash has been generated, and how the company is using it. In fact, we'll get the cash-flow number for the last twelve months this Thursday. I'll want to see how many shares have been repurchased, and I'll be interested in attempting to gauge what the next dividend increase is likely to be. Disney likes to take shares back as a way of rewarding shareholders, but management really needs to do a better job with the dividend, as I think it could be higher. I would expect that Disney will deliver a decent cash-flow statement.

And how are the Disney Channel franchises faring? Is Hannah Montana wearing out her welcome? Somehow, I don't think that will be the case; someday soon, sure, but not just now. And will the next High School Musical movie be released on the big screen with a new cast? I would appreciate one of the analysts out there inquiring about that. The whole Disney-Channel-incubator thing has been a powerful force for both the company and the brand, and I'm sure CEO Bob Iger will be crowing about it. But I'd love to know what his spreadsheets are saying about the longevity at this point for the current franchises. Will Disney know when it's time to sell out of one fad and invest in another? For that matter, how are the Jonas Brothers doing? We do hear about them, but they don't have the same iconic value of a Miley Cyrus, do they? They don't to me, at least, but maybe I'm just out of the loop. Iger should explain what plans the company has to turn them into the next truly big thing.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Disney resist the recession?

CBS put a loss on the Q3 schedule

CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS) lost money in the third quarter (to see the data, you can click here to link to a pdf file). The loss was huge. Would you believe the red ink was equal to $18.58 per share from continuing operations? If you're a shareholder, you're probably shuddering at this point. But hold on, we're talking loss from a GAAP point of view. On an adjusted basis, excluding various charges (including the effect of the CNET purchase), CBS took in $0.43 per diluted share from continuing operations. According to my earnings preview, analysts were looking for a number around $0.40 per share. That's more like it. Yet, there's another angle to the CBS story that won't be so reassuring. And that angle has to do with cash flow.

You see, CBS really promotes its dividend. For a dividend to be considered safe and strong, it needs to be backed by free cash flow. Well, during the third quarter, CBS produced no free cash. It used $38 million for its corporate activities. Before anyone panics, management was quick to point out that, for the nine-month period, free cash flow was a positive $1.4 billion. CBS paid out about $524 million in dividends. So, that should allow for some comfort. Still, for a company that likes to base itself on returning value to shareholders, that does give me pause. Yes, it's only one quarter, but we are stuck in an awful economy right now, and the advertising outlook seems pretty challenged going forward. The Wal Disney Corporation's (NYSE: DIS) ABC, General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC, and News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Fox are all in the same boat. Management does explicitly state in the earnings release that it's going to keep a strong eye on costs. I hope so. I also hope it'll keep a strong eye on the ratings of its television shows and continue to look for programming that can keep the cash coming. CBS has done well during the opening weeks of the new season.

Can CBS' content win the day and justify the stock's current yield? That's the big question. Since CBS' stock sports a yield of over 11%, the market is basically saying that bad things are to come. But, if management can sustain the dividend, then the yield can be considered a huge asset at this point. I'd be willing to give CBS the benefit of the doubt over the long term, but if you're thinking of trading the stock, I'd have a firm exit strategy in mind and use a tight stop. Wall Street has been in a very fickle mood lately, so anything can happen to stock prices at any moment. Executive chairman Sumner Redstone is very confident in the company. I'm not sure how big an endorsement that is, but it's something, at least, right?

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 07:44 AM

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