Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH - option chain) shares are dropping today after the company reported a third-quarter profit of $8.6 million, or 12 cents per share, missing analysts' estimates of 13 cents per share. TXRH also warned that earnings for 2008 will be flat with last year's numbers.

It has been common wisdom that worried consumers won't be spending their cash on casual dining until they feel more confident about the economy, and the flat full-year forecast from TXRH seems to add weight to that thesis. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TXRH.

This morning, TXRH opened at $6.91. So far today the stock has hit a low of $6.23 and a high of $6.96. As of 12:20, TXRH is trading at $6.21, down $0.93 (-13.0%). The chart for TXRH looks bearish and S&P gives TXRH its lowest 1 STARS (out of 5) strong sell ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $7.50 range.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Blackboard, Ruth's Chris Steak House, Texas Roadhouse, China Digital and Main Street were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Suntrust initiated shares of Blackboard (NASDAQ:BBBB) with a Neutral rating, as they sees risk to 2008 Street estimates due to minimal margin expansion.
  
• Deutsche Bank started shares of Ruth's Chris Steak House (NASDAQ:RUTH) with a Hold rating, as they find it difficult to recommend a high-end dining chain in this economic environment.
• The firm also initiated Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ:TXRH) with a Buy rating and $15 target, citing the company's solid balance sheet, consistent operating history and low valuation.
  
• Piper expects shares of China Digital (NYSE:STV) will move higher as investors recognize the growth potential of the conditional access card market in China. The firm started shares off with a Buy rating and $43 target.
  
• Morgan Keegan resumed coverage of Main Street (NASDAQ:MAIN) with an Outperform rating and sees fair value range $15.50 to $17.00 based on MAIN's current yield of 9.2%.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Societe Generale initiated Centrica PLC (CPYYY) with a Sell rating.
  
• Conceptus (NASDAQ:CPTS) was initiated with a Buy rating and $27 target at Oppenheimer.
  
• JP Morgan resumed coverage of Eastman Kodak (NASDAQ:EK) with an Underweight rating, and Infinera (INASDAQ:INFN) and Starent Networks (NASDAQ:STAR) with Overweight ratings.
  

Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) operates a full-service, casual dining chain of 278 restaurants in 44 states. Outlets are decorated in a southwestern theme and feature steaks, ribs, chicken, and seafood. The chain is ranked 38th on the Forbes Best 200 Small Companies List and has been ranked first in the Pub/Grill category by readers of Consumer Reports.

The firm pleased investors late last month, when it reported Q3 EPS of 14 cents and revenues of $189.5 million. Analysts had been looking for 13 cents and $189.3 million. Management also offered FY07 EPS guidance of "at least" 53 cents (53 cent consensus) and said that FY08 earnings would grow by about 20%. CIBC subsequently remarked that the firm's solid report and positive outlook stood out in a casual dining landscape littered with earnings and guidance disappointments. TXRH shares popped on the news and have since been consolidating the gain in a bullish "flag" pattern. Stocks frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the stock with six "strong buys," five "buys" and two "holds." Analysts see a 22% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The TXRH PEG ratio (1.08), Price to Sales ratio (1.30), Price to Book ratio (2.54), Price to Cash Flow ratio (13.49), Sales Growth rate (27.61%), EPS Growth rate (40.0%) and Return on Assets (8.66%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 68% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $10.51 and $16.05. A stop-loss of $10.40 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The systems technology sector, Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (AUXL) and BioSante Pharm (BPA) were today's noteworthy initiations:

• In the systems technology sector, JP Morgan initiated coverage on CommVault Systems (NASDAQ: CVLT) and Double-Take Software, Inc (NASDAQ: DBTK) with Overweight ratings, Isilon Systems (NASDAQ: ISLN) and Opsware Inc (NASDAQ: OPSW) with Neutral ratings and Avocent Corp (NASDAQ: AVCT) with an Underweight rating.

• Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AUXL) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Cowen, which said AUXL's lead candidate, AA4500, is in pivotal testing for Dupuytren's contracture, which could be a $400M+ revenue opportunity.

• BioSante Pharmaceuticals (AMEX: BPA) was initiated with a Positive rating at Susquehanna, as the firm is positive on BPA's growth prospects for the transdermal estrogen market, upside potential from the female dysfunction market, and valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Morgan Stanley initiated shares of Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ: LAMR) with an Overweight rating and $77 target.

• SunTrust Robinson Humphrey initiated shares of Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) with a Neutral rating.

• Morgan Joseph initiated shares of Metalico (AMEX: MEA) with a Hold rating.

• Stifel Nicolaus initiated shares of Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) with a Sell rating and a $5 target.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Coca-Cola (KO), Fiserv, Inc (FISV) and several real estate companies were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup, as the firm believes the company is addressing growth issues through recent acquisitions and notes that there are signs of stabilization in Japan.
• Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen based on valuation, upside from restructuring, new management's willingness to unlock value, and the potential possibility of a company sale.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Apartment Investment and Management Co (NYSE: AIV), AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB), Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP), Developers Diversified Realty Corp (NYSE: DDR), Kilroy Realty Corp (NYSE: KRC), Kimco Realty Corp (NYSE: KIM), Macerich Co (NYSE: MAC) and Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG).

OTHER UPGRADES:

• RBC Capital upgraded Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) to Outperform from Sector Perform, citing valuation and improved EPS outlook.
• Kenexa Corp (NASDAQ: KNXA) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse, citing valuation and reduced risk from the BrassRing acquisition.
• Goldman Sachs added Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ: FWLT) added to its Conviction Buy List, citing valuation and leverage to energy infrastructure build and power.
• Goldman also added ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) to its Conviction Buy list, citing upside to FFO guidance, favorable domestic and international demand and above-average development margins.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

When you gotta get out for supper and the plate's gotta be full, there is an outfit headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky offering portions so large they say their tables do the tippin'. Certainly, their customers rank 'em high.

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) operates a full-service, casual dining chain of 257 restaurants in 44 states. Outlets are decorated in a southwestern theme and feature steaks, ribs, chicken, and seafood. The chain is ranked 38th on the Forbes Best 200 Small Companies List and is ranked first in the Pub/Grill category by readers of Consumer Reports.

The firm pleased investors last week, when it essentially matched Street estimates of Q4 revenues and topped the average analyst EPS view. Management also offered FY07 EPS guidance that "at least" matched consensus. JP Morgan subsequently upgraded the stock to "overweight." TXRH shares popped on the news and have since been consolidating the gain in a bullish "flag" pattern. Equities frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Altogether, brokers recommend TXRH with six "strong buys," three "buys" and three "holds." Analysts see a 22% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The stock's Price to Sales ratio (1.91) and Sales Growth rate (29.73%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 57% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, TXRH has traded between $9.16 and $17.24. A stop-loss of $13.00 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Specific restaurants and Autodesk (ADSK) top today's list of initiations.

• Robert W. Baird initiated coverage of Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX), Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ:PNRA), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) and Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) with Outperform ratings and P. F. Chang's China Bistro Inc (NASDAQ:PFCB) and Rare Hospitality International, Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) with Neutral ratings.
• American Tech initiated Autodesk , Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) with a Buy rating and $12 target. The firm expects to see meaningful upside to 2008 consensus estimates and recommends investors to buy the stock on any pullback following Thursday's results.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Soleil initiated Openwave Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPWV) with a Hold rating, citing unlikely outperformance due to their maturing product line and consolidating customer base.
• The Bank of America initiated F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV) with a Buy and $90 target. The firm said checks in the enterprise segment have been positive. In addition, Soleil said the company will soon enter a major product cycle with four launches.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Want to hold a small but interesting stock that is rather thinly followed by analysts? Try Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH), a casual dining steakhouse that features in-house meat cutting. Pick your own steak and watch it being cooked just for you. All the home-made bread you can eat. Throw your peanut shells on the floor. Average meal price is $14.00. Texas Roadhouse currently has 250 restaurants in 43 states, with plans to open another two dozen before the end of 2006. In addition to steaks, the menu also features beef ribs, pork and chicken. Carnivores rule here.

Texas Roadhouse went public in 2004. The stock split 2:1 on September 26, 2005. Shares have slowed a bit since then. Senior management made a presentation on September 19, 2006 at Bank of America's 36th Annual Investment Conference in San Francisco. Highlights of the presentation are: $600 million in total revenues for 2006. Income from operations is forecast to exceed $55 million (I said it was a small company). Earnings per share should be in the 39-43 cents range. Average per restaurant sales volume for 2006 is forecast at $4 million. Sames stores sales growth is modest at 2-3%.

Currently, Texas Roadhouse serves dinner during the week, but expands to include lunch as well as dinner on weekends. Restaurant stocks are notoriously fickle investment vehicles, but Texas Roadhouse compares favorably with its closest competitors, Outback Steakhouse and TGI Fridays.

TXRH closed at $13.53 on September 19, 2006, up 3 cents per share. 798,041 shares traded hands.

[Photo The Jamoker]