Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (NYSE:
HOT)
announced today that its W Hotels unit will open W Bangkok in 2011. The new hotel will feature 400 rooms and will be part of a mixed-use development in Bangkok's commercial and diplomatic center. If you think that the company will not fall by too much over the next few months, now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on HOT.
After climbing to a one-year high of $75.45 in July, HOT took a nosedive to a 52-week low of $52.63 just six weeks later in August. The stock has had a bumpy ride over the past few months, but appears to be settling in with support just below $60. HOT opened this morning at $59.55. So far today, the stock has hit a low of $59.06 and a high of $61.53. As of 3:00 p.m., the stock was trading at $60.46, up $0.72 (1.21%). HOT's chart is improving from bearish to neutral, while S&P gives the stock an encouraging 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January
bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just 3 months as long as HOT is above $45 at January expiration. Starwood Hotels would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money.
HOT hasn't been below $45 since October 2004 and has shown support in the upper $50's recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out 10/25) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by strong historical support around $55. Additionally, HOT has a strong history of beating earnings estimates, with the company's last earnings miss coming in Q1 2003.
Meg Massie is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: At publication time, Meg neither owns nor controls positions in HOT.