This week, the world's top retailers will tell investors how the much-discussed holiday season went. Analysts expect a year-over-year gain of 1.3% for stores open at least a year, which of course uses a dismal 2008 as a benchmark.

The holiday shopping season is the last chance retailers get to pump up their financial statements before the close of their fiscal year, which usually comes at the end of January. For some retailers, up to 40% of their revenue comes in the weeks heading into Christmas.

If consumers try a little harder this year, the holiday season has a shot of hiding memories of last year's nightmare for retailers. The retailers are doing their part, with Walmart (WMT), Gap (GPS), RadioShack (RSH), Walgreens (WAG) and many others opening their doors Thanksgiving Day, giving shoppers the opportunity to start their spending early. There's a chance that consumers will spend a bit more this year to thank each other for keeping their belts so tight for so long.

Forecasts of the season's ultimate result remain difficult to pin down. Some expect a year-over-year decline of 3%, and predictions range to an increase of 2%. Credit is harder to come by, and unemployment remains over 10% and at a 26-year high. But, the pressures on spending are offset by pent-up emotion and a stabilizing financial environment -- even if it isn't getting better yet, it doesn't seem to be getting worse.

If Thanksgiving is a bird, a beer and a football game for you, prepare to have your thinking challenged. Many retailers are looking to get a head start on Black Friday this year, opening a day early, some of them for the first time. Most Old Navy Stores (GPS) will open their doors on Thursday, along with Wal-Mart (WMT), Toys "R" Us, RadioShack (RSH) and Walgreen's (WAG). Rather than bet solely on Friday, retailers are looking to eke every last dime they can out of the holiday season this year.

The National Retail Federation expects holiday spending to drop 1% this year to $437.6 billion. "Retailers need to be competitive," says NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis. "There's a lot riding on the success of November and December retail sales."

Retailers expect a strong turnout on Black Friday this year, but they are careful to explain that it doesn't guarantee a winning holiday shopping season.

Consumers are being lured by good deals and special promotions, and Black Friday specials have been leaked earlier than usual this year in the hopes of generating some buzz. The retail sector needs it. Last year's holiday season was the worst in decades, thanks to the financial crisis. This year, the survivors will benefit from fewer competitors chasing the same consumer dollars.

Okay, so we all know retailers are looking for every holiday edge this holiday season. Consumer spending's been down, and the sprint to Christmas offers the last chance to pump up those Q4 numbers. They are trying out new ways to reach and engage shoppers, particularly via social media. But, the most effective way to bring new customers into the fold -- and keep them around for a while -- may be to pick up the shipping tab. It's pretty old fashioned, but it's best by test.

Once considered a bonus, a special effort, free shipping isn't really optional any more. If a shopper has to pay for shipping from one retailer, he may move on, knowing that plenty of others aren't charging for it. Rebecca Lieb, vice president at Econsultancy, a digital marketing news publisher, notes, "You're delighted the first time you get free shipping, but you expect it the second time."

And, free shipping shouldn't come with any strings attached, according to Shop.org's eHoliday Study (Shop.org is the e-commerce division of the National Retail Federation). Five years ago, 25% of retailers didn't charge for shipping during the busiest shopping day of the year. This year, however, 57% are planning not to hit their customers up for the extra cash, making this cost just another expense associated with running the business during the holiday season.

What's on your Christmas wish list? If the National Retail Federation is right, gift cards are probably holding a respectable place toward the top of the list. These little pieces of plastic are requested most this time of year, and they have the added perk of allowing people to get what they want instead of money wasted on presents that sucks. This trend may give retailers a hand this year, as they'll be able to keep their inventories down.

If shoppers are slow with the cash, retailers won't have to resort to just slashing prices as they had to last year to move product out the door. When the stuff on the shelves is cheap, gift cards aren't as attractive because there's a deal to be had! This year, if inventories are kept down, gift cards are more likely to move.

Thanksgiving is a day to share a meal with family and friends and reflect on all the things we have to be thankful for. With the economy hitting a brick wall, that may seem a tall order this year.

But at least for today, put aside worries about your plummeting portfolio, sinking home values and increasing job insecurity. Even when it comes recession, there are reasons to be thankful. Here are seven things I'm happy about that are occurring now due to the economic slowdown:

Stocks are cheap. We may not have seen the bottom yet (hopefully we have), but this could be the stock buying opportunity you've been waiting for. The trailing price-earnings ratio of stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 is 11. Don't throw all your investable assets in the market all at once, but start nibbling here and there on strong companies that have been slammed by the economy -- like General Electric (NYSE: GE), Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM), Intuitive Surgical, or just a broad index fund -- and hold on for the ride. (For more ideas, see our Stocks To Buy category.)

Gas prices are falling. Last summer, gas prices nationally averaged over $4 a gallon. My mother-in-law was panicked she couldn't afford to stay in her house this winter due to heating oil costs. Now gas is at $1.87 on average nationally and heating oil costs are about 20% lower than last year. Fact is, the price of crude is tied to expectations for economic growth. In recession, demand for crude falls globally and gas and heating oil get cheaper. Then, in a nice virtuous cycle, lower energy prices put more dollars in consumers' pockets and help fuel a bit more spending.

I've been reading about the Great Depression, and I'm thankful I didn't live through that time. As we watch the market stumble, I think about the miners of Harlan County, Kentucky in the '30s, struggling to make $1 a day in script to be spent at the company store. One man recounted how he and his father had to ride their horses seven miles back and forth to the mine. Since the mine itself always had water pooled on the floor, they would come out with soaking wet feet. After riding home on a winter's evening, he would have to chip his father's feet out of the stirrups. I'm thankful I've never had to do that.

I'm thankful I never had to make the decision to send pigs to slaughter while the nation went hungry, in order to drive prices up so that farmers could make a living. I'm glad that I never had to foreclose on a family farm, or have my family farm foreclosed upon. I'm glad that I was never shot during a bloody union/manufacturer confrontation, like between the auto workers and Ford during the depression.

I'm glad I never had a bank fail, taking my hard-earned savings with it. I'm grateful I've never had to sell apples on the street corner. I'm glad I never had to qualify for a PWA job by proving I had at least a few teeth, upper and lower.

I'm grateful my German ancestors were allowed to immigrate here in the 1830s. I'm thankful I am allowed to read news that criticizes our government's economic policies. I'm glad I live in a country where I'm allowed to express my opinions, as wrong-headed as they may be. And I'm thankful that you readers have the same rights.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Crude oil jumped about 2% Tuesday morning to around $96.50 per barrel after the dollar fell to a new low against the euro.

Heating oil also jumped about 5 cents to $2.65 and unleaded gasoline surged about 3.5 cents ahead of the [U.S.] Thanksgiving holiday, historically a very high gasoline consumption period in the United States.

Dollar affects oil

Jim Dietz, independent energy trader, told Bloggingstocks Tuesday that in addition to solid U.S. gasoline demand, strong emerging market oil demand, and geopolitical concerns, there's another factor supporting oil's price: crowding-out by Europeans and others with strong currencies.

"When the euro rises against the dollar, that means Europe can purchase more oil, which is priced in dollars, with their euros," Dietz said. "So they tend to overbid a little and that's what's giving oil a little bump today." Earlier in the day the euro rose to a new high of $1.48 against the dollar before pulling back slightly.

I always complain that holidays are a rip-off being perpetrated by corporate America -- families that can't afford it run up credit card debt so that their kids can have the same video games other kids have. The cessation of holidays would do wonders for our collective wallet -- maybe the Jehovah's Witnesses are onto something.

But here's a holiday that would actually be good to celebrate: November 23 -- National Buy Nothing Day.

As the website points out, there are a lot of great reasons to celebrate: buying less is good for the environment, good for your house (less clutter), and great for your wallet. Plus, some research suggests that owning lots of consumer goods just makes you want more. They even recommend celebrating with a ritual called the "Whirl-Mart":

This activity has the advantage of being most likely to piss off security personnel. You and nine of your closest friends silently drive your shopping carts around in a long, inexplicable conga line without ever actually buying anything.

I can't wait for Buy Nothing Day, and I'm going to try to get everyone I know to participate.

I am sick of reading about Black Friday -- it sounds so ghoulish. The reason for this name is that retailers lose money until the day after Thanksgiving at which point so many people buy holiday gifts that the retailers tip into profitable territory -- going from operating "in the red" to "in the black."

Why not color profit as green instead of black? After all, the money in my wallet isn't black, it's green. So I'm going to call it Green Friday instead. This sounds much more festive and alive to me.

And there's good news on this front. Surveys say that this years' shopping season looks to be better than last years:

• The National Retail Federation projects holiday sales will increase 5% from 2005, bringing spending to $457.4 billion;
• Citigroup forecasts an "average" same-store sales growth of 3% for November through January;
• Deloitte & Touche LLP is forecasting a 7% increase in 2006 holiday spending compared with 2005; and
• A Gallup Poll of 1,004 people indicated consumers will spend an average of $826, more than any of its polls since 2000.

So join in the national celebration of Green Friday. Our nation's retailers are depending on you.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, and a Professor of Management at Babson College.