BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com BloggingStocks http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/media/feedlogo.gif BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com en-us Copyright 2012 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[Lies and statistics: Home sales did NOT rise]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/25/lies-and-statistics-home-sales-did-not-rise/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/25/lies-and-statistics-home-sales-did-not-rise/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/25/lies-and-statistics-home-sales-did-not-rise/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Most people attribute this phrase to 19th century British politician and writer Benjamin Disraeli (it was later popularized by our own Mark Twain). But more recently, financial blogger Barry Ritholtz has embraced the motto as his raison d'etre.

Ritholtz writes the popular financial/cultural blog The Big Picture, where, among other things, he loves to take the headline numbers and debunk them. He understands the numbers. By day he's a market strategist and fund manager.

Today he rolls his eyes and examines the latest U.S. Census and Dept. of Housing and Urban Development numbers that show a 4.8% rise in new home sales.

What the mainstream press either overlooks or fails to mention is that pesky little margin of error. For September's numbers, for example, the margin of error renders the data statistically insignificant.

So statistically speaking, there was no rise. Nothing getting better on the housing front.

Damned lies and statistics. Mark Twain would surely be a fan of the Big Picture.

Lies and statistics: Home sales did NOT rise originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 25 Oct 2007 16:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Barry RitholtzBarryRitholtzhome sales riseHomeSalesRisehousinghousing dataHousingDatamargin of errorMarginOfErrorstatisticsThe Big PictureTheBigPictureU.S. Census BureauU.s.CensusBureauThu, 25 Oct 2007 16:25:00 EST<![CDATA[Buffett Bear (BSC) buy a bluff!?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/09/28/buffet-bear-bsc-buy-a-bluff/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/09/28/buffet-bear-bsc-buy-a-bluff/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/09/28/buffet-bear-bsc-buy-a-bluff/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

In his excellent blog The Big Picture, market commentator Barry Ritholz Ritholtz [sorry Barry!] gave a powerful slap to the report that Warren Buffett is in talks with Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) to buy a share of the company. Using language a bit saltier than we use here at family friendly BloggingStocks, Ritholtz made it clear that the idea that Buffett would get involved with Bear Stearns is pure bull . . . well, let's just say that bears use the woods for certain purposes and leave it at that.

So why is Ritholtz so suspicious? First, he points out that Buffett once had a horrible time running Salomon Brothers and is not likely to voluntarily climb back into the trading (and Wall Street ego) pit. Second, the value of Bear Stearns is very much up in the air, which hardly fits Buffett's investment profile. (Ritholtz argues that much of Bear Stearns' recent income, weak as it is, is really an accounting trick based on the reduced value of its own debt.) And third, Buffett has been critical of the fancy financial footwork that Bear Stearns and other firms have engaged in, once calling derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction." All of this makes Buffett a very unlikely investor in Bear Stearns.

Why, then, the rumor? Follow the money. On Thursday, Bear Stearns suddenly sold $2.5 billion worth of 10-year notes. The sale came a day after the report in The New York Times of the rumored Buffett interest. According to a report on TheStreet.com, quoted by Ritholtz, the sale "comes just a day after Bear shares surged nearly 8% on rumors that the Wall Street firm was near a deal to bring in a big outside investor. One report said Bear has been talking with billionaire value investor Warren Buffett. On Thursday, Bear Stearns took advantage of that momentum and some strong demand in the corporate bond market to raise some money."

Quite a coincidence, no? Makes you wonder who started the rumor. But whatever the source, let it serve as a reminder to be careful in the presence of bears of all kinds.

Buffett Bear (BSC) buy a bluff!? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 28 Sep 2007 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Barry RitholzBarryRitholzBear StearnsBearStearnsBSCfeaturedThe Big PictureTheBigPictureWarren BuffettWarrenBuffettFri, 28 Sep 2007 09:30:00 EST<![CDATA[The chutzpah of Bear Stearns (BSC)]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/07/the-chutzpah-of-bear-stearns-bsc/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/07/the-chutzpah-of-bear-stearns-bsc/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/07/the-chutzpah-of-bear-stearns-bsc/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

Wow. My eyebrows raised when I read that Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) chose to liquidate two of its bankrupt hedge funds in the Cayman Islands, presumably to limit how much cash their bilked investors could recoup.

Then I puzzled over a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed piece (subscription required) flacked out by Bear Stearns' chief economist David Malpass today. The WSJ is infamous for its right-wing nut job opinions (in contrast to its reputation for solid business reporting). But this one was a real Marie Antoinette-channeling doozy:

"Housing and debt markets are not that big a part of the U.S. economy, or of job creation. It's more likely the economy is sturdy and will grow solidly in coming months, and perhaps years."

Funny, but two-thirds of Americans think we're already in a recession, or will be soon, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll taken last week. But heck, what do I know?

So you really have to hand it to Barry Ritholtz over at The Big Picture, who put it all together and called a spade a spade.

He writes:

"I bet that the idiotic idea for this steaming pile of manure came from way higher up the Bear Stearns food chain. I'll bet he ground his molars down while writing this garbage. Jimmy Cayne must really want to keep his job in the worst way."

That's why I love the Blogosphere. It's where people who do know can tap their chutzpah and tell the world what they think.

The chutzpah of Bear Stearns (BSC) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 07 Aug 2007 16:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Barry RitholtzBarryRitholtzBear StearnsBearStearnsBSCDavid MalpassDavidMalpassThe Big PictureTheBigPictureTue, 07 Aug 2007 16:45:00 EST<![CDATA[Cramer on the dance floor: Housing rant with Fatboy Slim]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/06/cramer-on-the-dance-floor-housing-rant-with-fatboy-slim/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/06/cramer-on-the-dance-floor-housing-rant-with-fatboy-slim/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/06/cramer-on-the-dance-floor-housing-rant-with-fatboy-slim/#commentsAs Eric Buscemi noted earlier today, a lot of people are talking about Jim Cramer's manic rant about housing last week. For those of you who haven't seen it, Cramer did more than his usual amount of shouting on the topic of how bad the mortgage situation is and how the Fed needs to act now to save the economy from crashing. Choice quotes include: "In the fixed income markets we have Armageddon" and "My people have been in this game for 25 years . . . They are losing their jobs, these firms are going out business" and "They [the Fed] know nothing. The Fed is asleep." (The rant was posted on YouTube and I've pasted it below -- or on the next page, depending upon how you are viewing this post).

On his excellent macroeconomics blog The Big Picture, Barry Ritholtz remarked on the sheer entertainment value of Cramer's performance, and suggested that someone should set the rant to music. It didn't take long for DJ FiniFinito to take up the challenge. Using Fatboy Slim's big hit "Right Here, Right Now," the DJ has created an odd mash-up of Wall Street and dance hall -- call it Wall Street electronic rant.

And now for your listening pleasure, Jim Cramer and Fatboy Slim on the state of the economy.

Continue reading Cramer on the dance floor: Housing rant with Fatboy Slim

Cramer on the dance floor: Housing rant with Fatboy Slim originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 06 Aug 2007 13:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Barry RitzholdBarryRitzholdDJ FiniFinitoDjFinifinitoFatboy SlimFatboySlimhousingJim CramerJimCramerRight Here Right NowRightHereRightNowThe Big PictureThe FedTheBigPictureTheFedMon, 06 Aug 2007 13:11:00 EST<![CDATA[Wal-Mart misses on sales growth]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/08/wal-mart-misses-sales-growth-forecast/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/08/wal-mart-misses-sales-growth-forecast/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/08/wal-mart-misses-sales-growth-forecast/#commentsFiled under: ,

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) reported today that it missed its February sales growth estimates. Sales at stores open at least one year rose 0.9%, short of its own estimate of 1 to 2% and average analyst estimates of 1.7%.

Wal-Mart blamed the usual suspects -- bad weather and weakness in its home and clothing lines. But it's worth asking if there are deeper problems here. In particular, you have to wonder if the weakness in Wal-Mart's sales growth is an early sign of the subprime mortgage implosion.

Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture -- an excellent stock and economics blog if you haven't seen it -- argues that sales weakness at virtually all of the major box stores is related to much bigger macro-economic problems. In short, the famously indebted American consumer may finally be giving up in the battle to endlessly expand consumption.

In 2005, Americans saw their national savings rate fall into negative territory. This hasn't happened since 1933 -- in the midst of the Great Depression. This is part of a larger pattern of rising economic inequality, in which income gains go to the top 20% of the population while the rest of the population gets increases in debt. And it's not the top 20% that's shopping at Wal-Mart -- it's the people toward the bottom, who are having more and more trouble keeping up. They're also the ones who will suffer the most as $1 trillion in subprime mortgages resets over the next few years. Higher mortgage payments means buying less at Wal-Mart and less money for virtually everything else. It's not a pretty picture, especially for investors in American mass market retailers.

Wal-Mart misses on sales growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 Mar 2007 13:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Barry RitholtzBarryRitholtzThe Big PictureTheBigPictureWMTThu, 08 Mar 2007 13:15:00 EST