A new year is upon us and like the beginnings of any year, and even more so, a decade, the predictions are flying fast and furious.

The start of 2010 is bringing out every analyst, talking head, business journalist, periodical and newsletter propagator, sportscaster, palm reader, taro card interpreter, astrologist, medium and madam making predictions to garner attention, entertain and even profit. Apologies to anyone I left out.

The outcome of the Belmont Stakes where Big Brown came in last instead of first is just one more example of the difficulty one has in making predictions. I know little about horse racing, and the only thing I know about the Triple Crown is that there has not been a winner in 30 years (and counting). As irony would have it, the winner of the Belmont was the 38-to-1 long shot Da Tara that went wire to wire.

This event stands out in my mind because I am asked to predict future events on a regular basis (whether it makes sense or not), and because I am in the middle of reading The Black Swan about randomness and uncertainty by epistemologist Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I highly recommend the book to fellow investors and business leaders interested in getting some perspective on risk and the many fallacies we all overlook.

The number of variables that can affect a specific outcome like a horse race are significant, and in the case of the Belmont Stakes, on this occasion something was amiss. When Big Brown turned for home, something wasn't right. Jockey Kent Desormeaux knew the big bay colt was finished. Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr., who guaranteed racing's first Triple Crown in 30 years, knew it, too.