Although short selling -- the practice of selling borrowed shares with the hope of repaying the loan by buying back the shares at a lower price -- goes against the American belief that stocks always go up, I have long been fascinated with it. Short Stories discusses what works, what doesn't, and what some of the leading lights in shorting stocks think about its opportunities and threats. I describe possible short trades and I seek your comments and questions for story ideas. I don't offer any investment advice and I don't trade on any of the posts I write.

I first suggested selling short Bally Total Fitness, Inc. (Pink Sheets: BFTH) last November at $2.59. Why? Bally owed $512 million this year, was spending $7 million more cash than it was taking in, and I doubted that banks would lend it enough money to stay afloat. Back then my biggest concern for the short position was that hedge fund billionaire Stevie Cohen had placed a big bullish bet on Bally -- his SAC Capital Advisors owned 6.9% of the company. I figured he must know something that I didn't.

But on Thursday, Cohen's bet went bust as Bally filed for bankruptcy. According to its filing, "Under the prepackaged restructuring plan, there will be a reduction in the principal outstanding on Bally's existing senior subordinated notes by $150 million by exchanging all existing senior subordinated notes for a new class of notes, common equity and the right to participate in a $77.5 million rights offering."

SAC's wipe out provides a useful insight for investors -- even the most talented players make mistakes. It's just that they make more good calls than bad ones. Meanwhile, those who followed my suggestion to short Bally could cover their position on Monday at $0.31 a share, pocketing a 736% return -- not bad for eight month's work.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Bally.

Short Stories: Bally goes belly up, yielding 736% return for shorts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 02 Jun 2007 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

2006 was humbling because my picks (I focus on three stocks in each monthly edition) trailed the market throughout much of the year. However, they ended up prevailing due to a late December surge in some of the top performing stocks -- e.g., Telefonos de Mexico, S.A. (ADR) (NYSE: TMX) was up 36% from $20.83 when I first mentioned it to $28.26 and Wal-Mart de Mexico (ADR) (OTC: WMMVY) rose 28% from $34.25 (I blogged about it here) to $43.85. This was due to portfolio managers' practice of window dressing -- buying stocks that have done well right at the end of the year so they can report to their shareholders that they owned the stocks.

Since 1998, when public sources began tracking my stock picks, I've been fortunate to have outperformed the S&P 500 in all but one year (in 2003, my stock picks were up 23% compared to 29% for the S&P 500). Since 1998, my stock picks have averaged a 67% annual return compared to a 6% return for the S&P 500. However, 2006 was by far the worst year for my stock picks -- the second worst was 2004 when my picks were up 20% compared to 9% for the S&P 500.

One of the key reasons for these results is limiting losses through a 2% stop loss on stocks mentioned in The Cohan Letter -- if a stock's price falls 2% below the level at which it was noted, the stock is sold. To put the importance of this rule into context, I used it to dump 61% of the 36 stocks highlighted in 2006. Without it, my stock picks would have lost money for investors.

So it is with a serious helping of humble pie that I offer these three stocks to consider for 2007:

Continue reading Three humbly-suggested stock picks for 2007

Three humbly-suggested stock picks for 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Jan 2007 10:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.