From a macroeconomic standpoint, the fiscal stimulus package can't get passed soon enough.

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators (pdf) fell 0.8% in October, with six of 10 components dragging the index lower. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the LEI index to decline by 0.6% in October.

From April-October 2008, the leading index declined 2.4% or a negative 4.7% annual rate, compared to a 1.2% decrease or a negative 2.3% annual rate over the previous six months, the Board said.

Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Thursday the October LEI data documents what many on both Main Street and Wall Street sense: economic conditions are worsening.

"The LEI data shows an economy that's slowing. The recession is getting worse, so look for more of the same regarding job lay-offs and downsizings, as well corporate revenue and earnings declines, and earnings guidance reductions," Felson said. "As it stands now, the economy is likely to remain in recession through at least end of the second quarter of 2009, which points to the need for federal fiscal stimulus, and other measures. The individual states are doing what they can to increase private sector demand, but many are cash-strapped themselves, facing budget deficits."

U.S. consumer confidence declined to 50.4 in June -- the fifth lowest reading in the index's history -- as consumers continued to express concern over a stagnant economy and virtually non-existent job growth, The Conference Board announced Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to drop to 56.5 in June. Consumer confidence index stood at 58.1 in May, 62.8 in April, 65.9 in March, and 76.4 in February.

The board said consumers' evaluation of present-day conditions weakened further in June. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 32.4% from 29.7%, while those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 11.5% from 13.0%.

Consumers' assessment of the job market was considerably more pessimistic than last month. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 30.5% from 28.3, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 14.1% from 16.1%.

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.1% in May, the Conference Board announced Thursday. (pdf)

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the May index to remain unchanged in May. The index increased 0.1% in April and was unchanged in March.

The leading index has risen for the past two months, following a steady decline that began in the middle of last year, the board said. However, the number of components that are falling continues to be greater than the number of components that are rising over the past six months.

U.S. consumer confidence declined to 57.2 in May 2008 -- its lowest level in 15 years -- as consumers continued to express concern over record gasoline prices and virtually non-existent job growth, the Conference Board announced Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to drop to 60.0 in May 2008. Consumer confidence totaled 62.8 in April 2008 and 65.9 in March 2008. In February 2008, the index stood at 76.4.

Also, the board said consumers' evaluation of present-day conditions weakened further in May 2008. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 30.6% from 26.5%, while those claiming business conditions are "good" declined substantially, to 13.1% from 15.4%.

Meanwhile, consumers' assessment of the job market was considerably more pessimistic than last month. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 28.0% from 27.9, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 16.3% from 17.1%.

Further, the board said consumers' short-term expectations continued to deteriorate in May 2008. Consumers expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months increased sharply to 33.6% from 27.4%, while those anticipating business conditions to improve increased slightly, to 10.4% from 10.1%.

Economic Analysis: The May 2008 consumer confidence headline says it all: U.S. consumer confidence is at a 16-year low. The slow growth / no growth U.S. economy understandably is weighing on the typical person's outlook. Stagnant wages for many, record-high energy prices, increasing food prices, uncertain corporate prospects and the worst housing market in a generation, suggest difficult economic circumstances for many Americans, and one would expect concern about the above to show up in polls / consumer surveys. The public (correctly) senses that economic conditions are not good for most individuals and businesses; it will take several months of positive economic data points to reverse this outlook.

The index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.1% in April 2008, the Conference Board announced Monday, with the organization adding that weak growth conditions -- but not a recession -- will remain an overriding theme for the U.S. economy into Q4 2008. (pdf)

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to decrease 0.1% in April 2008. The index increased 0.1% in March 2008 after declining for five straight months.

Four of the 10 ten indicators that comprise the leading index have increased in the past six months. In April 2008, six of 10 increased: stock prices, interest-rate spreads, building permits, jobless claims, vendor performance, and consumer-goods orders. Consumer expectations, factory work hours, and orders for capital goods declined. Money supply was unchanged.

A mild U.S. recession?

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Monday the April 2008 LEI information is another datapoint, albeit a modest one, pointing to a mild U.S. recession.

U.S. consumer confidence declined in April 2008, as consumers continued to express concern over rising food and energy costs, which are boosting retail inflation and lowering disposable income.

U.S. consumer confidence fell in April 2008 to 62.3 from a revised 65.9 in March 2008, the Conference Board announced Tuesday. It was the index's lowest reading since 2003.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to drop to 62.0 in April 2008. In February 2008, the index stood at 76.4.

The board said consumers' evaluation of present-day conditions weakened further in April 2008. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 26.7% from 25.5%, while those claiming business conditions are "good" dipped slightly, to 15.3 from 15.6%.

Consumers' assessment of the job market was considerably more pessimistic than last month. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 27.9% from 24.65, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 16.6% from 19.2%.