Recently, Zac Bissonnette took Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and its press-release wizards to task for essentially issuing a document that was full of spin but low on substance. This was in regard to Amazon having its "best Christmas ever." I'm sure you've heard about it. Well, I was looking at an article yesterday that talked about some box-office numbers from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures asset. I kind of got the same feeling about the numbers as Zac did about the Amazon Christmas thing.

Of course, keep in mind, the article I was looking at was not a press release. Still, the execs at NBC Universal are surely pretty proud about the numbers. After all, they are supposed to be best-ever stats. On the domestic side of things, Universal achieved a total box-office gross of approximately $1.1 billion.

On the international front, the studio brought in $1.7 billion. The year-over-year growth rate was flat for domestic theaters, and for international theaters, the company saw a robust 66% increase. Personally, I'm not impressed. To begin with, domestic was flat, and that's not good. And as for international, well, there was no context in terms of the effects of currency rates.

Plus, does it really matter if a studio is achieving high grosses? There's never any comment about profits and losses on specific titles, compensation structures for the stars, etc. To me, this data doesn't say a lot (admittedly, I'll never be satisfied with the amount of disclosure that studios are required to give on their movie projects).

The article mentions two films as drivers for the year that, in my opinion, underperformed in the domestic marketplace: The Incredible Hulk, based on the Marvel (NYSE: MVL) character, and the latest sequel in the Mummy franchise. The latter barely made it over the $100 million mark, and the former only grossed a little better than $130 million. Big deal. You would have figured that Universal could have squeezed some more box-office bucks out of these properties.

Many on Wall Street believe that GE should rid itself of NBC Universal. I'm not one of them, but I concede that Universal Pictures needs to do better. Seriously, Universal Pictures did okay, but not great, in '08. I sincerely hope that CEO Jeffrey Immelt does not allow the studio to rest on these laurels. That would be a shame, and a slap in the face to shareholders.

Disclosure: I own GE; positions can change without notice.

Universal Pictures had a great year -- does it matter? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Jan 2009 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Marvel (NYSE: MVL), whose competitors include media companies such as Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), reported Q3 numbers on Tuesday. Revenues increased a whopping 48% to $182.5 million. Earnings per diluted share soared 42% to $0.64. And net cash from operations was more powerful than a locomotive (wait, I might be mixing universes with that metaphor): they went up more than ten times, coming in at $172.2 million.

All of that is impressive. It shows that Marvel's movie model can bring in the money. Projects such as Iron Man, distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and The Incredible Hulk, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, helped to drive the quarter.

However, as this article points out, Marvel isn't expecting much from 2009. Why's that? Because there are no new self-produced movies scheduled for release in that calendar year. That's going to drive long-term shareholders crazy, since I'd have to assume the stock won't be doing much during that time period. Traders might get some opportunities if the stock becomes volatile, but either way, there really are no big catalysts on the horizon.

Continue reading Marvel was powerful in Q3, but should you sell the stock now?

Marvel was powerful in Q3, but should you sell the stock now? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) reported earnings for the second quarter on Tuesday, and as one might imagine, even though the numbers were solid, the stock sold off. Hey, this is Marvel we're talking about here. Its shares can be volatile little suckers. They're used as trading instruments by many. I'm even questioning if I should have trimmed my position before the report. As I write this at 2 pm, the stock is off by almost 9%. Let's see what the stats tell us.

The top line rose by 55% to $156.9 million. The bottom line increased by a whopping 73% to $0.59 per diluted share. Talk about hulking up! According to Earnings.com, the call was for $0.45 per share. That's a $0.14 beat, and that freakin' rules.

As one might imagine, Iron Man, which was distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and The Incredible Hulk, placed in theaters by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, helped drive the results. The films gave Marvel some nice licensing revenues and foreign pre-sale monies. There were no contributions from the box-office side of things yet. Marvel will certainly see a good boost to its revenues if, down the line, the home-video release of the projects sell well (which I think they will). Judging from statements made in the conference call (transcribed at Seeking Alpha), we'll see most of the ancillary benefit from the movies next year. I was disappointed to see that publishing was weak (there were some tough comps there), but I'll tell you what was pretty strong: cash flow. Net cash from operations for the last six months more than doubled to over $68 million. And I love cash.

Continue reading Should I have sold Marvel before the earnings?

Should I have sold Marvel before the earnings? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Aug 2008 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There will be five superheroes competing for the attention of weekend moviegoers come Friday. There's Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL)'s duo Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk, Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, General Electric Corporation (NYSE: GE)'s Hellboy (distributed by GE's Universal), and Time Warner, Inc (NYSE: TWX)'s Dark Knight. So, who's going to be the ultimate crime fighter?

I'll tell you which one prevails: Time Warner and its new Batman film, The Dark Knight, has the weekend all locked up. This is set in stone. The Hulk and Iron Man are pretty much done, Hellboy isn't a powerful enough brand name, and Hancock didn't deliver the big numbers I thought it was capable of during its debut weekend (since then, however, the movie has held up well, I have to admit). But you can bet that Dark Knight hits $100 million this weekend. Can you feel the buzz surrounding this blockbuster in the wings? I can. Several reviews I've read were full of cinematic worship for this new entry in the franchise, with special praise reserved for the late Heath Ledger and his portrayal of the fiendish nightmare known as The Joker. There's a decent marketing campaign behind the project, including promotion of the availability of IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) screenings. If there ever seemed a movie fit for Imax, this is it. Yeah, Dark Knight can't lose, it can only win big.

Of course, what about Time Warner's stock? It could certainly use a superhero right now, as it has been hovering in recent times not above Gotham City (although that would probably be treacherous enough) but above 52-week-low City. I can't say that a big opening weekend definitely won't move the stock a little just due to the excitement factor, but I wouldn't buy the company ahead of the film (I also wouldn't gamble with IMAX either). Time Warner simply is too large to be affected significantly by one movie. If you consider Time Warner at all, it would be for fundamentals and valuation (I think the company is cheap here, although with this market, I'd rather get it cheaper). Enjoy the movie first, think about the stock later...

Disclosure: I own GE and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

How big will Time Warner's 'Dark Knight' be? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jul 2008 16:23:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Marvel (NYSE: MVL) is all about making movie franchises these days. For instance, the success of Iron Man has led to plans for a sequel. Shareholders are, understandably, happy about this since a series of blockbuster films will rake in a lot of money for the company and have a positive effect on the shares.

But, Marvel's second movie out of the gate, The Incredible Hulk, may not get the sequel treatment, according to the Hollywood Reporter. The article implied that the financial performance of the film may not have been blockbuster enough to make a sequel inevitable. That doesn't mean that it won't eventually get one, but since there are, as of now, no plans for another Hulk, the speculation is out there. As aforementioned, we already know that there will be another Iron Man.

As a Marvel shareholder, I am disappointed by the box-office results for this latest iteration of the Hulk (even the first weekend seemed weak). Back in 2003, when that year's movie version of the character was released, there was widespread disdain for the project (I myself couldn't stand the flick). Then came this summer's so-called reboot of the franchise. Unfortunately, as of now, 2008 Hulk hasn't done much better than 2003 Hulk.

Continue reading Will there be any more 'Hulk' movies?

Will there be any more 'Hulk' movies? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It's the Fourth of July weekend, and movie studios want to capture as much money for their films as possible, even if they've already been in the theaters for several weeks. No matter what, though, Sony (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, starring the always excellent Will Smith, is set to be the financial superhero of the weekend. Already, as of this writing, the film has taken in about $24 million through Wednesday, according to Boxofficemojo. The movie had some showings on Tuesday before its official debut in the middle of the week. It was number one on Wednesday, followed by Disney (NYSE: DIS)'s Wall-E. The robot flick so far has a total tally of around $86 million.

Poor Marvel (NYSE: MVL) and its The Incredible Hulk project. Will anybody be interested in seeing the big green guy now that Hancock is in the marketplace? Indeed, Hulk took in less than a million bucks on Wednesday, and it ranked number seven for that day. Looks like the Hulk fever is winding down at the multiplex, and it looks like Marvel's stock has had its run for the time being. The stock closed on Thursday at $31.20, well away from the 52-week high of $37.41. I still hold Marvel shares, and although there are no big catalysts on the immediate horizon, I have a long-term outlook on the company. Still, the trader in me wishes that I had lightened up on the position back at the $37 level to book some gains.

Hancock should do well north of $100 million once the Fourth of July holiday period has passed. The marketing, in my opinion, is very compelling, and from what I know about the story, it's a smart idea that provides a nice balance to the frivolous plots of Iron Man and Hulk (I'm using the term "frivolous" here with affection). Sony's scored a hit, maybe even a new franchise (I haven't seen the film, so I can't say if a sequel is feasible or not within the confines of the concept), but it won't do much to move the company's stock. Those looking to play the Hollywood game might want to wait for Marvel to pull back further from current levels.

Disclosure: I own Disney and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

'Hancock' will dominate the July 4th weekend originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I didn't think Get Smart was going to come in at number one, but that's exactly what happened, according to Boxofficemojo. The film, distributed by Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), took in an estimated $39 million at domestic theaters. The film, quite frankly, looks horrible, and I don't get the fascination people have with Steve Carell's supposed "comedic talents." I don't really find him funny. Doesn't matter, though, because moviegoers have crowned Carell king of the box-office weekend whether I like it or not.

I'm actually more concerned with the race for second place between Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda. Both are estimated as of this writing to have booked a little more than $21 million in ticket sales. I'm concerned about this because I own shares of Marvel, and I'm disappointed in the movie's box-office performance. As of now, the new Hulk has about $96 million in terms of total gross. The fact that it hasn't scored over $100 million by now, coupled with it experiencing a 60% drop for this weekend compared to its debut weekend, leaves me less than satisfied.

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) The Love Guru bombed. Looks like you can't always count on stars to deliver the important opening-weekend audience. Are people getting sick of Mike Myers? (Jonathan Berr wondered the same thing.) He was only able to conjure up about $14 million for Viacom shareholders, bringing his film to a fourth-place debut. That's embarrassing for Myers, but unlike Steve Carell, he is genuinely funny (although maybe not so much in this particular film, it seems). News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) M. Night Shyamalan movie The Happening grossed around $10 million and came in fifth.

Continue reading Although Steve Carell isn't funny, 'Get Smart' was number one

Although Steve Carell isn't funny, 'Get Smart' was number one originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Jun 2008 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) movie The Incredible Hulk was incredibly disappointing (to me at least). No, I'm not talking about the quality of the movie. I didn't actually see it. But Boxofficemojo is reporting that it has grossed an estimated $54.5 million at domestic theaters over the weekend. While that was good enough for first place, it wasn't good enough for shareholders. The movie bombed, plain and simple.

Why am I being so hard on a number-one movie? It's not so difficult to understand. The awful Hulk movie that was released back in 2003 grossed $62.1 million in its opening weekend. There's no way to spin this. We've had five years of inflation between that terrible flick and this new iteration. Simply put, it should have grossed at least $65/$70 million, especially on the heels of Iron Man. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I don't like the fact that the success of Marvel's first movie of the summer didn't synergize a little better with the angry green guy.

Focusing on the positive, Marvel was able to beat DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and its Kung Fu Panda project. The cartoon took in about $34 million and came in second. M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening, distributed by News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), did okay by coming in third with a gross of around $30 million. Some analysts thought that the horror flick would do a little bit less than that number. Personally, I thought it should have come in second place considering Shyamalan's name, but I guess people aren't as excited as they used to be about his exercises in cinematic twists (the fact that it was rated R also inhibited its blockbuster potential). Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Adam Sandler comedy You Don't Mess with the Zohan did in fact get messed with yet again, dropping two spots to fourth place, grossing about $16 million. I've heard bad reviews on this one. Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull were daring enough for fifth place. Everyone's favorite archaeologist has now breached the $275 million level. Great to see a favorite character of mine from the past doing so well.

Continue reading Marvel's 'Hulk' came in at number one, but was it a box-office bomb?

Marvel's 'Hulk' came in at number one, but was it a box-office bomb? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I have a confession to make: I'm getting nervous as the weekend approaches. A certain movie has me rather frightened. Is it that creepy picture about mass suicides from M. Night Shyamalan? Nope. It's Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I'm worried about its prospects. It opens on Friday the 13th. Yeah, that's a lucky omen.

Hulk, which is being distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal (I own GE as well, but this won't move GE at all), represents a fresh start for the green, angry beast. If you'll recall, there was a Hulk movie back in summer 2003. It was horrible. In fact, I remember getting up and walking around the theater during a portion of the film so that I could do a bit of self-editing on it. This time around could be different. I just read a review from The Hollywood Reporter that was featured in this Reuters link, and I have to say, I do feel a little calmer. According to the review, this new take on the Hulk character is an entertaining cinematic diversion wholly suitable for the dog days of summer. It apparently is a superior product.

Continue reading I'm nervous about the new 'Hulk' movie

I'm nervous about the new 'Hulk' movie originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 12 Jun 2008 12:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Mattel

Oh, are the powers that be over at Hasbro gloating today or what! While Mattel's stock price, as of this writing, is down 9%, Hasbro's (NYSE: HAS) stock price is rising almost 8%. That's because Hasbro reported a nice profit instead of a loss -- see Eliza Popescu's entry about that toymaker's delightful earnings missive to investors.

Mattel obviously had problems getting people excited about its various brands during the last few months, but maybe the summer will help the company out, as merchandise based on the new Batman and Speed Racer films are set to hopefully win the hearts of kids and collectors everywhere when the movies hit the multiplexes. And Mattel's stock does have an interesting yield at the moment. Still, if I were trying to decide between Hasbro and Mattel, I think I'd probably go for the former -- Hasbro does have the rights for toys from the new Marvel (NYSE: MVL) projects -- Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk -- and it does have the Transformers and Star Wars brands. There's no way to spin this, I guess -- it just wasn't Mattel's day.

Disclosure: I own shares of Marvel; positions can change at any time.

Mattel isn't well today as earnings loss sinks its stock originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 21 Apr 2008 14:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) announced yesterday that it had succeeded in securing a television deal for its movies with News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) cable entity FX. According to the corporate press release, Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk are part of a deal that will include a total of five films from Marvel's self-financed slate of motion pictures.

This is a great announcement; I own shares in Marvel and I believe that there's a good chance that Iron Man and Hulk will do blockbuster business. While the company has increased its risk profile by directly entering the movie business by borrowing from a non-recourse facility to fund projects -- as opposed to just licensing its characters to studios like Sony (NYSE: SNE) -- the upside potential for the stock is awesome if these movies hit it big. FX has obviously given a vote of confidence to Marvel's Hollywood acumen by taking on five of the company's features for one of its media assets. The other thing that I really like about this deal is that FX will be offering some marketing support for the movies when they are in the midst of their theatrical release.

Iron Man will be distributed by Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount Pictures, and The Incredible Hulk will be buoyed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures. I don't know about you, but I think Marvel has some nice partners in its quest to become a bona fide player in Hollywood.

Disclosure: I own shares in Marvel and General Electric.

Marvel uses its super powers to strike cable deal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Mar 2008 11:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Comic book publisher and super-hero film maker Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) recently posted big numbers for 3Q 2007, based primarily on the success of Spider-Man 3. The webslinger's numbers are large enough to cause Marvel CEO Morton Handel to raise FY 2007 guidance from EPS $1.30-$1.55 to $1.60-$1.65. FY 2008 is forecast to be just under EPS 2007 range with the 2008 release of Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk video games.

Bear in mind these numbers were generated before the Hollywood writers' strike. Now all bets are off given the strike's unknown duration. Marvel has a number of projects in various stages of development. Both Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk movies are in the final stages of completion and are set to be released before the beginning of summer 2008. Production of TV series for Wolverine and the X-Men and Iron Man will be delayed, as will the Punisher 2 movie. Investors should enjoy the profits while they can.

Marvel is in the process of shifting away from producing its own toys to licensing Hasbro to produce them. This is a good strategy as more toys, including Curious George toys, are being recalled due to possible lead contamination. This shift has caused a $10 million drop in revenue in 3Q 2007, but this decline was more than covered by a doubling of net sales, to $66 million, in the licensing segment. The rise is driven primarily by Spider-Man 3. While other publishers struggle to turn a profit, comic books are still good sellers. Net sales increased 13% to $35 million, based on World War Hulk and Stephen King's Dark Towers.

Marvel (MVL) posts entertaining profits originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.