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Earnings preview: Will Disney resist the recession?

Get ready, Mouse fans. Disney (NYSE: DIS) will be letting Wall Street know this Thursday if its fourth quarter was a good one or not. A lot of eyes will be on the company. Shareholders will want to know the outlook for the theme parks and how the advertising marketplace is treating the company's media holdings. So far, things haven't been too bad at Disney, but many on Wall Street are expecting the recession is to catch up to the company. I expect this myself. So I'll be perusing the conference-call transcript for such items as guest spending at the parks and the quality of the scatter advertising market at ABC. I'll also be keeping my eye out for comments about the consumer-products segment and the company's investments in the video-game division. Disney is spending a lot on the latter, and I think shareholders need to have an idea of how the portfolio of games to be released during the holiday season is expected to perform. In terms of the former, I want to know if the Disney brand is working its magic in the retail channels.

In terms of the bottom line, Earnings.com says that income should be about $0.49 per share. That would represent growth of roughly 17%. I'd be happy with that double-digit number. And I'm pretty sure that estimates will be beat by a penny or two, knowing the company's reputation. But as a shareholder, I tend to be more interested in the cash-flow statement. I like to see how much free cash has been generated, and how the company is using it. In fact, we'll get the cash-flow number for the last twelve months this Thursday. I'll want to see how many shares have been repurchased, and I'll be interested in attempting to gauge what the next dividend increase is likely to be. Disney likes to take shares back as a way of rewarding shareholders, but management really needs to do a better job with the dividend, as I think it could be higher. I would expect that Disney will deliver a decent cash-flow statement.

And how are the Disney Channel franchises faring? Is Hannah Montana wearing out her welcome? Somehow, I don't think that will be the case; someday soon, sure, but not just now. And will the next High School Musical movie be released on the big screen with a new cast? I would appreciate one of the analysts out there inquiring about that. The whole Disney-Channel-incubator thing has been a powerful force for both the company and the brand, and I'm sure CEO Bob Iger will be crowing about it. But I'd love to know what his spreadsheets are saying about the longevity at this point for the current franchises. Will Disney know when it's time to sell out of one fad and invest in another? For that matter, how are the Jonas Brothers doing? We do hear about them, but they don't have the same iconic value of a Miley Cyrus, do they? They don't to me, at least, but maybe I'm just out of the loop. Iger should explain what plans the company has to turn them into the next truly big thing.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Disney resist the recession?

Why I took a chance on Disney

Ladies and gentleman, this fund investor grew tired of watching his family's portfolio get pummeled by double-digit percentage points and decided to become a stockholder. So, I snapped up a tiny position in Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS).

Before now, I avoided individual equities for several reasons, including that I was prohibited from owning them because of my previous job. I also felt uncomfortable owning stocks since I write about so many of them. My financial planner also discouraged us from taking positions in individual stocks, saying funds are a better way to go.

But after taking a quick look at my last brokerage statement, which showed my portfolio is down about 10 percent, I soon got over my unease. I realize that it's foolish to chase short-term gains but I thought something had to be done. One of the funds we owned seemed to be heavily weighted with gambling and leisure stocks, a sector that I don't expect to come back for a while. We got rid of it and added an ETF that covers the tech sector, which should be among the first to rebound once the economy starts to improve. Still, I wondered if I could do better.

Disney caught my eye a year ago when I labeled it a "slacker stock" because it was such an underachiever. The shares have barely budged this year, moving down about 3%, which in the current market is not bad. Moreover, Disney is outperforming peers such as Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) and Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), both of which are down double digits. The stock is trading at forward multiple of 13, which appears cheap to me considering it's lower than Time Warner and unlike Viacom pays a dividend.

Continue reading Why I took a chance on Disney

Wish upon a star for Disney's earnings?

Shares of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS), along with the other media conglomerates, have been pummeled this year amid concerns about slowing advertising sales and the Hollywood writers' strike. Though the declines are understandable for other companies, such as Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), they are overblown in the case of the house built by Mickey.

For one thing, the weak dollar makes Disney's resorts, particularly Florida's Walt Disney World, attractive for visitors from overseas. About 2.7 million of the 45.1 million in visitors to the Orlando area -- where Disney World is based -- come from overseas. About 53% of them came from Western Europe and 26% came from Canada, according to the Orlando Convention and Visitors Bureau. It would stand to reason that some of the drop off in domestic visitors could be made up from people from outside the U.S.

Continue reading Wish upon a star for Disney's earnings?

BloggingStocks Interview: GE CFO talks up NBC Universal

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) CFO Keith Sherin defended his company's continued holding of NBC Universal and gave the media conglomerate a surprisingly high valuation of between $40 billion and $45 billion.

GE has been getting plenty of flack about holding on to NBC since it is not #1 or #2 in its market, as previous CEO Jack Welch would have wanted it to be. Sherin pointed out during a lunch meeting with me, my fellow blogger Jon Ogg and a few other writers that NBC is "priceless waterfront property." Sherin argued that Welch had picked up NBC from RCA at a relatively low price -- increasing its value from $3 billion to $10 billion. And in 2004, after forming NBC Universal with Vivendi Universal, the new entity was worth $32 billion. Sherin now estimates that NBC Universal is worth between $40 billion and $45 billion, although I am not sure I understand how he arrived at this figure.

Continue reading BloggingStocks Interview: GE CFO talks up NBC Universal

Top Picks 2007: Fun at the fair with Sy Harding

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Stocks Report.

Cedar Fair, LP (NYSE: FUN) is the top conservative stock pick for 2007 from Sy Harding, editor of Street Smart Report. He explains, "With its recent $1.2 billion acquisition of Paramount Parks from CBS Corp., Cedar Fair now operates 17 popular regional theme parks, and five water parks, in 13 states in the U.S. and one province of Canada.

"Cedar Fair is noted for exciting rides, with roller coaster enthusiasts traveling the Cedar Fair circuit on a regular basis to check out the latest offerings. For instance, its Cedar Point Park in Ohio now offers 65 rides and 16 roller coasters, including Top Thrill Dragster, the world's tallest and fastest coaster, and Millennium Force, the world's top-rated coaster for thrills.

"Thrill rides for the brave, water slides, wave action pools, and the like, are only a portion of the magnetism for customers. The parks are family oriented, with attractions for smaller children themed around the 'Peanuts' comic strip characters, and a variety of upscale hotels and restaurants for parents.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Fun at the fair with Sy Harding

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 05:33 AM

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