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Is Oracle a buy?

Earlier in the week, there was an item on a blog at Barrons.com concerning Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL). It was reported that two analysts revised their earnings estimates for the tech company in the downward direction (shareholders hate that!). Ross MacMillan of Jefferies & Co. took two pennies off his fiscal '09 estimate, reducing it to $1.43 per share. Tim Klasell of Thomas Weisel Partners thinks Oracle will do $1.44 per share; this was likewise a reduction of two pennies. I guess there's something about two pennies and Oracle this week. Both analysts have good ratings on Oracle and think the stock will trade higher from here.

And now, for my own two cents. As far as I'm concerned, I think Oracle is not necessarily a stock to jump into at the moment. The shares have been weak this year (of course, what hasn't been weak this year, I suppose), and at Friday's close of $16.32, they were sitting rather close to their 52-week low of $15.00. I would rather see Oracle pull further away from its low of the year before buying. I've been generally bearish on most stocks in the market, and I have to tell you, the recent rallying mood on Wall Street isn't something I have a lot of belief in. I believe Oracle may end up going lower from here once we get additional negative headlines on the macro environment. If I don't see strength, then I won't buy with any sort of conviction. If I wanted to take on some shares of a tech stock, I'd probably go with stronger brands, like a Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), or perhaps even an IBM (NYSE: IBM). Yes, Oracle is a big brand name as well, but I am not too partial to its stock, quite honestly (I do respect the company, though). However, even if I bought some Microsoft, my inclination right now would be to sell it the next time it makes a small move higher. In fact, I was trying to get hold of some Microsoft this week for a quick trade, but it just didn't happen.

Continue reading Is Oracle a buy?

Thomas Weisel feels the pain

So far this year, the IPO market has been dormant and M&A has been weak. There are also signs of a drop-off in venture capital fundings.

And all this is weighing on Thomas Weisel Partners Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: TWPG), which is a boutique investment bank. In Q1, investment banking revenues fell $11.5 million to $52.8 million. There were only 23 transactions, which compares to 49 in the same period a year ago. What's more, Thomas Weisel posted a loss of $17.8 million, or $0.54 per share.

So, are there any signs of improvement? Not really. Basically, the firm is now hoping that M&A transactions will pickup, as corporate clients realize that it is getting difficult to raise capital.

In light of this, it's no surprise that Thomas Weisel is cutting back. There will be a 13% reduction in headcount. And, keep in mind that -- at the beginning of the year -- the firm had already reduced headcount by 9%.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook (www.mergerbook.com) and is also a principal in Averiware, which provides an ERP system to small and midsize businesses.

Option update: Volatility up as AKAM trades near 16-month low into 3Q EPS

Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM), offers services for accelerating content and business processes online, is recently up .58 to $29.33. AKAM announced EPS will be reported on 10/24. AKAM call option volume of 17,326 contracts compares to put volume of 4,140 contracts. AKAM October option implied volatility is at 50, November is at 58; above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) designs, develops, manufacturers, and sells solar electric power products, systems, and services. SPWR will report EPS on 10/18. Thomas Weisel Partners-TWPT downgraded SPWR to Makeweight from Overweight on 10/1. TWPT says "investors have been bidding up the shares of SPWR over the last several months on expectations that a Federal Energy Bill will be a boon for the domestic photovoltaic industry." SPWR October call option implied volatility is at 53; puts are at 57, above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.


Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

SoundBite wants a piece of the IPO market

Ever get an automated message on the phone? It's actually a growing industry and is called automated voice messaging, or AVM.

A leader in the space is SoundBite Communications and the company has filed for its IPO this week.

SoundBite's system is completely Web-based. Thus, customers do not have to invest in IT personnel, hardware, servers and so on. Instead, they pay on a per-message or a per-minute basis.

With the service, customers can handle outbound communications like collections, customer care and marketing pitches.

In fact, SoundBite's system delivered nearly one billion calls in 2006. And revenues have been ramping – going from $7.8 million in 2004 to $29.1 million in last year. However, the company lost $160,000.

Based on a variety of research studies, the AVM market is forecasted to grow from $370 million in 2005 to $1.4 billion in 2010.

The underwriters for the IPO include Cowen (NASDAQ: COWN) and Thomas Weisel Partners (NASDAQ: TWPG). The proposed ticker symbol is SDBT.

You can also find the IPO filing at the SEC website.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 05:59 PM

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