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Serious Money: What's on your watch list?

There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to get back into the stock market. Maybe that time will be after the Dow Jones Industrial Average tests 7000, or even 6000. Maybe it will be after quarterly reports start turning positive. I'm sure many people will not do anything until the housing market turns around. Then there are those that have sworn off the stock market or at least individual stocks entirely.

These and a multitude of other issues may be keeping you from investing for now and no one could blame you, but if it is your intention to get back in when the coast is clear then you should be making some preparations by putting together your watch list.

Here are some of the stocks on my watch list. I usually have about 20 stocks that I am interested in. Some of them I own already and I am interested in acquiring more. Some have appeared in my Chasing Value column, and some or all might appear there again.

Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) is one of the stocks mentioned in Fortune Magazines "Ten Promising Stocks for 2009" and is currently paying almost a 15% yield at Fridays closing price of $14.92. The company borrows money at short term rates and only invests in long-term Federally backed mortgages. They have avoided subprime loans and derivatives entirely.

Boardwalk Partners (NYSE: BWP) is expanding and was highlighted today as another high yield value stock Chasing Value: High yield thru Boardwalk's pipes that you can acquire for less than the price the general partners paid in October.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) can claim Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) as it's largest shareholder and you can buy shares for less than 'my pal Warren' did.

Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) is one of my top holdings and favorite companies. I have owned it for years and only selling some shares at $192. I recently started building a new position in a new portfolio in the past few months and I am interested in buying more. It closed at 134.38 on Friday.

Continue reading Serious Money: What's on your watch list?

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) drops on lower forecast

TIF logoTiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF - option chain) shares are falling today after the company forecast 2008 EPS in a range between $2.30 and $2.50, below analysts' estimates of $2.58. TIF blamed weak consumer spending for the forecast. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TIF.

This morning, TGT opened at $18.66. So far today the stock has hit a low of $18.61 and a high of $21.50. As of 12:35, TIF is trading at $20.45, down $0.38 (-1.8%). The chart for TIF looks neutral and S&P gives TIF a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a February bear-call credit spread above the $30 range.

Continue reading Tiffany & Co. (TIF) drops on lower forecast

Chasing Value: Tiffany's -- all that glitters

"All that glitters is not gold" is a common refrain we hear from time to time and it is meant as a word of caution, but in this case, it's gold and diamonds and platinum served up in pretty little blue boxes. Today it was reported that Tiffany Profit Beats View, Hikes Outlook. Chief Executive Michael Kowalski said Tiffany would continue with its expansion in 2008, with plans to open 24 new stores across the United States, Asia-Pacific region and Europe.

Tiffany and Co (NYSE: TIF) is trading just under $50, up from $36 when I suggested readers take a look in February posting Serious Money: Pondering: Home Depot, Tiffany & Wells Fargo, and again a month later Chasing Value: Tiffany is looking more polished. I can live with a 39% gain in three months time, and I am glad to learn that it may go up from that.

However, no matter what the Wall Street stock pushers will tell you, I would not jump in here. Patience is in order and buying when there is a frenzy is a bad idea. You will see this in my previous posts on the company and I am offering the same here. You should add it to your watch list.

I do not expect TIF to see $36 dollars again, but we are speaking of likelihoods not certainties and there is no must own stock! Everything fluctuates and it is only worth buying an individual stock if there is a great chance of getting a bargain. I might look favorably at another purchase somewhere closer to $40 -- and if I do not get it, that's alright. Then I will buy something else.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: We own shares in TIF.

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) lifts guidance, boosts dividend

TIF logoTiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) shares are trading higher today after the company said it now expects to top its first-quarter earnings forecast of 39 cents per share. TIF also raised its dividend by 2 cents. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TIF.

After hitting a one-year high of $57.34 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $32.84 in January. TIF opened this morning at $45.91. So far today the stock has hit a low of $45.29 and a high of $48.95. As of 12:00, TIF is trading at $48.00, up 2.15 (4.7%). The chart for TIF looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 Stars (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $35 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just three months as long as TIF is above $35 at August expiration. Tiffany would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

TIF hasn't been below $35 except for a couple days in the past year and has shown support around $41 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy tanks some more in the coming months, but even if that happens, that position could be protected by support the stock might find just around $36, where it bottomed out in March.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TIF.

Analyst downgrades: BBBY, DSW and OPLK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Bed Bath & Beyond, DSW Inc and Oplink Comm were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) to Underweight from Neutral citing recent sales commentary from competitors and the difficult macro environment.
  • Oppenheimer cut DSW Inc (NYSE: DSW) to Perform from Outperform following the company's Q1 miss and lower than expected guidance, as they see little visibility in the coming quarters.
  • Piper downgraded shares of Oplink Communications (NASDAQ: OPLK) to Sell from Neutral following the company's negative earnings preannouncement and lowered their target to $9.00 from $14.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Chasing Value: Tiffany is looking more polished

We recently acquired shares of Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) at $36.00 ahead of its earnings report. We have been watching it for about 16 months and I thought there was increasing value as the stock started dropping from its 52 week high of $57.34. I had previously brought it to readers' attention in Serious Money: Pondering Home Depot, Tiffany & Wells Fargo. After we put TIF on our watch list, that seemed like all we could do, just watch as it continued to move up farther away from our perceived value. So we just decided to let this train leave the station without us. Then the train came back and rewarded our patience.

Tiffany is a brand name of historic magnitude, pays a dividend, has a business that is easy to understand and is expanding internationally. Yesterday, the stock closed at $43.56 as the company raised its outlook for the year. The stock price is now just above where it was when we started watching it, but long term there might still be value here. I should note that we will not add to our position at this level, but if it drops again we will.

The following ten year chart indicates a highly erratic stock that can swing wildly, as much as $20 in any given year. From 1999 to 2004, there was no appreciation. Interestingly, I would have thought these 20 point swings might be appealing to one of my colleagues who uses charts and is a trader, but it was not. He hated this chart and sees no upward momentum. I on the other hand see plenty to like.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Tiffany is looking more polished

Tiffany (TIF) earnings outlook shines bright

Shares of jewelry retailer Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) have been surging in early trading after the company posted stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings per share and issued a full-year earnings outlook above analysts' forecasts.

For the quarter, the company said that its profit slipped 16% to $118.3 million, or 89 cents per share, due to bad loans. These numbers are down from $140.5 million, or $1.02 per share, reported in the same period a year earlier. Included in the company's earnings figures were 22 cents per share related to a charge for loans made to Tahera Diamond Corp. Excluding that, Tiffany earnings numbers would have come to $1.27 a share. Analysts, on average, expected the company to show quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share.

The jewelry retailer posted growth of 10% for its fourth-quarter revenue, which climbed to $1.05 billion from $958.9 million a year earlier. Sales matched analysts' forecasts, according to Thomson Financial. U.S. retail sales showed a gain of only 4% to $527.9 million, following slowing same-store sales, while international sales surged 21% to $422.6 million.

Continue reading Tiffany (TIF) earnings outlook shines bright

Dow below 12,000 -- do I hear 11,000? Yes I do!

Earlier in the week I posted about finding the market bottom using that age-old handheld calculator, a white paper napkin. So, unfortunately it looks like I may be right again. Not exactly something I was hoping for, but if it has to be, it has to be. I wonder if my old napkin can outperform Wall Street super computers?

Is this an auction to the bottom? Are investors bidding things down instead of up? Looks like it from all the negative sentiment. Consumer sentiment is down, and short sellers are all excited, increasing their negative positions to new highs every day.

And here is the all-telling sign of capitulation: the ever-lying overly optimistic government is starting to admit how bad things are and throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem. When does the turnaround come?

Continue reading Dow below 12,000 -- do I hear 11,000? Yes I do!

Tiffany, eBay in knockdown over knockoffs

If you had an empty parking lot and rented out spaces for a flea market, would you take responsibility for what was being sold there? No doubt you would draw the line at child porn, dope and other illegal goods. But how about the vendor selling fake Rolex watches?

eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) is facing the same dilemma in the lawsuit brought by Tiffany and Co. (NYSE: TIF) as Zac Bissonette previewed here last week. The trial proceeding have come to a close, and the judge has promised a decision by next month (just in time for Christmas!), one that could challenge eBay's entire business model. If eBay is held responsible for fake Tiffany items sold on its site, look for other often-counterfeited brands to immediately demand the same treatment. Verification processes would, I believe, be both costly and intrusive.

It's no secret that eBay faces constant criticism for providing an avenue for fencing stolen goods, one so prevalent many police departments routinely browse the offerings looking for those taken in local heists. The company cooperates with law enforcement and has taken measures, such as capping weekly item postings, to limit the problem. However, the willingness of the buying public to turn blind eyes to the source of these 'deals too good to pass up' make elimination of the problem next to impossible.

Will the company making the market be held responsible for the actions of those taking part? A quarter of a billion eBay users are waiting for the judge's decision.

The price of gold: Will it ruin the jeweler's Christmas?

As the price of gold climbs, I wondered how this might impact jewelers such as Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), Signet Group plc (ADR) (NYSE: SIG), Blue Nile, Inc. (NASDAQ: NILE) and even Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A), which has large holdings in the industry. To explore this question, I talked with Amanda Gizi, Spokesperson for the Jewelry Information Center, which represents the fine jewelry and watch industries.

How will the increase in gold prices impact jewelers this Christmas season?

According to Gizi, most of the stock for the upcoming season has already been purchased, and while the price of gold might fluctuate, jewelers are not prone to adjust prices with every blip of the market.

How does this market differ from 1980, when jewelry sales suffered greatly under $900 gold?

Gizi pointed out that, given inflation, the current $700+ gold is not nearly as expensive as $900 gold was in 1980 dollars. Using the Bureau of Labor Statistic's inflation calculator, I found that gold would have to reach $2,270.94 in today's market to equal the value at its 1980 peak.

How would you assess the conjecture of CLSA Chief Strategist Christopher Wood, as reported by BloggingStock's Weld Royal, that gold could reach $3,400 in the next three years?

Gizi considered this unrealistic, given the market's history.

She went on to tell me that despite its sharp price increase, platinum continues to be a popular jewelry choice, especially in bridal selections, and other metals such as palladium and tungsten carbide are increasingly found in men's jewelry.

In gemstones, she told me fancies (gems in colors other than their common form, such as pink sapphires, blue diamonds, etc.) are very hot on the market now.

Her take on the industry? $700 gold isn't going to scare the merchants, and they don't expect it to scare away the customers, either.

My take? The cost of the gold in a piece of fine jewelry, at best, represents no more than 5-10% of the sale price, so the price of gold will have to increase a great deal before it severely impacts the jewelry trade. Don't sell your Tiffany and Co. out of gold fear.

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DJIA-1.1410,449.81
NASDAQ-5.302,170.71
S&P 500+0.971,107.21

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 02:58 PM

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