TimothySykes posts
FeedPosted Jan 20th 2009 6:15PM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), General Electric (GE), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Palm Inc (PALM), Politics, Obama Picks

1. When
I Twittered that Obama's speech was just propaganda and that my readers would be better served by focusing on bettering themselves, it inspired a 40+ comment chain on my Facebook profile. The lesson here is that people become very attached to their beliefs, like their stocks, no matter what any naysayer thinks, and many still believe in "quality investments" like
Google Inc (NASDAQ:
GOOG),
General Electric Co. (NYSE:
GE) and
Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:
GS), each now down more than 50% in just a few months.
2. Propaganda works only for so long before it backfires -- Obama better come through on what he says or it'll be just another case of the "Steve Jobs is fine" rhetoric that has proven false and now taken down
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:
AAPL), which has just broken through the key $80 support I talked about
recently. That may make it a great technical short for aggressive traders, but not for me; I'm a conservative short selling penny stock day trader.
3. Politics is eerily similar to the stock market, those who inspire and make people the most excited rise to the top.
Continue reading Five lessons for investors from Obama's inauguration speech
Posted Jan 15th 2009 12:30PM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), General Electric (GE), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Sprint Nextel Corp (S), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Stock screen, Stocks to Sell
I

t's been a long time since I wrote here, mainly because I've been busy busting my butt. I was up 197% in 2008, every trade detailed
HERE for your learning pleasure, becoming
the #1 ranked trader, out of 15,000+ on Covestor.com and growing
my blog's monthly income to over $80,000 -- so yes, 2008 was a very very good year for me.
Here are five tips I'd like to pass on to help you in 2009:
1. Be honest and admit mistakes quickly. Too many people in finance these days are having problems fessing up and it not only hurts their reputation. It hurts their business and performance too!
2. Learn from your mistakes---even more important than admitting them, you must take it to the next level and learn, unlike value investors who just keep adding to their losing positions in
Bank of America (NYSE:
BAC),
General Electric Co. (NYSE:
GE) and
Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:
GS).
Continue reading Five tips from a trader who earned 197% in 2008
Posted Jun 24th 2008 8:52AM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Newcastle Investment (NCT)
Monday was an extremely trying day for my portfolio and me. Talk about depressing. Let's see, CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) took a dive of almost 15% on hellishly high volume (it traded more than 17 million shares on Monday, and AOL Finance lists the 30-day average volume as being a little under 3 million shares) on news about a money-losing sale of assets. Now, once I saw CapitalSource moving down, I knew that Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) wasn't going to be trading higher. Sure enough, there was indeed something new at Newcastle. A new 52-week low. The stock closed Monday at $7.06, down 10% and one penny above the low. And then there's MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA). It too was down, although only about 2%. Yeah, only. All of these stocks are at prices well below my cost basis.
I'm at that weird crossroads all investors find themselves at some point. Is it too late to sell? Let me tell you, I don't want to be one of those panic sellers who regrets dumping his stocks because as soon as he does so they start to rise. But, I don't want to be one of those holders who doesn't know when enough is enough. It's pretty rough. You don't know whether to add to positions that are faring poorly and thus risk throwing away money, or whether to avoid adding money and thus risk not getting some bargain prices. And in terms of Newcastle, my colleague Sheldon Liber is with me on this. He thinks the stock may turn out to be a value. See this article.
My other colleague, Timothy Sykes, has counseled me to instead focus on strong stocks that are working. I can't say he doesn't have a point. Indeed, my portfolio does seem rather masochistic. For now, though, I will try to avoid any emotional decisions. I am going to continue to watch the financial carnage as it further unfolds and evaluate every potential stock trade very carefully. This summer is going to be a tough one. I'll let you know what happens.
Disclosure I own CapitalSource, MFA, and Newcastle Investment; positions can change at any time.
Posted Jun 23rd 2008 9:15AM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), General Electric (GE), Exxon Mobil (XOM), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), , Broadcom Corp'A' (BRCM), Technical Analysis, Stocks to Sell
Don't know where the market is headed?
Some people think a full blown crash is possible; some believe this is a good time to buy while others just don't know what to believe. Well, I just don't care and neither should you.
Because if you're like me, you've learned to take everything one high percentage profit trade at a time, whether you're betting on higher or lower prices. That's right, I'm talking about easy individual market inefficiencies like
THIS.
As for the markets a whole, it's the same pathetic guessing game it'll always be, filled with plenty of "gurus" with polished-sounding theories where only a few truly brilliant hedge fund managers guess correctly with the rest of us just trying not to pull a Bill Miller (look foolish).
Continue reading Why you must learn short selling to survive this market
Posted Jun 13th 2008 11:32AM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Short stories, Define investing
Judging from previous articles like
this, can you guess what I'm going to write about? By now I think you should know my core beliefs-while everyone and their mother is covering the wheeling and dealings of hugely important corporations hence efficient stocks like
Google Inc (NASDAQ:
GOOG),
Yahoo Inc (NASDAQ:
YHOO) and
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:
MSFT),
my blog's readers and I are having much more fun profiting from trading mostly short selling...well actually all short selling-smaller infinitely more inefficiently priced companies like GRO, PTEK and STXX, all of which were "pumped up" by various temporary catalysts.
For
Agria Corp (NYSE:
GRO), it was message board hype,
PokerTek Inc (NASDAQ:
PTEK) had a combination of message board hype, rumors and press coverage and
South Texas Oil Co (NASDAQ:
STXX) got a stock promoter mention, and now that those temporary catalysts have come and gone, all three have reversed hard off their highs. And mind you, while many pumps are accomplished on the infinitely ore sketchy OTCBB and Pink Sheet exchanges, all three of these companies are trades on more reputable markets like the NYSE and NASDAQ. And yes, I profited solidly on all three, increasing my
yearly gain to around 40%.Now I'm looking at stocks like
Source Interlink (NASDAQ:
SORC) as a potential short, which is up on insider buying, a catalyst I don't respect, but since there's not enough space for me to cover all the details of exactly what I look for here--it's about chart patterns, price action and volume. Today, I am doing a special Friday the 13th marathon episode of
my LiveStock show. To the untrained eye, I know these small stocks seem scary, but maybe after this journey, I can help you better understand them.
Timothy Sykes writes the blog timothysykes.com, is a former hedge fund manager, star of the TV show Wall Street Warriors and author of the book, An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge FundPosted Jun 6th 2008 11:45AM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Magazines, Media World
I have to admit, I completely missed this move. I usually keep tabs on Playboy (NYSE: PLA)'s stock action. Not very close tabs, truthfully, but I do check in somewhat regularly. I was shocked when I saw how low the stock had recently dropped. Back in the first week of May, when I reported on the adult-entertainment entity's earnings, the stock was trading around $7.25. As of Thursday's close, the stock was priced at $5.85 per share. The 52-week low now stands at $5.52. TheStreet.com recently cursed the stock to sell status.
That's a steep move in such a short period of time, and now I have to ask myself: Is the stock a trade? I mean, a thought that immediately came to my mind upon seeing the current share price was that the Wall Street movers and shakers may have overshot on the selling here.
But then, other thoughts came to mind such as how badly the company has been doing. Also, as Zac Bissonnette recently pointed out, pornography isn't really recession-proof at all in this age of the Internet. Seekers of adult entertainment have seen their wallets benefit from the proliferation of the clip culture as expressed by sites like YouTube and its more porn-friendly counterparts.
Continue reading What the heck happened to Playboy (PLA)'s stock?
Posted May 27th 2008 11:11AM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Gap Inc (GPS), Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF), Under Armour'A' (UA), Technical Analysis, Stock screen, Liz Claiborne (LIZ), Stocks to Buy, Recession

I know, I know, with the economy sputtering, why would you ever want to be invested in an apparel company that produces expensive jeans? Let alone have it recommended by a typically
short-selling trader like me! But before I tell you the name of this stock that despite the obvious economic problems -- strong oil, weak housing and the dollar, mounting foreclosure, etc -- is sitting right near all-time highs, looking to break out, let's do a quick rundown of its competitors in the apparel retail space.
There's
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp (NYSE:
RL) and
Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:
LULU), which after substantial runups and crushing drops off their highs, have been trying to find their footing. Then there are steady downtrenders
Under Armour Inc (NYSE:
UA), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO),
Pacific Sunwear of California (NASDAQ:
PSUN),
Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE:
LIZ) and
Bebe Stores (NASDAQ:
BEBE). And last but certainly not least, the stock-that's-gone-absolutely-nowhere-for-the-past-six-years-meaning-its-been-useless-for-both-longs-and-shorts
The Gap Inc (NYSE:
GPS).
Continue reading Dress up your portfolio with this apparel stock (TRLG)
Posted May 19th 2008 1:00PM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple Inc (AAPL), Pfizer (PFE), Intel (INTC), Ford Motor (F), Citigroup Inc. (C), Technical Analysis, Stock screen, Stocks to Buy

Forget about overwhelmingly random stock market noise and small daily percentage moves exemplified by the likes of all the most popular names such as
Yahoo! Inc (Nasdaq:
YHOO),
Citigroup Inc (NYSE:
C),
Pfizer Inc (NYSE:
PFE),
Google Inc (Nasdaq:
GOOG) and
Apple Inc (Nasdaq:
AAPL). Don't be fooled by the all-too-frequent daily commentary-those stocks are really only good for long-term investors and the few truly professional traders out there.
If you're neither, focus more on market inefficiencies because not only are they more predictable, but they're ideal for smaller investors and traders thanks to their illiquidity. Meaning the market offers up these high profit probability opportunities that the big boys can't and won't take advantage of-they're strictly for us little guys.
I'm talking about price moves created by the quirks of the finance industry itself-namely the media circus, stock promoters and hype that influence the great derided microcap market. For example, when
a CNBC reporter inadvertently suckers amateurs by pumping a penny stock (good short selling opportunity as the stock is now down 50% in a month) or when a stock promoter is
paid to hype a stock (another one down 50%+ in one month since).
Continue reading Step aside popular stocks, it's time for smaller more volatile plays
Posted Apr 7th 2008 10:10AM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Technical Analysis, , Stocks to Buy, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT)

In
this April 1st article, I wasn't kidding around when I chose less popular stocks over hotly debated names like
Google (NASDAQ:
GOOG),
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:
AAPL) and
Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE:
LEH). Because investing is not blogging-the amount of hits, traffic and debate a topic stirs up does not help you make money (in fact it might hinder it considering all the cheerleaders are already invested).
Instead, as I often say in posts
like this and as I yell to random passers-by on the streets of NYC (for fun), "it's all about the charts, stupid!"
Now, one week later from that article, ask me if I am surprised to see 2 out of the 3 stocks from last week's article-
Weatherford International (NYSE:
WFT) and
United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:
X) continuing to breaking out to new highs, with
Illumina Inc (NASDAQ:
ILMN) "struggling" up only 4% on the week, a few cents off its highs.
Continue reading Some more stocks breaking out to new highs
Posted Apr 2nd 2008 4:10PM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Other issues, Products and services, Industry, Consumer experience, Rants and raves, Competitive strategy, Amazon.com (AMZN), Marketing and advertising, Books
In the last few days, bookselling giant Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) has made a few more enemies in the publishing world by forcing the little-known group of print-on-demand (POD) publishers to either submit to using its POD subsidiary, Booksurge, or risk being prohibited from selling on its industry-leading website. No matter the cost and complications of breaking off relationships with other vendors, reformatting books and a host of other problems, Amazon laid down the law, saying convert -- and do it quickly -- or face the consequences.
What's more disconcerting is that an official press release was made public only after smaller publishers like Angela Hoy of Booklocker.com started writing publicly about blackmail-type phone calls from Booksurge representatives. Fearful of losing their businesses literally overnight, many POD publishers such as iUniverse and Lulu have capitulated while strong willed publisher PublishAmerica refused to give in -- and was quickly made an example of when Amazon disabled the buy buttons on their book titles!
As an author selling my own critically-acclaimed POD book An American Hedge Fund on Amazon, outrage has compelled me to write about how unethical and more importantly, monopolistic this all is.
Continue reading Amazon bullying raises monopoly and business concerns
Posted Apr 1st 2008 12:35PM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), U.S. Steel (X), Technical Analysis, Las Vegas Sands (LVS), , , Stocks to Buy
Google (NASDAQ:
GOOG) this,
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:
AAPL) that, will
Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE:
LEH) follow
Bear Stearns (NYSE:
BSC) -- bleh, all hotly debated, all random market noise! Noise that you must learn to ignore.
The financial media -- envious of the fat profits generated by such entertainment-based businesses as
World Wrestling Entertainment Inc (NYSE:
WWE),
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:
LVS) and
Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:
WYNN) -- has brainwashed you into believing that in order to make money in the stock market, you must keep up to date with every single headline and development in the business world. Hogwash!
I have no problem with financial entertainment, but I do take issue with all these media outlets making their content out to be useful to investors. I've repeatedly echoed this theme in articles like
this and I don't expect this industry to change anytime soon, but I am going to keep preaching so you will better understand how low your chances of success are if you bet on the most popular -- hence the most efficient -- topics du jour. Unless you are George Soros or Warren Buffett or a few other wealthy elderly men, there is always somebody better informed and more intelligent than you are. Hence, you are always at a disadvantage.
Continue reading Ignore random market noise and focus on lesser known names
Posted Mar 31st 2008 12:28PM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE), Wal-Mart (WMT), Intel (INTC), Ford Motor (F), Home Depot (HD), Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), Applied Materials (AMAT), Bank of America (BAC), , , , Gilead Sciences (GILD), , Stocks to Buy, Stocks to Sell
Continue reading What the charts of these 20 stocks are trying to tell you
Posted Mar 26th 2008 11:12AM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Other issues, eBay (EBAY), Next big thing, Technical Analysis, Agriculture, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT)

If you've ever delved into investing in ETFs (exchange-traded funds, basically entire indexes and sectors that trade like stocks), you're already familiar with the most popular, those being
Powershares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq:
QQQQ),
SPDR Trust Series 1 (AMEX:
SPY),
Diamonds Trust, Series 1 (AMEX:
DIA),
iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE:
IWM) and lately
Financial Select SPDR (AMEX:
XLF) and
UltraShort QQQ ProShares (AMEX:
QID). But have you ever looked into those that are much less followed, but more capable of yielding some big-time returns?
I
primarily trade fun smallcap stocks, so until the past few days, I hadn't either. But when I began researching, I just kept finding more and more interesting ETFs -- it was addictive! Almost addictive as my new
Twitter account where I've discovered I can chat with business legends, yesterday it was the founder of
eBay Inc (Nasdaq:
EBAY). Okay, maybe ETFs will never be that addictive!
Out the few hundred ETFs I looked into, here were some of the more interesting of the bunch:
Continue reading ETFs every investor should know
Posted Mar 13th 2008 5:30PM by Timothy Sykes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Blogs, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple Inc (AAPL), About the stock bloggers, Short stories, Next big thing, Scandals, Walt Disney (DIS), Viacom (VIA), Media World, Technology
It was just an average Wednesday night for me-researching potential stock plays, working on some blog posts and catching up on many overdue emails, all to further my goal of becoming Cramer 2.0-when I saw a post on
EliteTrader.com that linked to
The Smoking Gun exposing Governor Spitzer's call girl "Kristen" as 22-year-old Ashley Alexandra Dupre. Apparently, Kristen was/is her professional name. Always one to jump when opportunity knocks, I raced to dig up everything I could on Ms. Dupre to post on
my blog and break some news of my own. What happened next might or might not blow your mind.
Several websites had already linked to her
MySpace profile (owned by
News Corp. (NYSE:
NWS) so I went there and grabbed her photos to add to my story. The other sites had used the photos, too, but the pictures were all tiny and spread out over multiple pages (no doubt to increase their hits and subsequently their
Yahoo! (Nasdaq:
YHOO) ads, so I saw opportunity in providing them all on one page just as they were. But I didn't stop there.
I also searched other social networks like Facebook and bingo, she had
a profile there! That would be "my exclusive." A few more clicks and the post was published. Within minutes,
Google (Nasdaq:
GOOG) has indexed my article and while I was late to the party, my "Facebook Exclusive" made my story unique and the hits tumbled in. I'm used to 200-ish visitors/hour, but thanks to this one simple post, 1,500 people visited my site within the first 45 minutes. And that's when things got interesting.
Continue reading My online chat with Spitzer's call girl, Ashley Alexandra Dupre (or at least I think it was her)
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