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Options Update: Microsoft volatility low into EPS and Window 7

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) closed at $26.58. MSFT is scheduled to report Q1 on October 23. MSFT's Window 7 is expected to be generally available on October 22. MSFT November option implied volatility is at 28, November is at 26; below its 26-week average of 31, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Titanium Metals (NYSE: TIE) closed at $10.06. TIE, a worldwide producer of titanium metal products, is expected to be a supplier of materials for the Boeing (BA) 787 Dreamliner. TIE Q3 EPS are expected in early November. TIE November option implied volatility is at 54, December is at 53; below its 26-week average of 67, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Titanium Metals (TIE) to be added to S&P 500

TIE logoTitanium Metals Corp. (NYSE: TIE) shares are jumping today after Standard & Poor's announced that the stock will be added to the S&P 500, replacing Bausch & Lomb (NYSE: BOL). When stocks are added to these major indices, they often find a natural floor for a while due to the increased demand for that security by mutual funds and the like. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TIE.

After hitting a one-year high of $39.80 in May, the stock slipped to a 52-week low of $25.75 in August. TIE opened this morning at $33.28. So far today the stock has hit a low of $32.56 and a high of $33.34. As of 11:10, TIE is trading at $32.71, up 99 cents(3.1%). The chart for TIE looks bullish with slight deterioration.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just 3 months as long as TIE is above $25 at January expiration. Titanium Metals would have to fall by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

TIE hasn't been below $25 at all in the last year and has shown support recently above $31. This trade could be risky if the demand for titanium slows, but this position could be protected by the increased demand for the stock, as well as the current boom in the airplane manufacturing industry, which is a major buyer of titanium.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.


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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 03:15 AM

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