Pharmaceuticals have been alive and merging. The most recent deal is this morning's news that Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) wants CV Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CVTX), which comes on the heals Roche's purchase of Genentech(NYSE:DNA) and Merck's (NYSE:MRK) proposed merger with Schering Plough(NYSE:SGP).

Continue reading Buying the action in biotech

Buying the action in biotech originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 12 Mar 2009 14:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading UBS making up for lost time

UBS making up for lost time originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Mar 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

To highlight defense names in the face of the current spending priorities feels like soaking in gasoline and walking around smoking a cigarette. With that visual as a backdrop, it is also fair to say that Obama is probably just as focused on protecting the motherland as Bush was, and, much as he may dislike it, that will force continued if not increased spending in certain areas of defense. The one name I have been drooling over for years and which is finally coming together in many respects is L-3 Communication (NYSE: LLL).

Continue reading L-3 Communication: A stock to watch in the defense sector

L-3 Communication: A stock to watch in the defense sector originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Jason Goepfert.

Regarding an observation I saw on the Dow's six straight losses, I show it's happened roughly every 20 years since 1896.

The last occurrence wasn't that long ago, September 2002, though a couple of those months were just barely negative and may actually show a positive return depending on who your data vendor is.

Anyway, what I think is interesting is that the Dow's performance after the others was mixed when looking out one to three months -- sometimes up, sometimes down. After six months, only two of the six were positive and the average risk during those six months was -11%, compared to an average reward of +8%.

Continue reading An interesting trend in the Dow

An interesting trend in the Dow originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 01 Mar 2009 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Nationalization on demand

Nationalization on demand originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Smita Sadana.

On 2/2, a trading buddy asked me if I would short MasterCard (MA); reason being that financials are looking weak and MA has reached 50-day moving average which could act as a possible resistance and might turn the stock down.

My reply was a unequivocal NO, I wouldn't short MA. Here were the reasons.

1) Financials are weak, down 11% from the high; but notice that MA has not given way. Reaching 50-day moving average is another sign of strength. I don't engage in horse racing, but placing a bet that a strong horse among a group of weak horses will lose, didn't seem right to me!

Continue reading Not taking the MasterCard trade: Priceless

Not taking the MasterCard trade: Priceless originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Feb 2009 13:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Bill Feingold.

With SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) -- which turned down a $26 per share bid from Samsung last fall -- now talking about raising equity at well below half that price, I think shareholders are going to be beyond irate. In what appears to be one of the great breaches of fiduciary duty of all time, management belittled Samsung for being opportunistic, trying to take advantage of a depressed stock price.

Funny, I thought that once you go public, you have made a deal that you are willing to accept the market's opinion of your value. I guess Sandisk's management somehow acquired immunity and forgot to tell everyone else.

Continue reading SanDisk in the breach

SanDisk in the breach originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Feb 2009 14:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.

Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) reports tonight and it is getting hit due to the poor report from Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM). QCOM lowered guidance quite a bit -- in fact, enough that I likely may not have to worry much about QCOM for the next couple quarters. Low $30's would present solid value.

Getting back to BRCM, I still feel it is one of the few must own chip names. I think it has enough innovation and diversification to avoid the 35-40% sequential reductions I am seeing from many in the chip space. However, I also think a lowering of the bar is priced into BRCM's shares and anything less than a disaster should keep the stock above $16.50 (assuming we avoid another shock down to the whole market). Anything around that level ($16.50) and lower would have me adding the shares. I've taken gains recently in trading shares and am hoping to add BRCM back on just a bit more weakness.

Continue reading Chipmaker earnings and other top tech news

Chipmaker earnings and other top tech news originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Just after the close yesterday, Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) guided up 2009 production and guided 2009 cash costs lower. NEM also announced that it would be purchasing the remaining interest in its majority owned Boddington Mine from Anglogold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) (which equates to 6.6 mln reserve ounces). That's an increase of 8 percent in NEM's Proven & Probable (P&P) reserves at a price tag of $1.2 bln, which will be raised via an equity offering of 19 mln shares.

Based on NEM's 441 mln shares outstanding, we're looking at dilution of just over 4 percent. Thus, in theory, the deal is not even dilutive, given the 8 percent increase in P&P reserves that the company is acquiring with only a 4 percent dilution in equity. Based on what I have seen so far, this looks like a spectacular deal for NEM.

Continue reading Newmont strikes a deal

Newmont strikes a deal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Jan 2009 12:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis.

Banro (NYSE: BAA) jumped 13% yesterday after the company announced that it had finally completed its bankable feasibility study on its Twangiza project and proved up nearly 4 mln ounces of its 10 mln ounce resource. Thus, we can now calculate an NAV for BAA.

BAA has no debt. So, assuming $1,000 gold, 3.67 mln ounces of Proven & Probable reserves, an average cash cost of $429 per ounce over the life of the mine (which is based on the feasibility study), and the estimated $410 mln required for cap ex, we get an NAV of almost $15 a share (which gives zero value to the company's current cash balance of around $20 mln and its remaining 5.6 mln ounce resource at Twangiza, not to mention the resource estimates at its other properties).

Continue reading Banro (BAA): A golden stock

Banro (BAA): A golden stock originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 Jan 2009 13:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Institutional toe dipping with HES, RIMM and VMW originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 23 Jan 2009 15:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The dismantling of the financial stocks is mind-boggling but not entirely unexpected. Last year, we discussed the need for culpability to extend throughout the societal spectrum, from borrowers who over-extended on their credit to the institutions that financially engineered risk to policy makers who were compliant by acceptance.

The fact that many of these names are going to Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) is perhaps the healthiest possible scenario through the lens of "taking medicine as a function of time and price." It is, however, massively unfortunate for the employees who simply followed marching orders.

We're talking livelihoods lost here. Life savings evaporated. Careers ruined.

Therein lies the "other side" of the aforementioned "healthy" scenario: societal and structural implications. We've talked about the former ad naseum so I don't think we need to beat that horse. On the structural side -- and something to keep in mind for those calling for the heads of financial professionals -- is the fact that if there isn't incentive for people to fix the system, it simply won't get fixed.

Incentive on Wall Street equals money. The industry will be austere and ripe with humility, mind you, but we must find our way to a healthy supply-demand and a balanced give-and-take. For if we don't crack the code in short order, we risk that our capital market structure will cease to exist altogether.

The bank shot originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 Jan 2009 17:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Smita Sadana.

Apollo Group (Nasdaq: APOL) was enjoying a bump in price after reporting earnings that were well above estimates, based in increased enrollments. Of course, one can argue that people would go back to school for skill enhancement in these tough recessionary times.

However, two days after that stunning gain, APOL is off 4.9% to $82.55, on a cautious research note from Citron Research, who argue that "this growth is a one time bump."

While I do not endorse any such research or base my trading primarily on it, I am taking note of the negative reaction on double the average volume.

The stock can certainly come in a little and reduce the distance from its 200-day moving average, which is 38% at the current levels. While not at an extreme, it is unusual in this market to find stocks which are trading so far out.

I'm seeing various levels of support on the APOL chart and they range from $75 to $79.

Cautious research note crimps Apollo (APOL) flight originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Jan 2009 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Vitaliy Katsenelson.

"You should buy Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), PACCAR (NASDAQ: PCAR)." That is what I hear from friends of mine, who are in the biz, all the time. They tell me how cheap these stocks are -- three, six, eight times earnings. "You are a value guy! How come you are not loading up on them?" they ask.

Let me tell you when I'll buy "stuff" stocks (if I ever do, because I've never really cared for the cyclicality of that business). It's when everyone stops telling me how cheap they are and that they are "buys."

These stocks are very similar to housing stocks two years ago: housing stocks were down 50% and looked cheap. Value managers bought just to see their stocks get cut in half again and again.

One needs to subnormalize earnings in this environment for all stocks, but stuff stocks need to see their earnings to be "sub-sub-sub-sub normalized." I've said it before, but it is worth repeating: the global economy just started its journey into a recession, and demand for stuff will drop off the cliff most likely to a lot greater degree than anyone imagines.

Continue reading 'Stuff' stocks look cheap?: Caterpillar, Freeport McMoRan, PACCAR

'Stuff' stocks look cheap?: Caterpillar, Freeport McMoRan, PACCAR originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 25 Nov 2008 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.

Emerging strength in networking stocks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

• We're gonna have French Toast for breakfast, French Fries for lunch and French Poodles for dinner in honor of our most recent socialist step. This is a historic juncture in the history of the world, as we edge through interesting times.
  
  
• I spoke about this on CNBC in 2003 -- yes, I had more hair and less chin -- and felt like I was screaming about a monster nobody yet saw. Now granted, I was five years early and there were a LOT of opportunities between then and now but "socialism," "stagflation" and the perils of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) were officially flagged.
  
  
• Why do I highlight this? Simple -- the issues existed five years ago and have cumulatively built since, percolating under the system, growing in magnitude, magnifying in consequence. That's why there isn't a single, simple solution.
  
  

Continue reading Should the government have let AIG fail?

Should the government have let AIG fail? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 17 Sep 2008 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Minyanville Professor Minyan Peter dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

As many people have heard before, there are only two times a company issues common stock: When it absolutely has to or when it is stupid not to.

Well yesterday's issuance by US Airways (NYSE: LCC) may represent that once in a lifetime opportunity to see those seemingly contradictory principles in action at the same time. Having seen its stock trade at $1.45 not a month ago, $8.50 must seem pretty sweet to US Airways management, particularly with strong technical resistance at $10.00 providing a pretty strong ceiling above.

With airline stocks trading as the most leveraged play on the price declines in oil, I can understand why US Airways management took advantage of the window being open to issue stock. But just because the issuance window is open, doesn't mean investors should jump.

US Airways Opens Issuance Window for Stock originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 15 Aug 2008 14:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

The earnings report from Applied Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT) was not solid but the stock sure is, which is what happens when the market starts looking at enterprise value beyond a quarterly EPS report. The stock has been cheap for some time with only the solar catalyst providing occasional lift. Contrary to other noteworthy opinions, I have not heard AMAT call a bottom or "trough" in the cycle for many a quarterly call. It has called for a reduction in the decline in certain product lines, while calling for strength in others. But as far as a broad cyclical "trough" this is the first I heard them utter that since 2005 -- and at that point the company was half right and half wrong.

Lam Research Corporation (Nasdaq: LRCX) had the best report I've seen in the sub-group. If the (SOX) keeps showing strength then I presume the group may be led by the high quality semi-caps possibly through the first quarter of 2009.

Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE) report was also noteworthy as the shares have really been hammered of late. The company beat and raised revenue guidance by a touch. However, the thing that has kept me out of CREE for more than just an occasional trade is the lack of EPS traction it seems to have, even on higher revenues. And next quarter's guidance is more evidence of that. From time to time CREE can ramp, and when it does, it's usually a compelling move. So I mainly keep the name on the radar as a technical trading vehicle. If CREE were to back fill to the mid $19's I may add a partial.

Applied Materials' upside surprise originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 13 Aug 2008 15:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Editor's Note: This post was written by Terry Woo, one of Minyanville's sharpest minds AND/OR brightest bulbs. For more perspective AND/OR insight, visit www.minyanville.com.

Crude oil is trading lower for a third day in a row.

Currently there's talk out there of demand destruction in other countries (i.e. China's slowing economic growth and slowing U.S. economy). But I don't think there has been enough coverage on financial television regarding Iran.

Remember crude's breakout when the world speculated Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. And remember more upward pressure when Iran retaliated by test firing its long-range missiles.

As reported by CNN yesterday, Undersecretary of State William Burns is accompanying an EU delegation and will meet with a top Iranian nuclear official... something that hasn't happened in decades! It's a game changing event. That combined with North Korea (cooperating with the world in giving up its pursuit of nuclear weapons), I believe this is simply the Iranian risk premium being taken out of the price of oil.

The Iran factor in crude oil prices originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading StockWatch: Between the Bells with Todd Harrison

StockWatch: Between the Bells with Todd Harrison originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 29 Oct 2007 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.