The market rallied strongly on the Fed's announcement today and shot up about 2.5%. The Fed, chaired by Bernanke, cut rates by one half point surprising Wall Street which only expected a quarter point cut.
To excerpt the Feds announcement: "Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time."
The NYSE had volume of 3.6 billion shares with 3,013 shares advancing while 345 declined for a gain of 301.28 points to close at 9,909.03. On the NASDAQ, 2.1 billion shares traded, 2,359 advanced and 657 declined for a gain of 70.00 to 2,651.66.
According to an article published by Bloomberg Cheapest Stocks in 16 years draws investors, "Investors are preparing to snap up shares of telephone, health-care and computer companies after last week's $2.1 trillion global stock market rout left U.S. equities the cheapest in 16 years."
I am always pondering stock valuations in search of bargains and have been thinking that there are many bargains to be had. Having come to this conclusion though is not based on the relative market strength or weakness, or whether the over all market is cheap or not. I am not interested in bear markets or bull markets. The average investor should view all markets and promoters of said markets as full of bull. The best way to invest in stocks is the same way you invest in friends - one by one, respectfully, fairly and refraining from judging the proverbial book by it's cover. You should look deeper and think long term.
Some companies have reported terrific earnings Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and some have been lackluster Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Some have been dismal like housing stocks Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL). While one could make the argument that stock valuations are at a low point there is more to the story.
Since valuations -- think price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios -- are at a cumulative low, and the market prices stocks based on future earnings and growth of equity potential, then one has to assume the brokerage houses, investment banks, hedge funds, institutions and the like have priced in a continuation of the same low interest, high liquidity conditions that lead to this economic situation. I do not have such clarity in regards to this future.
Maybe the headline should not read "Stocks are the cheapest they have been in 16 years", maybe it should read "Large investors are more tenative than they have been in 16 years". After all look how fast they were jumping ship last Thursday and Friday. In any event, I will continue to write about specific opportunities and resist characterising the over all markets.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.
Disclosure: As of this writing I own shares of ISRG and JNJ.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.
If you are a regular reader of my blogs (like Ethan, who I quote below), you know I try to be accountable for my positions and try to share real experiences that I am going through in my investment world as well as I comment on things affecting the world of stocks and business in general. This week I posted: Frantic market: Retail up, retail down...who cares?, as the market darted up and down and back up. I think it is important to offer a sober perspective among all the noise. Most of what you hear is noise.
Ethan wrote me: "Thank you for the rational non-exuberance blog on market forces. I do have to ask about the particular "crushed" housing market on home building companies as such for being the "Sell" and "Avoid" industry currently. While there is a rumor today about Buffett's bid for Hovanian Enterprise (HOV), do you personally see any value and fundamental still within the industry, to name a few stocks that do give dividends (DHI, PHM, LEN, CTX, KBH, MDC, BZH...)? My gut is Yes but it would contradict the market force and the continuing virus-spiraling down sub-prime mortgage situation that affects many other industries as well.
The short answer is yes. To paraphrase Warren Buffett and other value investors, you simply must buy stocks when the fear in the market (or a sector) reaches a crescendo.