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Is Disney's stock headed for a fall?

A recent article at Barron's Online about media and theme-park operator Disney (NYSE: DIS) seems to imply that now might not be the best time to purchase shares of the Mouse. Chief Financial Officer Tom Staggs and General Counsel Alan Braverman each reported selling over 100,000 Disney shares not long ago. According to the article, this was the first sale for both in over two years.

Shareholders should certainly take note of this event. And potential investors should really take note. On the surface, the sales appear to portend a negative track for the stock. Plus, it reminds me of a call made by some analysts at Citigroup a little while ago. They devised an options trade based on the belief that the stock wouldn't be much above $37 per share come October. After all, no matter how well Disney seems to be doing in this rough economy, it might eventually get derailed by it. Now that I see some insiders lightening their stock loads, I can't help but begin to wonder.

So, what am I doing in terms of my Disney position? Nothing, to be honest. I'm in it for the long term (as of now, anyway). However, I probably won't initiate any new buys right now, because I think it's entirely possible that the stock could be heading lower during the summer trading sessions. If you've been looking at Disney but haven't bought yet, you better do some more due diligence before pulling the trigger. With gas prices pretty steep around the country, and with movie content having a bit of a problem right now -- see my thoughts on Disney's Prince Caspian -- Disney could, as many articles have suggested, be facing some difficult quarters. Simply put, the insider transactions don't do a lot in terms of inspiring confidence.

Disclosure: I own shares of Disney; positions can change at any time.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+44.2910,291.26
NASDAQ+15.822,166.90
S&P 500+5.501,098.51

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 04:57 PM

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